Logisitics Manager Defense Tue Jan 22, 2008 8:41 AM
Best advice is don't panic. The market goes up and down and buying and selling in a panic mode only contributes to the votility. Long term advances will overcome any short term ups and downs....during the last round of paninc selling I held my shares and more than made up for the short term loss by standing pat and holding my shares....investor confidence does more to stablize the market than buying and selling...be a smart investor.
Re: TSP Funds Dive
Managment Analyst Garrison Tue Jan 22, 2008 10:48 AM
I totally agree with you. I watch the TSP ups and downs. When stocks go down, I actually get excited because I'm thinking about how much more my money is buying. Then when stocks go back up, and they will, I think about how much money I've made. If your going to lose sleep over the stockmarket changes, you'd be best to invest in the G-Fund. If you can handle the stock market, enjoy the ride.
Re: TSP Funds Dive
Federal Employee Department of Justice Wed Jan 23, 2008 5:58 AM
After yesterday, all of my 2007 gains, over $36,000, have been wiped out. My TSP account is now just under what I had on January 1, 2007. Looks like retirement isn't as close as I thought.
Just Wait
Fire Protection Inspector DOD Tue Jan 22, 2008 9:50 AM
As I remember 1987, the Market was back in six months and only those that got out got hurt. And while we are waiting for the market to come back, we are buying stocks at lower price. :-)
TSP Funds Set to Dive After Panic in Overseas Mark
Civil Engineer DoD Tue Jan 22, 2008 10:17 AM
Of course the Government won't protect your retirement funds and the TSP Board is also trying to prevent you from protecting them by allowing only 2 moves per month. Ain't it grand that you got all these people looking out for your welfare? Oh yeah, don't forget about those cruise control Life cycle funds. I just hope your're not to near to retirement, so you have enough years to make up for all the loses. We're losing a heckuva of a lot more than the fantasy numbers that IFT's are supposedly costing us, since we've never seen the numbers, just the word of those protecting our retirement funds. Dang, that makes me feel warm and fuzzy all over.
Civil Engineer
Proposed rules would kill retirement accounts
Federal Employee DoT Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:07 AM
If the proposed TSP changes limiting interfund transfers is adopted, it will kill retirment accounts. Here's how:
Let's say today that Joe Snuffy hit the panic button, and moved everything off into the G fund. He made a small move once before this month, rebalancing when he saw the markets going down a couple weeks ago.
He's now used his two trades, and he's locked into G for the rest of the month.
Just take this moment, and see what happens next. Odds are that the funds will rebound, at least somewhat before the end of the month. But by being locked in to "two moves a month", he's locked OUT of any chance of a rebound.
Transfer limits are a bad idea. Let's watch what will happen to Joe Snuffy for the rest of the month, after he's just locked in a 11%+ decline for the month.
Panic is a human emotion, and not being able to change his mind will cost him dearly.
Re: Proposed rules would kill retirement accounts
*********** DA Tue Jan 22, 2008 3:51 PM
I guess the limit will make him think twice about moving his shares, since selling off his C & S funds when prices are low and then turning around trying to buy them back after the prices go back up will only maximize his losts. Maybe Mr. Snuffy should look into being a long term investor instead of trying to time the market. Panic is a human emotion, but we should not let our emotions dictate our actions. I am not a big fan of the imposed limits, but this is just a poor example.
Changing Your Views?
Project Analyst USDA Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:31 AM
Now let me get this correct...are you now advocating the transfer of funds because the market is dropping? And what about another transfer when the marked starts to climb? Oh my gosh! How much money will this cost me for everyone performing fund transfers???!!!
By the way, this is intended to be tongue-in-cheek for all of you folks who don't want to manage your own TSP funds on a daily/weekly/monthly basis, with regular fund transfers.
Dollar cost of reactionary moves
analyst dod Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:46 PM
I wonder how many market timers are selling after the prices went down... and won't buy back in until after the prices come up again....
In other words selling when the price is down and buying when the price is up. Doesn't sound very smart..
Re: Dollar cost of reactionary moves
Safety Inspector FAA Tue Jan 22, 2008 6:56 PM
Dod Analyst said:
"In other words selling when the price is down and buying when the price is up. Doesn't sound very smart.."
