Managment Analyst Garrison Wed Apr 16, 2008 10:16 AM
People who are nervous and thinking about selling their TSP stock funds should take a closer look at the number of shares their money is now buying. It makes me feel a lot better. :)
Re: Number of Shares
meteorologist NOAA Thu Apr 17, 2008 12:49 AM
Excellent point. I moved a big chunk of my TSP into the G fund for awhile...to avoid losses. But...I continue to purchase the stock based funds each PP because they are such a good deal right now.
Buy low and sell high
Manager Labor Wed Apr 16, 2008 10:22 AM
Buy when the stock market dips and sell when it rises. That is the only way you can make any money right now. For example, if I buy and sell and 6 times a year on the dips and rises I will have made far more money than just holding...forever... You can do this despite the fact we are now limited to 2 trades per month.
Smith: Riding out a votaile stock market
Biological Technician USDA Forest Service Wed Apr 16, 2008 11:35 AM
While agreeing that since the great depression the stock market did usually follow the long term trend of advancing. I am very uneasy in the bubble aspect that the Wall Street speculators have caused and will into the future. With this housing scam that the paper pushers have created who really knows what will finally happen. I firmly believe that the government made a terrible choice in the Bear Stearns bail out. Public money is being used to reward criminals who should lose their shirts and those of their investors. Many people should be jailed for this pyramid scheme. If the government is going to bail out a private investment companies well then they better have some capital to use as collateral, and accept regulations as tight as or even tighter than the regular banks submit to. I would say that the stock market has never been in such a comprised position with our government as a major part of the problem with our federal deficit and the never ending bottomless pit called Iraq where all of our tax dollars are going to finance a megalomaniac's goal of being a war time president and sacking Saddam because of a perceived threat against his daddy, which may in fact have been a lie just to make the Kuwaitis look better since we bailed them out in 1991. On a final note one of the reasons that oil prices are so high is that curmudgeon speculators have created a bubble so to speak with their crazy actions which enable the middle east and the oil companies to stick it to the consumer each and every day since we must get to work and we must have heat for our homes.
Re: Smith: Riding out a votaile stock market
doj supervisor Thu Apr 17, 2008 11:43 AM
While your juvenile rant and name calling against the president is entertaining, it has no useful purpose in a discussion of stock market strategies.
Buy or Sell TSP
Contract Specialist HHS Wed Apr 16, 2008 12:25 PM
I'm very reluctant to "lock-in" losses, which as noted in the article is caused by a sell order. As a result, I see down markets as buying opportunities. Since my retirement time-horizon is out more than five years, there is plenty of time to recover any "paper" losses. Using dollar cost averaging principles, buying when the market is down means the average cost basis of portfolio shares decreases resulting in better total returns as the market rises. I say buy.
Re: Buy or Sell TSP
Salior DON Wed Apr 16, 2008 7:45 PM
Buy now. See big gains 12 months from now.
correct dates please?
retired usfs Wed Apr 16, 2008 6:28 PM
Ralph, Don't know how to trust the data with as many date clitches I see (i.e. "beginning with "June 83" but chart "begins" with "03" ???? Thanks for a revision to come.
Re: correct dates please?
editor FedSmith.com Wed Apr 16, 2008 9:16 PM
The chart reflects the biggest one-day drops of the stock market since June 1983. That date is correct. The chart is not arranged by date; the first date shows the largest one-day drop and each successive number reflects the next lower figure.
I could have added other dates into the chart but only included data for the biggest 15-day drops since June 1983.
TSP ADJUSTMENTS
career counselor US Navy Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:59 AM
I lopok at the drop in stock prices as an opportunity to buy. Remember dollar cost averaging? I am all in stock funds and will stay there and weather this storm.
Charts
DRA DHS Thu Apr 17, 2008 8:31 AM
Charts are invaluable for tracking price momentum, but I have yet to find any for the TSP funds. Ralph, is there any way someone can program and provide a 3-mth, 6-mth, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr chart for each fund? Let us know when and where to click. Thank you.
TSP ADJUSTMENTS
Engineer BOR Thu Apr 17, 2008 10:23 AM
I just thought that I would mention something that I have not seen before. First of all, a person in the TSP cannot buy low and sell high! They can only move their money around, when allowed. To get my point, we can only put money into the fund with the use of payroll. The funds are taken out of your paycheck every two weeks so you may be buying high, buying low, or anywhere inbetween. You do not have control over it.
When will it go back up?
