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Gloom, Doom, Bear Markets and Your Future Retirement

Down 14.42% Vs S&P 39%

Acountant, Retired
DOE, Albuquerque
Tue Dec 16, 2008 9:54 AM

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I'm down 14.42% which puts me in the top 3% of 1400 balanced funds as recorded by Bloombberg. Since 2001 I've averaged in the top 7%. Don't guess what the futures going to do, just follow the trend. Im never less than 30% in the market and never more than 70%. Right now im 30%

TSP

Reformed Conservative
DFAS
Tue Dec 16, 2008 10:02 AM

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Ralph, is there any legislation pending to restore CSRS? Unfortunately by the time I was hired there was no choice but to gamble your retirement on the stock market--it was TSP or nothing!

Re: TSP

Diversity Manager
DOL
Tue Dec 16, 2008 5:18 PM
The only legislation I'm aware of is to eliminate gov't match on TSP to more parallel the private sector. Employees there only have 1 a defined benefit or 401 but not both. The taxpayers should pay for only 1 benefit

Re: TSP

Program Specialist
ACF
Wed Dec 17, 2008 8:35 AM
The taxpayers are only paying for 1 benefit. Your defined benefit was cut in half to pay for the 5% match. By cutting the defined benefit in half that reduces the govts obligation, and increases your obligation to your own retirement. The govt is paying the same or less but it is coming in 2 forms with less obligation to the Fed govt.

Don't Put All Your Tomatoes In One Basket

Tomato Grower
Oaklandon Road
Tue Dec 16, 2008 10:16 AM

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Diversify. That is the watchword. I'm told that for some nowadays that means putting your money under more than one mattress and burying your gold in more than one hole in the backyard.

For me, that also means paying down that mortgage; the only safe, interest free investment going right now. Pay it all off and give yourself a monthy check. Instead of writing it to the mortgage company, write it to yourself. The tax write-off is insignificant compared to the benefit. I'm also told not to invest or spend soley for tax reasons. I agree with what I have been told.

Buy Now!

Personnel Officer
Commerce
Tue Dec 16, 2008 11:15 AM

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Hey people... stocks are on sale. We love stuff that is on sale, don't we? We should be looking at this as an opportunity to buy at rock bottom prices. Keep your funds diversified, but buy while the getting is good!

Re: Buy Now!

Budget Analyst
Garrison
Tue Dec 16, 2008 1:11 PM
I totally agree. I plan to use my pay raise to increase my TSP. I love bargains and stocks are definitely a bargain right now. Most investors, including my favorite consumer guru, Clark Howard, says buy stocks now unless you need the money within the next 5-10 years. Quit looking at your dollar balance and start watching how your shares are increasing.

Re: Buy Now!

CO
SSA
Wed Dec 17, 2008 8:46 AM
Ditto to that. Perfect opportunity to buy. Can't wait for my COLA so I can add more to TSP.

Can't understand the mentality of people who go back in the market AFTER it recovers.

Happy Investing!

Re: Buy Now!

Electronics Engineer
FCC
Wed Dec 17, 2008 12:00 PM
In previous posts, I said I would post when the short term (s/t) and long term (l/t) trends of the indices that underlie the TSP funds changed. All trends for the F,C,S & I Funds have been downwards almost all year (continuously since May). On Nov 28, the s/t trend of AGG (F Fund) changed to upwards, and still is today. The l/t trend of AGG is still downwards, but is in the process of changing. On Dec 5, I transfered a small portion (10%) of my balance into the F Fund. (I have low risk tolerance because I'm retirement eligible in 6 months.) The l/t trends for C,S & I funds are still down, but the s/t trends began changing last week. They haven't turned upwards yet, and no guarantee that they will. Summary: You should have TSP money in the G and F Funds now. AGG has not gone above 103, so you should get out of F when the current s/t trend ends. You should be poised to transfer a small % into C,S &/or I funds if their s/t trend turns up; could happen in next week or 2.

Is the TSP a giant Ponzi scheme too? No but close

Civilian Pay Tech
GSA
Tue Dec 16, 2008 11:24 AM

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Lets see...Ponzi by definition is the money paid out is from what is being put in. No, it doesn't quite fit the difinition but certainly outside of the G Fund if investors don't continue to contribute to the various fund then the funds won't go up as fast as they could go up. So lets all get gassed about this dead horse and inflate the carcass (of course it may leak).

Dollar Cost Averaging

AV Specialist
OPM
Tue Dec 16, 2008 11:37 AM

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No mention of dollar cost averaging. I'm leaving my TSP alone in the 2020 fund. I don't retire for awhile. I'm buying shares at cheap rates right now. When the Bull market returns, all these shares I'm buying at low rates will take a hugh leap. I will recover what I lost in this Bear market and be further ahead in the long run that putting my money in the G fund.

Stock Market

Social Science Analyst
DoD
Tue Dec 16, 2008 2:22 PM

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The extra income stocks are likely to provide? How about the extra LOSSES they are likely to provide? This country is about to go into even more debt just as the boomers are starting to retire, an unprecedented situation. Don't just look at the history of the S&P 500, which is about where it was 10 years ago despite all the confident talk back then about "put your money in stocks if you don't need it for another 5 years." Look also at the Nikkei, which is well below where it was 20 years ago. It CAN happen here.

Re: Stock Market

Project Leader
DoD
Thu Dec 18, 2008 4:04 PM
Interesting observation, SSA. In that scenario, the enthusiastic chartologists and historical data watchers jumping into the market because stocks are 'on sale' may find themselves in a 'buy low, sell even lower' situation. Not a pleasant prospect.
Total Comments: 19
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