That is absolutely correct. It isn't smart. But when you ae dealing with human emotion, you run into this risk. People may panic and sell- as they did in 1987, in 2001, anytime there is huge shifts- and it looked like today.
But with a proposed 2-move limit per month, if the market settles down, and the person wants to move back, they are locked into the loss.
The biggest harm comes not from moving, but from being prevented from moving, after responding to a human emotion, and then deciding it's not so bad after all.
In the example given by the other person (Proposed rule will kill...) It looks like Mr. Snuffy would have sold his C shares today at 14.79. And won't be able to buy back in until February 1st.
I agree- limits are a BAD idea, and will cause people to lock themselves out more often that help them.
Re: Dollar cost of reactionary moves
Supervisor DHS Wed Jan 23, 2008 7:57 AM
It appears that the analyst's point is that market timing as practiced by most timers(buying high and selling low) will lead to increased losses, not a statement for or against trading limitations.
Re: Dollar cost of reactionary moves
Safety Inspector FAA Fri Feb 1, 2008 5:03 PM
As I said before- TSP lmiits are a BAD idea.
I gave the example of the person who panicked and sold on Janary 22nd- and would have then been locked out of any more movement until February 1st. He would have "locked in" his losses on January 22, a day when the C fund was at 14.79.
Now, today, February 1st, he would be able to buy back in under the Thrift Board's proposals. Except that he would have to pay a lot more for his shares- today they will be priced at $15.76 a share.
The person would have missed out on that difference.
I ask you- what benefit is served by locking this person out? Is it to "reduce costs"? Then why have the TSp funds constantly BEAT the indexes they follow since people began vigorous interfund transfers? Limiting people and locking them out will NOT reduce costs, or increase returns for the buy-and-holders.
So why is it then that the TSP Board wants to do this?
That is the question. I believe they don't know what they are doing.
Staying Put in TSP
Technical Expert Social Security Admin Tue Jan 22, 2008 5:20 PM
I am 3 months from my CSRS retirement. Although I am not matched by the Govt., I have significant funds in my TSP, due to transferring my traditional IRA's into the TSP and making the maximum contiribution to TSP for a number of years. I was very upset yesterday reading about the worldwide economic downturn and my balance was already down over $8000.00 from last month. However, I decided to let my TSP stay where it is - 45% L, 17% G, F-5%, C-13, S-13, I-7%. I am glad I did. Although I probably lost some more today, and may continue to lose, I will keep investing, buying more shares at lower prices and hope that by the time I want to tap the TSP I will have gained back ground. I urged my younger colleagues today to do the same- stay in your L funds and don't lock in your losses. If you don't touch it, it is only a paper loss. My gains over the past 4 years have been over $54,000 and in those 17 quarters, I only had losses in 4 quarters. Buy low, sell high and you will be fine.
Fuzzy Math Gains?
DoDDS Educator DoDEA Tue Jan 22, 2008 7:52 PM
I'm no great math wizard. But the sell low buy high blanket-"ain't we so smart about stocks" leaves me with a HUGE question mark? The last Bear Market lasted 2 years. Ouch! Even with a 6 month buy and hold down trend. Exactly at what point do you include just gaining back your losses/breaking even vs. "All the gains or all the money I made." Growth is just that GROWTH (G & F F). Correct me if I am wrong. An investor holding in the G or F is steadily gaining. If they buy when the market is up they are in at a higher price that should be offset by the gains from the G & F funds AND are not caught trying to make up & break even buy and hold losses during a market down turn. If you jumped back in stocks during a bull market you have no BIG buy & hold losses to offset your "gain". The down market holders have a whole lot more $$$ losses to make up BEFORE they see any gains. A basic plus & minus formula I never read about in all the "enjoy the ride" during the down trends.
Math Clueless
I Can't Predict The Future but...
Manager DOI Tue Jan 22, 2008 10:48 PM
Anyone who is "surprised" by this (long overdue) stock market correction must have not been paying attention at all! Housing/Mortgage mess etc!