Worker AF Thu Apr 17, 2008 10:36 AM
I moved the bulk of my TSP in January when indicators seemed to tell me that it was going down even more. I think that was a wise move for me. I continued to purchase in the other funds during that time frame. I have minimized my losses while hoping to prepare to get some good gains from my purchases.
I guess my real question is, when will it start going back up? The prices are extremely volital right now with huge jumps up, and huge drops following right behind them. It is hard to predict, especially for me being a total novice in the trade.
But one factor I think I can lean on which seems to coorelate with the rise or fall of the prices, is what is going on in the oil market. With oil prices going through the roof right now, I think that appears to make the rest of the markets more unstable with huge losses peaking its ugly head quite often. I figure that if it costs more to travel, then it will take its toll on the market by making trading and selling less desirable.
When will it go back
Engineer IMCOM-K Thu Apr 17, 2008 10:51 PM
If everyone new that, they would be billionaires. Well, take that back some are billionaires, especially several hedge fund managers who bet against the financial markets by shorting them. I believe some of those folks are now selectively picking companies that have been beaten (bottom fishing) and other companies like Google that presented excellent earnings yesterday. Here is the catch 22, we have a credit squeeze, soaring inflation, and a weak dollar. On the flip side, some of the larger international companies can profit on the weak dollar. In other words, our economy maybe in a recession right now but because of the global company, US companies that have overseas exposure continue to do well. Look at GM, in thier latest sell figures, the majority came from overseas markets. Anyway, to make a long story short, some american companies may continue to benefit in this envirionment and some may not. Thats another reason for lack of direction in the market right now.
The TSP Board is holding your hard earned monies hostage. When I retired, I remained invested with TSP and became a "day trader". Yes, I was one of those bad boys that caused you to lose your ability to adjust your position at will with the TSP system. When I received my warning letter from the TSP Board, I went shopping on the "outside". Whoa!!! Were my eyes opened. I rolled my account over into a retirement IRA and have never looked back. I selected a certain brokerage, simply, because the individual I spoke with showed me the "behind the scenes" overview of what the TSP Board does with your contributions. The Board is not looking out for your best interest and if you are in the L Funds, you are being screwed with a capital F. My portfolio, now, is diversified in 35 different funds. So far I have had 2 negative days out of 22, that is 20 positive days in a bear market I have access to my money 24/7 not 3 times a month. I do not beg for a loan, I write myself a check.
Re: TSP v/s Reputable Brokerages
Admin dod Tue Apr 29, 2008 6:23 PM
Retired Supervisor, you spoke to another brokerage and you're surprised that they had negative things to say about an entity with which they are competing for business? You got sold, welcome to the world..
BTW - any talented financial advisor can spin figures any way they want them to look so don't be so naive as to think you got an objective portrayal.
TSP v/s Reputable Brokerages
Retired Supervisor Federal Aviation Admin Thu May 1, 2008 3:23 AM
Dear Admin dod, thank you for welcoming me to the world. My "outside" portolio gained 2.435% for the month of April. Were your TSP L Funds in the gain or loss column? I guess you have to ask yourself, from whom to whom is shoveling what...er, excuse me, selling what.
BTW - there was no negativity about the financial advisor toward TSP, just an open, positive approach to making money, rather than losing money.
Re: TSP v/s Reputable Brokerages
Admin dod Thu May 1, 2008 7:23 PM
Your question of whether an L fund gained or lost is pointless unless you tell us which L fund you're talking about. They're all allocated differently and therefore all respond differently. And.. even if you did tell us which one you're talking about, a one month period is way too short to judge any long term investment vehicle like a retirement savings plan.
You may not have noticed any negativity, if the person was a talented salesperson they could easily mask it. Make no mistake, if they want you to take your money away from a competitor of theirs and give it to them they ARE trying to sell you... whether you recognize that fact or not it's still true.
Investing in a bear market
Adjudications Examiner INS (now part of DHS) Tue Aug 26, 2008 11:34 AM
Everything said here is well and good and based on the assumption that the market will behave as it always has. Odds are that it will, of course. But this bear market is troubling for factors that never had to be factored in before -- i.e. a national debt that now almost equals the GNP (and may well exceed it if we contintue doing what we're doing); a rises in energy costs that have never been seen before (and may well get much worse); a trade deficit that is only meagerly improved despite the huge decline in the value of the dollar (and portents of further declines caused by the outsourcing of so many jobs; in this we are our own worst enemy).
