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TSP Interfund Transfers Soar in January

Bouncing Ball

DRA
Homeland Security
Tue Mar 4, 2008 2:09 PM

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Forget the terminology "market timing", and use "contrarian timing" instead. Buy when everyone's selling (usually the third day of deep losses) and sell when everyone's breathing a sigh of relief and coasting along, believing the market will do just fine. Basically, the ball bounces lower 3 times, each time lower than the previous bounce -- just wait for the third low bounce for the lowest price. After the third bounce, buyers normally come back, called bottom-fishing. I had 100% in the G Fund at the first of the year, then bought into the I-fund on the worst two days, January 22 and 23 (50% each day), and then sold 100% back into the G Fund last Friday when I saw that we were looking at another cycle of a lower bouncing ball. Total profit 4.6% - not bad for a two-month investment. And no financial penalty for frequent trading. I'm not claiming it will happen again, but if I can repeat last year's "contrarian timing" of 13.6% profit (excludes my contributions), I'll be content.

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