Quoting from the TSP Talk Website for 1-18-2008: "We talked for months about the clues we were seeing with the soaring price of oil, gold, commodities in general, the sinking dollar, housing market and interest rates. The writing was on the wall but many of us were in disbelief given the 4.5 years of a bull market with not so much as a 10% correction."
The KEY words being "The writing was on the wall but many of us were in disbelief". I have missed some of the "big gains" (in my TSP) by being 100% in the G Fund the past few years but I'm glad I was, because if we are in for even an average Bear Market correction, there may not be enough time to gain it back before 2011 when I can retire! Since 2000 I've made 300% return on my non-TSP investments, which you guessed it were silver and gold! The TSP should add ETF's such as SLV and GLD!!
Sheep Shearing 101
Management Analyst VA Wed Jan 23, 2008 4:41 AM
Hi Out There, yes its the VA guy who has been giving classes to oher VA Feds RE TSP survival. Let's see, yesterday's $0.96 I Fund loss culminates what is now about a $3 loss per share so far in Jan 08, another great testimony to the value of 2 trades per month and the L Fund autopilot investment system.
Our TSP Club has been in G & GF splits now for several days... missed the huge CSI implosion completely, and we're awaiting the opportunity for a safe reentry into FI splits, still on line for a $40K year with an average $250K account.
The point is not to experience a sheep shearing as our somnolent Fed brothers & sisters have recently, but to Gain during the market upswings, then Wait while the market cycles back down. Even in the most devastating times there are opportunities --- notice that on this most recent Black Tuesday (1/22/08) we saw the G Fund pay its $0.01 weekly payoff and the F Fund $0.06!
Guess where our club was --- G & GF splits.
It works for us!! :)
Safety in the G-fund.
Engineer BOR Wed Jan 23, 2008 11:33 AM
Lets see, in January 2007 I decided to put 100% of my TSP funds in the L2010 fund. Then in February the stocks took a big dump and I quickly lost $2000.00 of my retirement money. Now to me $2000.00 is a lot of money. In February I transferred all of my TSP funds to the G where they are presently and will stay there. I checked today and since the time I put my funds into the G fund I have gained $3800.00 at just $0.01 at a time, but I haven't lost any of the money that I put in since then ($20500). A penny saved is a penny earned.
Two trades per month???
Physicist (retired) Air Force Research Laboratory Mon Jan 28, 2008 12:47 AM
What is this business about two trades per month? With all the stuff that's been going on lately (White House abandoning the dollar, subprime mess, bond insurance morass) it has been useful to try to stay ahead of the game and take a defensive postion. I try to stay at least half invested in C and I just to provide some growth and retain half or so in G for security. By taking prudent precautions, taking some of the equities off the table in October and November (when all the signals were flashing red) I've saved a fair fraction of the downturn. It took a few trades to get it right and then sit tight. This strategy makes absolutely no sense if we're going to be locked in.
Is there anything that we can do about the two trade limit? Call our Congressmen? TSP management? Anything???
Trade restrictions
Physicist (retired) Air Force Research Laboratory Mon Jan 28, 2008 7:41 AM
Can somebody please tell me what the real problem is with the excess trading activity? From my (basically buy and hold) perspective, the rapid trades and round trips don't seem to have any effect on fund performance. With 3.5M participants and assets of something like $200G, the $15M TSP trading costs look insignificant. It's about $4 per person in the plan or about 0.01 percent of capital. I agree that these are expenses on all investors caused by a few, but I'll be happy to chip in my $4.
The limitation of trades looks like a really bad idea, probably aimed at the I fund. At a time when the dollar is, what's the best way of putting it, under siege, the I fund looks like one possible hedge against devaluation. There are rapidly changing signals, having largely to do with EU and US interest rates, plus a host of euro and currency pressures, that suggest rapid changes in direction. In that environment, rapid flows between C and I funds seem to be entirely natural.