Into the mix we must consider the incredible amounts of money we spend on such things as subsidizing the oil industry, providing health care and education to the estimated 20 million illegal aliens in our midst (most of whom ALSO qualify for earned income tax rebates which exceed the taxes they've put in. We are no longer fiscally healthy.
Stock
Resource Advisor Dod Thu Oct 9, 2008 7:05 PM
I have watched a lot of folks jump ship into TSP funds G and F with 10 plus years till retirement. I have stayed fast to CSI funds and have not jumped ship. Hope it pays, I have anywhere from 10 to 13 years left.
Number of Shares
Garrison
Wed Apr 16, 2008 10:16 AM
People who are nervous and thinking about selling their TSP stock funds should take a closer look at the number of shares their money is now buying. It makes me feel a lot better. :)
Re: Number of Shares
NOAA
Thu Apr 17, 2008 12:49 AM
Buy low and sell high
Labor
Wed Apr 16, 2008 10:22 AM
Buy when the stock market dips and sell when it rises. That is the only way you can make any money right now. For example, if I buy and sell and 6 times a year on the dips and rises I will have made far more money than just holding...forever... You can do this despite the fact we are now limited to 2 trades per month.
Smith: Riding out a votaile stock market
USDA Forest Service
Wed Apr 16, 2008 11:35 AM
While agreeing that since the great depression the stock market did usually follow the long term trend of advancing. I am very uneasy in the bubble aspect that the Wall Street speculators have caused and will into the future. With this housing scam that the paper pushers have created who really knows what will finally happen. I firmly believe that the government made a terrible choice in the Bear Stearns bail out. Public money is being used to reward criminals who should lose their shirts and those of their investors. Many people should be jailed for this pyramid scheme. If the government is going to bail out a private investment companies well then they better have some capital to use as collateral, and accept regulations as tight as or even tighter than the regular banks submit to. I would say that the stock market has never been in such a comprised position with our government as a major part of the problem with our federal deficit and the never ending bottomless pit called Iraq where all of our tax dollars are going to finance a megalomaniac's goal of being a war time president and sacking Saddam because of a perceived threat against his daddy, which may in fact have been a lie just to make the Kuwaitis look better since we bailed them out in 1991. On a final note one of the reasons that oil prices are so high is that curmudgeon speculators have created a bubble so to speak with their crazy actions which enable the middle east and the oil companies to stick it to the consumer each and every day since we must get to work and we must have heat for our homes.
Re: Smith: Riding out a votaile stock market
supervisor
Thu Apr 17, 2008 11:43 AM
Buy or Sell TSP
HHS
Wed Apr 16, 2008 12:25 PM
I'm very reluctant to "lock-in" losses, which as noted in the article is caused by a sell order. As a result, I see down markets as buying opportunities. Since my retirement time-horizon is out more than five years, there is plenty of time to recover any "paper" losses. Using dollar cost averaging principles, buying when the market is down means the average cost basis of portfolio shares decreases resulting in better total returns as the market rises. I say buy.
Re: Buy or Sell TSP
DON
Wed Apr 16, 2008 7:45 PM
correct dates please?
usfs
Wed Apr 16, 2008 6:28 PM
Ralph, Don't know how to trust the data with as many date clitches I see (i.e. "beginning with "June 83" but chart "begins" with "03" ???? Thanks for a revision to come.
Re: correct dates please?
FedSmith.com
Wed Apr 16, 2008 9:16 PM
I could have added other dates into the chart but only included data for the biggest 15-day drops since June 1983.
TSP ADJUSTMENTS
US Navy
Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:59 AM
I lopok at the drop in stock prices as an opportunity to buy. Remember dollar cost averaging? I am all in stock funds and will stay there and weather this storm.
Charts
DHS
Thu Apr 17, 2008 8:31 AM
Charts are invaluable for tracking price momentum, but I have yet to find any for the TSP funds. Ralph, is there any way someone can program and provide a 3-mth, 6-mth, 1-yr, 2-yr, 3-yr and 5-yr chart for each fund? Let us know when and where to click. Thank you.
TSP ADJUSTMENTS
BOR
Thu Apr 17, 2008 10:23 AM
I just thought that I would mention something that I have not seen before. First of all, a person in the TSP cannot buy low and sell high! They can only move their money around, when allowed. To get my point, we can only put money into the fund with the use of payroll. The funds are taken out of your paycheck every two weeks so you may be buying high, buying low, or anywhere inbetween. You do not have control over it.
When will it go back up?
