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Following the Herd? TSP Investors Moving Billions into the G Fund

Market Loss and the Sleep Factor

Realty Specialist
Corps of Engineers
Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:44 AM

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Everyone has to have an idea of their own investment strategy, whether it's a herd follower or agressive moves in a down market. I'm a believer in the strategy that works best is the one that lets you sleep at night.

I went to all G fund two years ago

Civilian Pay Tech
GSA
Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:51 AM

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I sleep a lot better. My peace of mind is worth more than all the gold in the world. If you have a calm outlook good health will follow. Simplify your life--quit chasing the false hope your riches will bring you happiness. Simplify your expenses--stop buying useless possessions to justify your thinking you are better than your fellow man. We all will pass away one day and you can't take it with you. By the by I noticed the last time the "I" fund was at 13 and change was 2004. You are in for a long and stressful wait.

Re: I went to all G fund two years ago

Program Specialist
ACF
Wed Oct 15, 2008 1:16 PM
Why does the wait have to be stressful? Gather up additional shares now why it is low.

There is a difference in chasing and informed investing.

Risk tolerance and time

rick
DCMA
Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:16 AM

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All investing should be done based on risk tolerance and time. Since I'm a contrarian and don't plan on retiring for 10 years, I see this as an opportunity to minimize my investment cash investment and maximize the potential for return. Since no-one can accurately predict the bottom of the current market or when stocks will once again move upward, taking your money off the table at this point just means a loss of potential income when the market begins to turn. Now is a great time to buy since the stocks are reduced in value, and if you have time, the history has been a greater piece of return for those on the leading edge of recovery. Since the market will not return fully while Hussein is in office (his policies are anti-market), we can look for the market upswing sometime in the later half of his administration or the first half of Sarah's.

Re: Risk tolerance and time

Program Specialist
ACF
Wed Oct 15, 2008 1:20 PM
Very well said. I would like to see what the share price would be if the herd would have set still. The herd mentality is responsible for several dollars of the drop.

Shhhh!!!!!!! Don't tell them though, when they artifically drive the price down it adds money to our pockets.

In the G Fund, but Not Following the Herd

Retiring Soon (I hope)
US Forest Service
Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:16 AM

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... and I kind of resent the implication that if you moved to the G fund you're just a dumb animal following the herd. If I were in my twenties, or even thirties, maybe even forties and had years to go to retirement, I'd stick it out in some of the riskier funds. But I'm not. Because I started my career after I raised a family, I've already worked past the usual retirement age, and may have to work even longer than I anticipated.

I don't follow the market closely. What I hear about it is whatever is on the news. And the market experts on the news I listen to (PBS) have said repeatedly, if you're young and have years to recoup your losses, stay the course. But if you're close to retirement, you shouldn't be in today's market if you can get out of it. I didn't make my decision to move to the G fund based on this, however. It just reinforced my decision.

Re: In the G Fund, but Not Following the Herd

DoD Civ
AF
Thu Oct 16, 2008 9:48 AM
I've only put in 15 years and when I could start my TSP I put it all in the G fund from the start. Several years ago I have only put 30% of it in the C fund. Most of my retirement is in the G Fund. I also, have a Roth IRA and some other investments. I'm not just putting my money into the TSP system alone. I'm doing OK.

TSP Gardening

engineer
Air Force
Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:22 AM

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The only thing more wrong are the experts advising people to "wait it out". Get out of things that lose money when they start losing money, not after you have lost so much it hurts! You don't stay in a boat when it sinks.

The inflation and deflation cycle is managed by the financial interests (FRB!) to make sure they don't lose money. It is cyclic, but irregular. You must watch the economy like the weather and seasons and your savings like a garden. Don't leave your flowers outside during a freeze!

Calculate the time and money you spend on your vacation, sports, hobbies, and recreation and put 10% towards learning about the economy and financial markets.

I have been in G Fund since early in the year. I made one transfer to F for a few days. My account value is the highest it has ever been. I will go back into the other funds when the weather is past.

investment choices

nrc
custodian
Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:32 AM

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Where are all of the dopes who were complaining about the frequent transfer in/out of funds or that investing was intended to be long term. It would be nice to have that feature now wouldn't it?

Re: investment choices

Program Specialist
ACF
Wed Oct 15, 2008 1:25 PM
I'm not a dope but:

Investing is long term

Trading is short term

I see you are a custodian, I'm sure you are good at your job.

Re: investment choices

programmer
tso
Wed Oct 15, 2008 7:22 PM
"I see you are a custodian, I'm sure you are good at your job."

What's that got to do with anything?

Re: investment choices

analyst
DOD
Wed Oct 15, 2008 8:57 PM
Hey Program Specialist - you mind telling us why you think it's important to point out that our friend from the nrc is a custodian??

Re: investment choices

Program Specialist
ACF
Thu Oct 16, 2008 7:42 AM
Yeah, I disagree with the frequent in/out trading and I do invest for the long term.
I think he needs to keep his day job. I was referred to as a dope, so I launched it back.

Re: investment choices

analyst
DOD
Thu Oct 16, 2008 5:53 PM
"I was referred to as a dope, so I launched it back. "

This is misleading. the nrc custodian was referring to a large group of people by behavior. You took it to him/her personally. There is a significant difference.

Re: investment choices

employee
FED GOVT
Wed Oct 29, 2008 11:29 AM
That was funny Program Specialist...

Moving Funds in TSP

CAS
DOD
Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:07 AM

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While stationed in Germany last year and hearing of the UK government overtaking the first bank to fault, I moved all my funds to the G fund from the I fund where I had 80% of my TSP. When I moved out of the I fund it was almost $22 a share. What is it now $14. I don't think I will be in any fund other than the G since I am less tahn two years out from retiring. If I had a longer time to go I would definately be pouring money into the I, S and C funds right now. The object is to buy low and sell high. The stock market has about bottomed out IMHO.

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