Posting date/Effective date of Interfund Transfers
Nurse Department of Veterans Affairs Fri Feb 1, 2008 1:08 PM
I made an Interfund transfer in the late afternoon of 1/30/08...The e-mail confirmation of it and the TSP site itself says the posting date for this Interfund transfer was 1/31/08.As is usual with my luck, 1/31/08 happened to be the day that the stock market went up over 200 points! My question is the effective date of this transfer the beginning of business for that day or the end of business? I would assume that a posting date/effective date of a transfer would mean the beginning of the day.So the transfer of all my money from the L2030 into the G Fund on the day of 1/31/08 means I lost out on that 200 point surge I assume unless the posting date for the Interfund transfer meant the end of business on the date of 1/31/08.This is the only Interfund transfer I have made in over a year in a half so I don't Day Trade as it were..And the exact same day I get out of the L Fund and put my money into the G Fund is the day the stock market goes up 200 points! Unbelievable!
TSP Funds Dive
Defense
Tue Jan 22, 2008 8:41 AM
Best advice is don't panic. The market goes up and down and buying and selling in a panic mode only contributes to the votility. Long term advances will overcome any short term ups and downs....during the last round of paninc selling I held my shares and more than made up for the short term loss by standing pat and holding my shares....investor confidence does more to stablize the market than buying and selling...be a smart investor.
Re: TSP Funds Dive
Garrison
Tue Jan 22, 2008 10:48 AM
Re: TSP Funds Dive
Department of Justice
Wed Jan 23, 2008 5:58 AM
Just Wait
DOD
Tue Jan 22, 2008 9:50 AM
As I remember 1987, the Market was back in six months and only those that got out got hurt. And while we are waiting for the market to come back, we are buying stocks at lower price. :-)
TSP Funds Set to Dive After Panic in Overseas Mark
DoD
Tue Jan 22, 2008 10:17 AM
Of course the Government won't protect your retirement funds and the TSP Board is also trying to prevent you from protecting them by allowing only 2 moves per month. Ain't it grand that you got all these people looking out for your welfare? Oh yeah, don't forget about those cruise control Life cycle funds. I just hope your're not to near to retirement, so you have enough years to make up for all the loses. We're losing a heckuva of a lot more than the fantasy numbers that IFT's are supposedly costing us, since we've never seen the numbers, just the word of those protecting our retirement funds. Dang, that makes me feel warm and fuzzy all over.
Civil Engineer
Proposed rules would kill retirement accounts
DoT
Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:07 AM
If the proposed TSP changes limiting interfund transfers is adopted, it will kill retirment accounts. Here's how:
Let's say today that Joe Snuffy hit the panic button, and moved everything off into the G fund. He made a small move once before this month, rebalancing when he saw the markets going down a couple weeks ago.
He's now used his two trades, and he's locked into G for the rest of the month.
Just take this moment, and see what happens next. Odds are that the funds will rebound, at least somewhat before the end of the month. But by being locked in to "two moves a month", he's locked OUT of any chance of a rebound.
Transfer limits are a bad idea. Let's watch what will happen to Joe Snuffy for the rest of the month, after he's just locked in a 11%+ decline for the month.
Panic is a human emotion, and not being able to change his mind will cost him dearly.
Re: Proposed rules would kill retirement accounts
DA
Tue Jan 22, 2008 3:51 PM
Changing Your Views?
USDA
Tue Jan 22, 2008 11:31 AM
Now let me get this correct...are you now advocating the transfer of funds because the market is dropping? And what about another transfer when the marked starts to climb? Oh my gosh! How much money will this cost me for everyone performing fund transfers???!!!
By the way, this is intended to be tongue-in-cheek for all of you folks who don't want to manage your own TSP funds on a daily/weekly/monthly basis, with regular fund transfers.
Dollar cost of reactionary moves
dod
Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:46 PM
I wonder how many market timers are selling after the prices went down... and won't buy back in until after the prices come up again....
In other words selling when the price is down and buying when the price is up. Doesn't sound very smart..
Re: Dollar cost of reactionary moves
FAA
Tue Jan 22, 2008 6:56 PM
"In other words selling when the price is down and buying when the price is up. Doesn't sound very smart.."
That is absolutely correct. It isn't smart. But when you ae dealing with human emotion, you run into this risk. People may panic and sell- as they did in 1987, in 2001, anytime there is huge shifts- and it looked like today.