AF
Thu Apr 17, 2008 10:36 AM
I moved the bulk of my TSP in January when indicators seemed to tell me that it was going down even more. I think that was a wise move for me. I continued to purchase in the other funds during that time frame. I have minimized my losses while hoping to prepare to get some good gains from my purchases.
I guess my real question is, when will it start going back up? The prices are extremely volital right now with huge jumps up, and huge drops following right behind them. It is hard to predict, especially for me being a total novice in the trade.
But one factor I think I can lean on which seems to coorelate with the rise or fall of the prices, is what is going on in the oil market. With oil prices going through the roof right now, I think that appears to make the rest of the markets more unstable with huge losses peaking its ugly head quite often. I figure that if it costs more to travel, then it will take its toll on the market by making trading and selling less desirable.
When will it go back
IMCOM-K
Thu Apr 17, 2008 10:51 PM
If everyone new that, they would be billionaires. Well, take that back some are billionaires, especially several hedge fund managers who bet against the financial markets by shorting them. I believe some of those folks are now selectively picking companies that have been beaten (bottom fishing) and other companies like Google that presented excellent earnings yesterday. Here is the catch 22, we have a credit squeeze, soaring inflation, and a weak dollar. On the flip side, some of the larger international companies can profit on the weak dollar. In other words, our economy maybe in a recession right now but because of the global company, US companies that have overseas exposure continue to do well. Look at GM, in thier latest sell figures, the majority came from overseas markets. Anyway, to make a long story short, some american companies may continue to benefit in this envirionment and some may not. Thats another reason for lack of direction in the market right now.
TSP v/s Reputable Brokerages
Federal Aviation Admin
Tue Apr 29, 2008 12:33 PM
The TSP Board is holding your hard earned monies hostage. When I retired, I remained invested with TSP and became a "day trader". Yes, I was one of those bad boys that caused you to lose your ability to adjust your position at will with the TSP system. When I received my warning letter from the TSP Board, I went shopping on the "outside". Whoa!!! Were my eyes opened. I rolled my account over into a retirement IRA and have never looked back. I selected a certain brokerage, simply, because the individual I spoke with showed me the "behind the scenes" overview of what the TSP Board does with your contributions. The Board is not looking out for your best interest and if you are in the L Funds, you are being screwed with a capital F. My portfolio, now, is diversified in 35 different funds. So far I have had 2 negative days out of 22, that is 20 positive days in a bear market I have access to my money 24/7 not 3 times a month. I do not beg for a loan, I write myself a check.
Re: TSP v/s Reputable Brokerages
dod
Tue Apr 29, 2008 6:23 PM
BTW - any talented financial advisor can spin figures any way they want them to look so don't be so naive as to think you got an objective portrayal.
TSP v/s Reputable Brokerages
Federal Aviation Admin
Thu May 1, 2008 3:23 AM
Dear Admin dod, thank you for welcoming me to the world. My "outside" portolio gained 2.435% for the month of April. Were your TSP L Funds in the gain or loss column? I guess you have to ask yourself, from whom to whom is shoveling what...er, excuse me, selling what.
BTW - there was no negativity about the financial advisor toward TSP, just an open, positive approach to making money, rather than losing money.
Re: TSP v/s Reputable Brokerages
dod
Thu May 1, 2008 7:23 PM
You may not have noticed any negativity, if the person was a talented salesperson they could easily mask it. Make no mistake, if they want you to take your money away from a competitor of theirs and give it to them they ARE trying to sell you... whether you recognize that fact or not it's still true.
Investing in a bear market
INS (now part of DHS)
Tue Aug 26, 2008 11:34 AM
Everything said here is well and good and based on the assumption that the market will behave as it always has. Odds are that it will, of course. But this bear market is troubling for factors that never had to be factored in before -- i.e. a national debt that now almost equals the GNP (and may well exceed it if we contintue doing what we're doing); a rises in energy costs that have never been seen before (and may well get much worse); a trade deficit that is only meagerly improved despite the huge decline in the value of the dollar (and portents of further declines caused by the outsourcing of so many jobs; in this we are our own worst enemy).
Into the mix we must consider the incredible amounts of money we spend on such things as subsidizing the oil industry, providing health care and education to the estimated 20 million illegal aliens in our midst (most of whom ALSO qualify for earned income tax rebates which exceed the taxes they've put in. We are no longer fiscally healthy.
Stock
Dod
Thu Oct 9, 2008 7:05 PM
I have watched a lot of folks jump ship into TSP funds G and F with 10 plus years till retirement. I have stayed fast to CSI funds and have not jumped ship. Hope it pays, I have anywhere from 10 to 13 years left.