Re: 52 week moving average and the C fund vs B&H

Pulleeese:

Would you translate this into PLAIN ENGLISH?

I am not a "bean counter."

Re: 52 week moving average and the C fund vs B&H

Dear Retired Accountant,

According to my 25 Year old HP 12C 1.9% compounded for 60 years turns one dollar into $3.09, a profit of 209%.

Even including dividends, crossovers are not a compelling strategy given the inevitable whipsaws which can be quite distressing.

Re: 52 week moving average and the C fund vs B&H

Interesting! Where can I find the s&p moving average?

Re: 52 week moving average and the C fund vs B&H

You can find the 52 week moving average on MSN money. Just put in the index, check the 52Week average in the chart
What i meant is that the method beat buy and hold by 2.06% The actual amount was 1600% vs 800% buy and hold (or something like that)

Re: 52 week moving average and the C fund vs B&H

I'm with you. If you are in a speeding car that you know may crash, do you put it in neutral and let it coast...or pump the brakes and change direction. I lucked out by changing directions and made quite a bit. I'm not complaining at all.

Re: 52 week moving average and the C fund vs B&H

Dear Retired Accountant,

Thank you for the clarification on crossover returns.

$1 that turns into $17, a 1600% treturn after 60 years brings the return up to a respectable 4.75% - if you can tolerate the whipsaws.

Have you used this for 60 years>

Re: 52 week moving average and the C fund vs B&H

OK FP Treasury

I didn't keep the final data so i went back an calculated the data

The 52 week average method went up 197 times ($1=$197) or 19700% in 60 years
The Buy and hold average went up 95.6 times. (95600%)

On aveage you trade 2.38 times a year. There is very little wipsaw

WHY DONT YOU TEST THE DATA YOURSELF??? Are you afaid the Objective data will not confirm your prejudces. In any case Im done responding to you.

Re: 52 week moving average and the C fund vs B&H

Turning a dollar into $197 over 60 years sounds impressive: actually it represents a 9.2% annual rate of return - in line with or somewhat better than long-term historical market returns - depending how dividends were treated.

More importantly, in my humble opinion, being out of the market during brutal declines, which is one of the most important strengths of the crossover method, allows you to stay in the game, if you can tolerate the occasional whipsaw.

Aplogies to anyone offended by my analysis.

Re: 52 week moving average and the C fund vs B&H

FP Treasury.

If that is true then buy and hold is less half the 9.2% It also does not include returns of buying treasurys when you are out of the market.

Re: 52 week moving average and the C fund vs B&H

9.2 % sounds about right. Now add 2.5% in dividends and another 1% (low ball estimate) for when you are out of the market and collecting interest on bonds and that comes to 12.7% over 60 years. That meaans you beat the market by 6.1% a year (6.6% is the long term average). Benjamin Graham, arguably considered the greatest investor of all time, beat the market by 2% a year over 40 years. Of course, he didn't have the tools we have.

Re: G Fund and Predicting the Stock Market

Not totally true. "the trend is your friend" The secret is to know when to get in and out. As the market goes down, and bonds go up you can move gradually out (I do 1/10th on a monthly basis) Or you can wait until you go over or under a moving average. I use 52 week average. This works on all broad averages and usually you only trade little over twice a year. i have gone up to 3 years with no moves or as much as 11 times a year.

Re: G Fund and Predicting the Stock Market

You are in sense true in so far as there is a time inconsistency problem associated with markets & the masses.

The thing is to follow the market yourself, not by the masses. As a MarketWatch article stated, "Keeping your composure when the market is failing apart is the true test of your risk tolerance."

Just be up on the news to negate the time inconsistency problem. I moved a majority of my funds out of C, S, and 2040 into G and 2010 about a year before we hit the bottom. By the time the masses moved, it was too close to the bottom, and too expensive to the top.

I think all signs point to another correction by mid 2010. The reason being stocks have gone up because a stock price represents current and future profits. As companies cut jobs they become more efficient, and future profits increase. However that assumes consumption stays at the same level. As more and more are unemployed future profits must decrease with consumption. Gold is signaling the same.