But with a proposed 2-move limit per month, if the market settles down, and the person wants to move back, they are locked into the loss.
The biggest harm comes not from moving, but from being prevented from moving, after responding to a human emotion, and then deciding it's not so bad after all.
In the example given by the other person (Proposed rule will kill...) It looks like Mr. Snuffy would have sold his C shares today at 14.79. And won't be able to buy back in until February 1st.
I agree- limits are a BAD idea, and will cause people to lock themselves out more often that help them.
Re: Dollar cost of reactionary moves
DHS
Wed Jan 23, 2008 7:57 AM
Re: Dollar cost of reactionary moves
FAA
Fri Feb 1, 2008 5:03 PM
I gave the example of the person who panicked and sold on Janary 22nd- and would have then been locked out of any more movement until February 1st. He would have "locked in" his losses on January 22, a day when the C fund was at 14.79.
Now, today, February 1st, he would be able to buy back in under the Thrift Board's proposals. Except that he would have to pay a lot more for his shares- today they will be priced at $15.76 a share.
The person would have missed out on that difference.
I ask you- what benefit is served by locking this person out? Is it to "reduce costs"? Then why have the TSp funds constantly BEAT the indexes they follow since people began vigorous interfund transfers? Limiting people and locking them out will NOT reduce costs, or increase returns for the buy-and-holders.
So why is it then that the TSP Board wants to do this?
That is the question. I believe they don't know what they are doing.
Staying Put in TSP
Social Security Admin
Tue Jan 22, 2008 5:20 PM
I am 3 months from my CSRS retirement. Although I am not matched by the Govt., I have significant funds in my TSP, due to transferring my traditional IRA's into the TSP and making the maximum contiribution to TSP for a number of years. I was very upset yesterday reading about the worldwide economic downturn and my balance was already down over $8000.00 from last month. However, I decided to let my TSP stay where it is - 45% L, 17% G, F-5%, C-13, S-13, I-7%. I am glad I did. Although I probably lost some more today, and may continue to lose, I will keep investing, buying more shares at lower prices and hope that by the time I want to tap the TSP I will have gained back ground. I urged my younger colleagues today to do the same- stay in your L funds and don't lock in your losses. If you don't touch it, it is only a paper loss. My gains over the past 4 years have been over $54,000 and in those 17 quarters, I only had losses in 4 quarters. Buy low, sell high and you will be fine.
Fuzzy Math Gains?
DoDEA
Tue Jan 22, 2008 7:52 PM
I'm no great math wizard. But the sell low buy high blanket-"ain't we so smart about stocks" leaves me with a HUGE question mark? The last Bear Market lasted 2 years. Ouch! Even with a 6 month buy and hold down trend. Exactly at what point do you include just gaining back your losses/breaking even vs. "All the gains or all the money I made." Growth is just that GROWTH (G & F F). Correct me if I am wrong. An investor holding in the G or F is steadily gaining. If they buy when the market is up they are in at a higher price that should be offset by the gains from the G & F funds AND are not caught trying to make up & break even buy and hold losses during a market down turn. If you jumped back in stocks during a bull market you have no BIG buy & hold losses to offset your "gain". The down market holders have a whole lot more $$$ losses to make up BEFORE they see any gains. A basic plus & minus formula I never read about in all the "enjoy the ride" during the down trends.
Math Clueless
I Can't Predict The Future but...
DOI
Tue Jan 22, 2008 10:48 PM
Anyone who is "surprised" by this (long overdue) stock market correction must have not been paying attention at all! Housing/Mortgage mess etc!
Quoting from the TSP Talk Website for 1-18-2008: "We talked for months about the clues we were seeing with the soaring price of oil, gold, commodities in general, the sinking dollar, housing market and interest rates. The writing was on the wall but many of us were in disbelief given the 4.5 years of a bull market with not so much as a 10% correction."
The KEY words being "The writing was on the wall but many of us were in disbelief". I have missed some of the "big gains" (in my TSP) by being 100% in the G Fund the past few years but I'm glad I was, because if we are in for even an average Bear Market correction, there may not be enough time to gain it back before 2011 when I can retire! Since 2000 I've made 300% return on my non-TSP investments, which you guessed it were silver and gold! The TSP should add ETF's such as SLV and GLD!!
