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TSP Stock Funds Zooming Up in March

Not One To Panic--Eligible to Retire NOW (CSRS)

Civil Servant
DOD
Wed Mar 25, 2009 9:36 AM

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I have overheard many in the office move over to G fund 100% in the past two months, and if you watch Glen Beck on Fox News, he has said the same, get out of stocks and protect what you have left.

However, that seems to be a short term panic strategy that won't work and has never worked. I am eligible to retire NOW, but have kept my bulk in L-2020, with new money going 25% each into F, G, L-income, and L-2010. I am going to stay the course for now. If the market rebounds to about half what it was (say, Dow 10K-11K) I may divide the L-2020 50/50 with L-2010, but I plan to keep it as is expecting a return to where it was by the time I plan to use it--three to five years.

Yes, it would have been nice to retire (CSRS) and have this monthly supplement, but NSPS was good to me FY 2008, enough so to consider a High-3, retiring in 01/2012.

Anyone else wanting to weigh in that is close to or eligible to retire?

Re: Not One To Panic--Eligible to Retire NOW (CSRS)

Acountant, Retired GS 14
DOE, Albuquerque
Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:12 AM
U r wrong. I gradually move into and out of stocks to income and have been in the top 7% of performers for all balanced mutual funds as measured by Bloomberg Financial (over 1500 funds) since 2001. I am down 16% since Januarary 2008 which means i have to go up 19% to break even. If you stayed in the S&P, you are down 42% and have to go up 72% to brek even. Warren buffet does not bstrictly buy and old either

Re: Not One To Panic--Eligible to Retire NOW (CSRS)

CR
SSA
Wed Mar 25, 2009 5:27 PM
I'm elgible to retire and I'm under CSRS. The TSP is a supplement for me, but just the same I know of some FERS employees who don't contribute to the TSP despite the match of part of their contributions. I'm glad I didn't switch over when a lot of pressure was being put on CSRS employees to switch over to FERS. I was suspicious and I'm glad that I stood my ground. It's good to see that FERS employees will at least be able to cash out sick leave balances at retirement.

WHAT TO DO

CIVIL SERVANT #2
DOD
Wed Mar 25, 2009 10:29 AM

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if you have all of your money in the g fund, would it be wise to move 20% to the c fund now?

Re: WHAT TO DO

Civil Servant
DOD
Fri Mar 27, 2009 7:05 AM
There is no one "right" answer. It depends on a lot of variables. One of the primary ones is what is your "time horizon" (i.e., when do you plan to draw on the funds)? What is your risk tolerance? Are you an active or passive investor? You can often get a one hour free consultation with a certified financial planner.

Many banks actually offer this service. Contact your local branch for more information. Of course, they will provide information on investment options to determine if your financial portfolio meets your present and future needs, but usually if they are salaried, it's informative, not high pressure.

FERS

IT Spec
DOE
Wed Mar 25, 2009 10:31 AM

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I can retire under FERS in four years with 20 years of service and age 56. It will depend on the inflation rates as my pension won't get a COLA until I'm 62.

I quit buying into the G fund in October and am only putting new money into the C,S and I funds. I think the best returns over the next five years will be with stocks.

If I'm wrong, I'll keep working.

Re: FERS

Acountant, Retired GS 14
DOE, Albuquerque
Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:14 AM
The S&P is down 21% since October. You will have to make 27% to break even

Will TSP improve or is it a temporary upswing?

Gov Analyst
Navy
Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:26 AM

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Pat Robertson's financial recommendation is that the stock increase is temporary and will plummet at least one more time. When is the right time to move money back in stock funds or L funds, now or 6 months from now? I did transfer all to G fund last June but I know G fund does not keep up with inflation; I can retire this year but decided to stay 4 more years for full 40. Susie Orman recommends retirees keep about 30 percent in stock market long term in order to keep pace with inflation.

Re: Will TSP improve or is it a temporary upswing?

Acountant, Retired GS 14
DOE, Albuquerque
Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:57 AM
Is PaT Robertson a Certified Financial Planner? The world at 1 AD was not a capitilist system. Stock wasn't invented until 1700's. In Jesus time the economic system was a Monarchcal/Monopoly/Mechatile System. Robertson should stick to preaching. He is not competent to teach invement and could be sued for doing so.

ZOOM

HR Specialist
Dept of Labor
Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:42 AM

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Yep, it's zooming up so that I am only down $30,000. I'm just glad that I stayed in CSRS. Therefore, I am only dependent upon the TSP money for extras, not survival.

I'm also glad that I switched new deposits to G-Fund while it was starting to plunge, so that I wasn't throwing good money after bad. If this upward trend stays around for another month, I will THINK ABOUT diversifying my new investments. Until then, I am happy watching some of my money come back, while staying safe with the new money.

C Fund

IT Specialist
USDA
Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:50 AM

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After losing over $5000 in the last four weeks in the "C" fund, I moved my money to the "G" and "F" fund. It may not be the best for returns, but at least I am not bleeding money anymore. I will stand pat for now.

Re: C Fund

UL Manager
ICE
Wed Mar 25, 2009 1:12 PM
Unfortunately, that kind of thinking is for day-traders. You weren't bleeding anyhting---you were buying very cheap stocks.

It looks as if you and the others have bought high/sold low.

I bought C Fund shares at rock bottom prices. I'm in it for the long haul...

What is you point?

Software Engineer
US Army
Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:07 PM

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Why write this article? The TSP is for long term investment. Your article seems to imply that we should be day-traders, something the managers of TSP have tried to discourage. What does a 10% monthly gain get you when you have lost 50% in the prior year and more in the first 2 months of this year? I moved 80% of my stock funds into G and F funds 18 months ago, so didn't loose what some others did. Just trying to figure when we hit a bottm so that I can buy back in to C, S, and I funds. If the current administration keeps trying to spend our way out of a recession, then I don't think we will ever see a bottom to the market.

Re: What is you point?

HR Specialist
NASA
Wed Mar 25, 2009 5:56 PM
The "Current Administration" is trying to HELP America recover from one of the biggest transfers of wealth in history, from normal people to the monied class that King George and people like him think America is all about.

We can do a lot to balance the budget by keeping taxes low on people who PRODUCE something, but TAX the heck out of the "money changers at the temple" who made billions on SHORT SALES during this crisis. If their contribution to the greatness of America is limited to sitting behind a stock trader's computer terminal and profiting hugely from the losses of others, then let's tax their "EXCESS" profits at about 90 percent.

Re: What is you point?

Retired Fed
None
Thu Mar 26, 2009 7:25 AM
NASA - Spoken like a true populist. I'm moved...just not in your direction. This is a bi-partisan plundering.

Re: What is you point?

Civil Servant
DOD
Thu Mar 26, 2009 2:17 PM
I think that Software Engineer, US Army, hit the nail on the head--that TSP is for long term investors, not day traders. Just like CR, SSA, TSP is a supplement for me, the "frosting on the cake."

Accountant (BEAN COUNTER) GS-14 Retired, DOE Albuquerque doesn't seem to value a long term approach to investments, and is bragging about beating the system.

To the extent BEAN COUNTER is ahead of the game, congratulations. However, there are just as many amateur investors that are behind the "8 ball" trying to "outguess" the market, or making moves because they are panicking. That's my point.

BEAN COUNTER, you missed it.
Total Comments: 27
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