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Your TSP Stocks Dropped in February: Did You Learn Anything?

Thank you

Project Manager
HUD
Fri Mar 2, 2007 10:33 AM

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Thank you so much for evaluating the market. I took your advice and moved my other funds into the G fund before the market downturn.

L-Funds

Director
NCUA
Fri Mar 2, 2007 11:02 AM

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Although many of us still under the CSRS program are looking at TSP as supplmental retirement income source or just a reserve, until two years ago, I lived with the angst of trying to maximize my growth with the majority of my funds in the C Fund, since I did not start TSP until 2 or 3 years after it was put in place.

Since transferring my entire C fund portfolio to the L 2020, I have not been stressed out at all with the recent market fluctuations. I still contribute the maximum, plus the over 50 ito the L 2030 for a little more growth. An annual return difference of 100 to 150 bp between the L 2020 and the C fund is worth the comfort level I have.

For you younger employees, CSRS or FERS, force yourself to max out your TSP eligibility...you will never regret it, and as you get closer to your retirement, you will feel better about your financial prospects.

Stock market hiccup

Senior Attorney
Social Security Administration
Fri Mar 2, 2007 11:08 AM

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The recent drop in the stock market of approximately 400 points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average was mostly a reaction to a bigger percentage drop in the stock market in Shanghai. It made no sense for the U.S. investors to pay any attention to the stock market in Shanghai, becasue that is not a genuine market in any meaningful sense. Apparently everyone forget that China is still a communist country and that the Chinese goverment is the majority shareholder in all Chinese corporations. Anyone who lost there nerve and sold probably doesn't have the psychological makeup to be invested in common stocks to begin with. After a brief correction, the market will recover, and for anyone who plans to remain invested in something for more than about five years or so, common stocks are still the place to be.

Re: Stock market hiccup

AUSA
DOJ
Fri Mar 2, 2007 1:21 PM
Good Advise. Sometimes I think the best approach is to set an asset allocation you are comfortable with for the long run and then don't even look at the markets' daily price swings on the news. Maybe check it once or twice a year and ignore the "noise" of the daily gyrations. If you can do that you may have peace of mind and avoid panic selling and panic buying and loosing money all the way around. In a sence ignorance of daily fluxuations may be bliss.

The Time Frame for Short Term

Technician
SPAWARSYSCEN
Fri Mar 2, 2007 11:29 AM

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But, if you are going to retire in the next several years (or would really like to retire in that time),
Can you explain what several years mean in terms of time? I hope to retire in 3 years 10 months. Would this be considered several years and having 45% in the risky funds with FERS at this time of my life be prudent in your opinion?
I appreciate all of your articles very much! And I also value your opinions!

Re: The Time Frame for Short Term

AUSA
DOJ
Fri Mar 2, 2007 3:03 PM
There really are no right or wrong answers to asset allocation since this is such a highly personal decision based on risk tollerance, other retirement funding sources outside the TSP, life style plans, other pensions, working spouces, inheritance, etc. I guess that in the extreme you could say some allocations are a bit foolish---like 100% in "I" just as you retire ("TSP as a casino") but even then if you had very good income streams from other sources and a strong stomach and TSP was just an extra investment and not an income source vital to live on(some people fit this category) then even that may be ok, but I certainly would not recommend it. But perhaps the best advise in addition to doing what is right for you based on individual circumstances is to consider the "L" Funds that match your retirement date--this is based on reliable expert analysis--it may not make you very rich but it will likely keep you safe.

Feeling

Gov Worker
DOD
Fri Mar 2, 2007 1:44 PM

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Last week I had a feeling and moved everything to the fixed income fund. I still will have new contributions going into places where I had them before. It's always good to pick up bargains on sale. It seems to me as if the author had been attempting to warn people.

Re: Feeling

retired civil engineer
usfs
Sat Mar 3, 2007 3:22 PM
Let us know when you "feel" like moving from your L income, just before the markets go up, into higher risk. I'd like to catch that "feeling" too. Thanks!

It was bad for me....

Another Government Employee
Does it matter?
Fri Mar 2, 2007 2:47 PM

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I used to have all my money in G Funds but I was not making any. So in November I started to move around my money. I had $33000 at the time, I spread the money amoung the funds specially S&I funds, and got to 36,159.00, a gain of $3,159 but $1703 of this gain was from my own money (my contributions), so my gains have really been $ 1456 in two months but then I've lost $1,052.03 in the last 3 days since I did not want to panick, so in 2 months I've earned only $403.97. So what did I do today, I moved all my moolah back to the G fund until I see some type of stablization again with all the remaining funds. It was black February for me.

Re: It was bad for me....

Lead Investigator
SSA
Wed Mar 14, 2007 8:43 AM
Invest your money in the C, S, and I funds and leave it there! When the market drops, you will incur only a PAPER loss; when you "sell" or move the funds when encountering a dip, you incur REAL losses.

FEELING

GOV WORKER
DOD
Sun Mar 4, 2007 4:50 PM

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I am sorry that I did not share my feeling. If I did and the market went up I would look foolish. People forget that markets can go through corrections. I had to manage my Mother's money before she passed and I made a bit of money for her over the years. When interest is low, stocks will grow. The cheap money is plentiful, yet we are seeing an increase in mortgage foreclosures. Incomes are down,and people are in hock to their eyeballs. Right now Bonds look good to me. However, as a guy not yet 40 I still think I should put new money in the market to dollar cost average and keep the bulk of the nest egg in a fixed income type fund. I did this with my mother's money and it almost never failed. When the money grows to a large amount cash out and put in a safe place to protect yourself from market corrections and still dollar cost average the rest of the time. Not magic, not really timing the market. It's just not letting it all ride....

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