Sheep Shearing 101
VA
Wed Jan 23, 2008 4:41 AM
Hi Out There, yes its the VA guy who has been giving classes to oher VA Feds RE TSP survival. Let's see, yesterday's $0.96 I Fund loss culminates what is now about a $3 loss per share so far in Jan 08, another great testimony to the value of 2 trades per month and the L Fund autopilot investment system.
Our TSP Club has been in G & GF splits now for several days... missed the huge CSI implosion completely, and we're awaiting the opportunity for a safe reentry into FI splits, still on line for a $40K year with an average $250K account.
The point is not to experience a sheep shearing as our somnolent Fed brothers & sisters have recently, but to Gain during the market upswings, then Wait while the market cycles back down. Even in the most devastating times there are opportunities --- notice that on this most recent Black Tuesday (1/22/08) we saw the G Fund pay its $0.01 weekly payoff and the F Fund $0.06!
Guess where our club was --- G & GF splits.
It works for us!! :)
Safety in the G-fund.
BOR
Wed Jan 23, 2008 11:33 AM
Lets see, in January 2007 I decided to put 100% of my TSP funds in the L2010 fund. Then in February the stocks took a big dump and I quickly lost $2000.00 of my retirement money. Now to me $2000.00 is a lot of money. In February I transferred all of my TSP funds to the G where they are presently and will stay there. I checked today and since the time I put my funds into the G fund I have gained $3800.00 at just $0.01 at a time, but I haven't lost any of the money that I put in since then ($20500). A penny saved is a penny earned.
Two trades per month???
Air Force Research Laboratory
Mon Jan 28, 2008 12:47 AM
What is this business about two trades per month? With all the stuff that's been going on lately (White House abandoning the dollar, subprime mess, bond insurance morass) it has been useful to try to stay ahead of the game and take a defensive postion. I try to stay at least half invested in C and I just to provide some growth and retain half or so in G for security. By taking prudent precautions, taking some of the equities off the table in October and November (when all the signals were flashing red) I've saved a fair fraction of the downturn. It took a few trades to get it right and then sit tight. This strategy makes absolutely no sense if we're going to be locked in.
Is there anything that we can do about the two trade limit? Call our Congressmen? TSP management? Anything???
Trade restrictions
Air Force Research Laboratory
Mon Jan 28, 2008 7:41 AM
Can somebody please tell me what the real problem is with the excess trading activity? From my (basically buy and hold) perspective, the rapid trades and round trips don't seem to have any effect on fund performance. With 3.5M participants and assets of something like $200G, the $15M TSP trading costs look insignificant. It's about $4 per person in the plan or about 0.01 percent of capital. I agree that these are expenses on all investors caused by a few, but I'll be happy to chip in my $4.
The limitation of trades looks like a really bad idea, probably aimed at the I fund. At a time when the dollar is, what's the best way of putting it, under siege, the I fund looks like one possible hedge against devaluation. There are rapidly changing signals, having largely to do with EU and US interest rates, plus a host of euro and currency pressures, that suggest rapid changes in direction. In that environment, rapid flows between C and I funds seem to be entirely natural.
Posting date/Effective date of Interfund Transfers
Department of Veterans Affairs
Fri Feb 1, 2008 1:08 PM
I made an Interfund transfer in the late afternoon of 1/30/08...The e-mail confirmation of it and the TSP site itself says the posting date for this Interfund transfer was 1/31/08.As is usual with my luck, 1/31/08 happened to be the day that the stock market went up over 200 points! My question is the effective date of this transfer the beginning of business for that day or the end of business? I would assume that a posting date/effective date of a transfer would mean the beginning of the day.So the transfer of all my money from the L2030 into the G Fund on the day of 1/31/08 means I lost out on that 200 point surge I assume unless the posting date for the Interfund transfer meant the end of business on the date of 1/31/08.This is the only Interfund transfer I have made in over a year in a half so I don't Day Trade as it were..And the exact same day I get out of the L Fund and put my money into the G Fund is the day the stock market goes up 200 points! Unbelievable!