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Six Straight Months of Gains for C Fund

Come on! Part I.

employee
fed govt
Wed Sep 2, 2009 9:27 AM

Post Reply

Good article until you went company line:

"...Perhaps this September will be different. For those investors who invest in various funds or in a lifecycle fund each pay period, there is presumably no cause for concern.

But, for those investors who delight in moving their money into our out of funds at different times to try and predict the ups and downs of the market, there is reason to be wary..."

Like the Life cycle funds did not lose any money Tuesday's (9/1) 185 point drop.

Continued.

Re: Come on! Part I.

lr specialist
civilian agency
Wed Sep 2, 2009 9:47 AM
I agree. Anyone who can tell you what the stock market will do tomorrow should definitely act on it.

My only question: If you have this ability, why are you not golfing with Bill Gates and others who have accumulated billions of dollars? You can obviously trade options and make a ton of money every day based on your ability to predict the future. Why waste time in government?

I read various financial publications. None of them can accurately predict the future--although there are plenty of (differing) opinions.

My money is largely in an L fund as it provides instant diversifications. I wish it would never go down but I don't know anyone who can accurately tell me what it will do in the next few days or the next month.

Re: Come on! Part I.

Engineer
FAA
Thu Sep 3, 2009 6:35 AM
I tried

I was one of those day traders you may have read about. I would research overseas markets at night, gather as much data before heading to work, and would take a break at around 10 am each day for a few minutes to scan market trends, consumer issues, and other financial sector news

About 10-15 minutes was all it took along with my nightly research to decide where to move my TSP

I uses $60k. In less than 2 months I had accumulated an additional $16k in TSP earnings (160% annual rate). Compared to the (maybe) $500 I would have gotten @10% interest, this was great. I missed one large upswing, but the timing was superb

It cost me too much sleep each night to keep it up

Plus most FedSmith readers complained a year ago about how day traders were draining their accounts, so the rules were changed

Bottom line, it can be done, but the health costs of doing it alone are too much. A team of bright investors with the right instinct would be golfing with Mr. Gates

Come on! Part II.

employee
fed govt
Wed Sep 2, 2009 9:32 AM

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Market Watch on Wed 9/2: "The stock market's massive spring and summer rally came to a halt Tuesday, with the Dow Jones industrials falling 185 points. The index is down 270 points since Friday, its biggest drop over three days since July 7, when it lost 341 points...confidence remain big concerns.

Though analysts had been expecting a pullback in stocks for weeks, the market continued to carve out modest gains, with the Dow rising eight straight days before Friday, putting in its longest winning streak of the year. But trading was choppy, evidence of investors' growing hesitance to put more money in stocks considering the economy's gradual recovery."

The above is not market timing...called using your head. That is why I got the out Friday (8/28).

C fund returns

Civil Engineer
VA
Wed Sep 2, 2009 10:03 AM

Post Reply

Certainly you don't want to try and time the market, but you need to use your head and look for general trends. In the past 6 months we've seen some nice returns - but on market conditions that aren't based on the economy but rather on optimism.

Do the research - don't just read headlines where an optimistic fed (that has to try and sell American debt to the rest of the world) or CEOs (that have to have consumers start spending again to survive and get their nice stock options) are quoted.

Re: C fund returns

Accountant GS 14 Retired
DOE Albuquerque, NM
Wed Sep 2, 2009 1:01 PM
I totally agree. i weight the funds that are doing well and the c fund is down 28% since january 2008 and I'm only down 1.5%. Since January 2001, the C fund is down 23% and Im up 29%. ( a 59% outperformance) It's not that hard to outperform the market with a little common sense. Even Warren Buffet does not buy and hold.

I must say...

Engineer
FAA
Wed Sep 2, 2009 11:02 AM

Post Reply

... Ralph sure does like his charts.

Civil Engineer @ VA is correct. Todays markets are based on emotion.

I wish they were based on data and mathematics. I could make a fortune.

Re: I must say...

Accountant GS 14 Retired
DOE Albuquerque, NM
Thu Sep 3, 2009 1:04 PM
Or "I guessed wrong" is what you really mean. lol. NEVER GUESS THE MARKEt ...FOLLOW IT!!!

Re: I must say...

GS 735
A really important one.
Sat Sep 5, 2009 1:46 PM
"NEVER GUESS THE MARKEt ...FOLLOW IT"

This presupposes the notion that you know what the market's going to do next (which you don't).

responses

employee
fed govt
Thu Sep 3, 2009 9:12 AM

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lr specialist - It takes money to make money...yes, I am doing great with what I have left to do great with LOLOLOLOLOL. (Paying for junior's college, alimony, etc., most of you know the story...).

Regardless, doing great does not mean I can retire tomorrow. I'll be here with the rest ya's... for quite awhile.

Slow learner (?)...anyway, I have been learning about the market for 20 years. I study trends. For example, did anyone really think the market would not correct after going up 8 straight days? If you did...pls stay out of the market ...and Las Vegas.

I am with you FAA enginer, Civil Engineer, Account Retired. Good luck guys!

TSP: I Fund

Logistics Specialist
Installation management Command
Fri Sep 4, 2009 9:32 AM

Post Reply

Please advise, for the last few days the I fund ended as follows:

3 Sep 09: 51.71
2 Sep 09: 51.31
1 Sep 09: 51.37

How is that when I look at the TSP results on 4 Sep, the I fund reflects a loss [-0.0104]. From previous reslts, every time a fund [C, S, F, I] goes up or down, the TSP pays accordingly with a [gain or a loss].

The opposite happened here on my TSP fund under the I fund. Although the fund ended with a positive, the TSP fund on my daily statement went down.

My email: angel.rolando.rodriguez@us.army.mil

Six Straight Months of Gains for C Fund

Forensic Chemist
U.S. Navy
Sun Sep 6, 2009 8:20 AM

Post Reply

I enjoyed the article, but I found one typographical error: "And in the ten years since 2008"

Re: Six Straight Months of Gains for C Fund

Proofreader
VA
Thu Oct 1, 2009 10:35 AM
Duh! It actually said... "ten years through 2008," meaning something like between 1998 and 2008. No typo.
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