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As the Market Drops, Expect Doomsday Scenarios and Transferring to Safety of the G Fund

Your Doomsday Prophecy

Unkle Sam
Independent Agency
Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:45 AM

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I have to chuckle every time you start dispensing investment advice since you usually don't know what you are talking about. The old adage that "you can't time the market" will hold true even in this bear market. The conventional wisdom is to continue funding your TSP account at the same levels, according to your same plan, since you are now buying shares of stock on sale. When the rally comes (and it will eventually come), you will realize a sizable profit, while thise who shifted everything to the G fund will be left holding the bag.

Re: Your Doomsday Prophecy

manager
Dod Agency
Tue Nov 25, 2008 11:10 AM
As I understand your comment, you don't like the free articles we see on this site giving out information that many of us would not ever see because you tell the author "you usually don't know what you are talking about." But, from having read the article, the author suggests people reallocate their funds to put more into stocks since the market is down. That is the same thing you are saying--even though you tell say the author doesn't know what he is talking about.

Perhaps you should read the article before dispensing the criticism or perhaps it is just more fun to pontificate with self-righteous criticism of others without taking the time to read what you are criticizing.

Why can't we just appreciate the information that is given to us through this free site that seems to have a ton of info for federal employees without whining about everything?

Re: Your Doomsday Prophecy

Civil Engineer
VHA
Tue Nov 25, 2008 3:41 PM
The buy and hold "at any cost" philosophy......

2 things - you're assuming the market will recover as fast as it went down. (Unlikely considering the structural economic problems worldwide.) the second assumption is that people with money in the G fund won't think to move it back.

My TSP has gained $17K since I moved it all into the G fund last December - when you couple that with the fact that the C fund has lost about 50% since then, I don't have to pick the "bottom" to come out ahead.

Re: Your Doomsday Prophecy

Electronic Tech.
USPS
Mon Jan 5, 2009 9:26 AM
Left holding the bag??- If I had left my TSP untouched in stead of moving it all into "G" fund at the end of January I would have lost a little over $100k. As it was I lost only about $10k. I would hate to think how long it would of taken me to recover my lost money, 10-15 yrs? I will keep an eye on thing and when it starts to improve for more than 1 or 2 weeks, then I may venture into the other funds.+ 3-4% is still much better then -45 to-50%.

Response to article

Aviation Safety Professional
FAA
Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:56 AM

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I know it's difficult to come up with new material for your articles but tell us something we don't already know. Go out on a limb and provide us with useful information if you can. We can get this kind of information at any number of web sites.

Respectfully

Re: Response to article

IT Specialist
USDA
Tue Nov 25, 2008 6:31 PM
Really? In that case, please list all of the other sites that provide detailed statistics on the amount of money moved into and out of the TSP funds. I would like to read those sites as well.

TSP Value

Tomato Grower
Oaklandon Road
Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:58 AM

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I would like to know the overall value of TSP investments at the beginning of 2008 compared to now. Just curious. It would also be instructive and/or academic to also compare the overall valuation of the stock market in the 2 same periods. We could compare to see if TSP investors acted in similar fashion as the overall markets.

Back to the greenhouse. The government rarely bails out backyard tomato growers.

Re: TSP Value

Everyday Jane
VHA
Tue Nov 25, 2008 11:13 AM
They certainly didn't back to tomatoe growers that lost alll of the crops due to the salmanila outbreak this last summer.

Re: TSP Value

Engineer
DOD
Tue Nov 25, 2008 2:09 PM
Salmanila? Isn't that the capital of the Philippines? Or no, maybe it's the color of those stupid interoffice mail envelopes. I forget...

Duration of Bear Market

Medical Officer
Centers of Medicare and Medicaid Services
Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:59 AM

Post Reply

Seems to me that if either of the Money magazine predictions is correct, anyone with a 5 year or greater investing horizon should just stay put and continue to buy equities. That's certainly what I am doing.

Re: Duration of Bear Market

PitbullDad
DOD
Tue Nov 25, 2008 2:22 PM
I'm with Medical Officer. I am retirement eligible (CSRS Age 55 with 31 yrs). Figured I would retire in the next 1-3 years, but draw TSP in 2015, so I favored the more aggressive approach and went 100% in L-2020 a year ago, and don't plan to change a thing.

Diversification

Adminstrative Assistant
I.R.S.
Tue Nov 25, 2008 10:01 AM

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I have been to many, many financial seminars over the last 2 years. Each has preached the same theme, diversification, diversification, diversification. I have done that in my TSP fund. Even though the immediate future looks grim, all the stats I have obtained from those seminars have proven over the long haul, I will be fine when I retire in 4 years. I keep telling myself, "Look at all the stock you are buying cheap" right now! The market is what it is, but history has shown it has always recovered.

Current Allocations

Retired
DoD
Tue Nov 25, 2008 10:01 AM

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If there ever was a time NOT to be putting your current allocations into the G Fund, this is that time.

There are a lot of reasons, and Ralph atriculated many of them, why someone might want to seek the security of the G Fund with their nest egg, but don't miss the buying opportunity in the stock funds now. You have a lot to win, and very little to lose by putting future allocations into stock funds now.

Should I move from G to I?

Comms Op
DON
Tue Nov 25, 2008 10:26 AM

Post Reply

Checking my TSP has always been difficult. First, get username, then get password. I would always lose one before receiving the other. For the last five years, I hadn't checked my TSP, until a couple weeks ago.

All my money is in the G fund, and WOW! It sure adds up when you don't pay attention to it. However, with the I fund down, and considering that I now have money to move, I'm wondering if I should shift some money to the I fund, since it is so low, and since, concievably, it will eventually go back up.

Or will it? My question is this: Are the stocks in the I fund locked in? Or could the powers that be decide to (while the stocks are down) drop companies q, x, and c, and invest in companies b, l, and h? The current companies in the I fund have gone down, so, one would think, the same companies will eventually go up. If I could count on that, I might shift some money. But if the essence of the fund might change, then I will sit on it. Anyone have any advice?

Re: Should I move from G to I?

Civil Engineer
VHA
Tue Nov 25, 2008 3:45 PM
Those companies in the I fund will go back up - unless of course they go into bankruptcy, then that stock is worthless. I made a considerable amount of money in the I fund last year - now is not the time to be in the I fund.
Total Comments: 48
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