Just my (devalued) $0.02

Re: JUST LEAVE IT ALONE

See my comment in the first comment. test it for youself. You can double your returns by using the 52 week average. Don't take my word. TEST IT FOR YOURSELF. ignoramce is not bliss. Buy and hold and dollar cost averaging are ok if you are lazy or disinterested. but there are better methods if you take a little inititive. No insult intended

Re: JUST LEAVE IT ALONE

Dear Accounting Tech,

For those with a thimble full of knowledge, dollar cost averaging (DCA) is an excellent way to "time the market." It forces you to overcome "fear and greed," two constants in investing, by buying more shares at market lows and fewer at market highs.

By the way DCA can be disastrous for individual securities, FNMA for example.

Re: Information Check

Inflows and outflows i'm not sure. maybe morningstar or posssibly MSN...Google it. The Charts i use are on MSN money. But I believe Yahoo finance may have it too. Use SPY for the S&P (c fund) and VXF for the S fund.
The 52b week average method works for all broad indexes.

Re: Information Check

Dear Project Manager,

I too would like to know if the source for funds flows such as the G Fund referenced in the article is publicly available. This is a good example of what some call a sentiment indicator.

I have used Investors Intelligence survey of Bulls and Bears amongst Investment letter writers for the last 20 years. The only problem is valleys and peaks in Bulls (used as a contrarian signal) or Bears is that they are only visible in hindsight.

Most recently the peak in Bulls ocurred 10/17/2007, at 62% bullish (vs 19.6% bearish), almost spot on with the peak in the market.

Conversely, the peak in Bears ocurred on 10-24-2008 at 54.4% (vs 22.2% bullish). Not a bad signal.

Based on these last two signals, the S&P would have been sold on 10/17/2007 at 1500 and bought back at 877. Currently the S&P is at 1100.

That would have been wonderful except that you wouldn't have known until later that these two signals represented a peak and a valley.

Re: Information Check

Interesting. using the 52 week moving average got you out in December 2008 and got you back in In July 2009. (there was a false indicator that also would have got you in in May 2009 and out again in June 2009.)

There are many ways to make momey in the market. From December 2008 until today I made 28% and the market is down 20%. (all these includes interest and dividends) That is an outperformance of 48%

Re: Information Check

Hello Retired Accountant -

Just want to make sure I'm reading the charts correctly regarding the 52 week moving average for the VXF Fund:
> In April 2003 began trading BELOW 52 week average (should move IN to VXF Fund).
> In November 2007 began trading ABOVE 52 week average(should move OUT of VXF Fund).
> In July 2009 began trading BELOW 52 week average.(should move IN to VXF Fund).

Is that right?

Re: Information Check

CORRECTION:
The 52 week moving average told me to move out in December 2007 not 2008

Re: DAVE TREASURY

Among the C, S & I Funds, which are easier/more difficult to follow (fewer instances of "false indicators") with this 52 week moving average method?

Also, what do you use to follow the I Fund?

Thanks

Re: DAVE TREASURY

OH MY GOD!!!!!!

What in the heck are you all talking about???!!!!!

Why can't I just put my money in the G fund and let it sit there and not ever lose any money???? I have about 400K so far.......

Re: DAVE TREASURY

I find this approach interesting. Can you please tell me if you use the exponential moving average or the simple moving average for your indicator? Also what is the symbol for the I find?

Re: DAVE TREASURY

It has been my experience that all broad base funds cross the 52 week moving average at about the same time. the only difference is velocity. The MSN 52 week moving average appears to be a simple average. The following ETF funds correspond to the folowing TSP averages:
c= SPY
I = EFA
S = vxf

If anyone wants additional info I am at facebook Bob meyers in Albuquerque. i will be glad to help anyone. I have researched hundreds of strategies over thousand of hours and have found some that work well and most don't.

My biggest consern is that we are expected to manage our pensions without any education. I have read hundreds of books in order to unserstand the markets. EVERYTHING IS FREE. This is only to help my fellow man.

Re: DAVE TREASURY

So where is there a forum for TSP discussions?

Re: DAVE TREASURY

RE: If anyone wants additional info I am at facebook Bob meyers in Albuquerque. i will be glad to help anyone. I have researched hundreds of strategies over thousand of hours and have found some that work well and most don't.
*****
Hello Bob - I found 317 people with "Bob Meyers" but when I refine the search to Albuquerque, NM - nothing. How else can I find you for additional info?