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Has Your TSP Hit Bottom Yet?

No

Engineer
FAA
Mon Oct 27, 2008 9:21 AM

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It has not, and still has a ways to go (historically speaking)

G Fund or C Fund?

Materials Handler
Dept. of Interior Bureau of Land Management
Mon Oct 27, 2008 9:54 AM

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As a late in life Federal Employee, I am taking a risk and putting all ($50,000) of my TSP into the C Fund. I believe the stock market gain in my last 3 years will be more profitable than in the G fund. By luck, I bought on the day the stock market was at it's lowest so far.

BEAR MARKET

Sys Engr
FAA
Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:10 AM

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From Jonathan Burton's article, CBS Marketwatch, 10/26/08:

"Unloading stocks in bear-market rallies will only lock in your losses. You lose sight of the fact that time in the market, not timing the market, determines financial success. Investment horizons that were considered in years become measured in minutes, pushing you into panicked decisions you wouldn't make in a calmer situation. "Investors think 'I'll get out now and then I'll get back in when this market has bottomed,'" said Scott Kays, an investment adviser in Atlanta. "They're fooling themselves," he added. "You're changing your strategic allocation because of a change in your circumstances. That's market timing, and I've never seen anybody do that consistently."

Re: BEAR MARKET

I am From Missouri
DoD
Mon Oct 27, 2008 11:50 AM
There is a new herd mentality. It looks like the new herd mentality is to follow the advisors who almost unanomously unnanosmoly, unaanamosly, er 100% say stick it out. Maybe the herd is wrong again by sticking it out. I have read that the true bottom will not be reached until those who have been sticking it out give up in desparation, disparation, desperation...er futility. I don't see that we have reached that point yet--not even close--in large part because of the "stick it out" advisors.

buying stocks

IT SPEC
DOE
Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:36 AM

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I made my second move for the month of October from G into the stock market this morning.

I just went from 60% stocks to 70% stocks. I'm going to keep doing this while the market is taking.

I have ten years before I will start tapping into the TSP funds, I'm 52 and plan to retire at 56 and postpone the pension until I'm 60.

I also have a large emergency fund outside of the retirement accounts. With the FERS pension and SS plus a Government job and a sizeable about of money in I bonds and money market accounts I think I can take on the risk.

Noboody really knows what the bottom will be

HR Specialist
NASA
Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:48 AM

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I was once tempted to jump into the market and buy some Lucent stock, because some market turmoil and earnings disappointments had caused the market price to drop substantially. Money magazine included a quote in an article on "bargain" stocks for value investors, saying "At only $40 per share, Lucent is tantalizingly cheap." They were sure the bottom had been reached. Fortunately, I procrastinated and "failed" to take advantage of the bargain, or I would have lost 90 percent of my money.
The TSP account is not "fun money" for FERs investors... thanks to the change from CSRS, the money in the TSP will mean the difference between a fairly comfortable retirement and a miserable one full of choices between paying for prescriptions or the heating bill.
Nobody gets rich on the G fund, but they don't go broke there, either. Over a 30 to 40 year career, the G fund's ability to avoid the dips can look very good, compared to the roller coaster ride the others provide.
Be CAREFUL!

Good luck

Mechanical Technitian
NIST
Mon Oct 27, 2008 11:22 AM

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Telling people to stay in the market, and limiting our moves last October was horrible. I got out last January, and am looking for my place to get back in. The Market will tell us when the time is right. Just look at were the money is going. Good luck.

Develop a phase in plan

Retired
DOC
Mon Oct 27, 2008 12:32 PM

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It is correct that you can't time the market. What you need is a plan to gently phase into the market. A shift in increments over time. For this the TSP trading limits can be your friend by helping you stay on your plan. You have to be ready to accept some decline in the near term with the expectation that you will be in the fund when the turnaround happens and the procrastinators pile into stocks.

In the near term, volatility is the plan of the day. I expect a nasty decline if Obama wins as people adjust to his planned tax and spend regime as well as the forecast "crisis" created to test him. Outside of politics, this holiday season looks to be dismal for retail.

Re: Develop a phase in plan

Tomato Grower
Oaklandon Road
Tue Oct 28, 2008 7:00 AM
The market has already discounted Obama's election. It is forward looking not backward or focused on the present. Part of this large drop--not all--is the Obama factor.
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