And how do you know the market has bottomed out and we have reached "The Point of Maximum Pessimism"?
Why buy now if the I, C, L funds are going to be cheaper a week, month or -most likely- a year from now? If you see the SP500 and DJIA trends, we still have way to go DOWN. Move into the G fund, watch the market and buy cheaper later.
Re: flawed theory
worker irs Fri Nov 21, 2008 9:55 AM
How do you know that the market will be cheaper later? This is a personal decision based on your financial situation and your knowledge of the market. I have no answers and will not give advice.
fingernails
HR Specialist CHRA for the Army Fri Sep 19, 2008 9:28 AM
I am gritting my teeth and hanging on by my fingernails but I am NOT shifting my money any - I have most in C fund. I'm 49 and have 21 years and hope to retire in less than 10 years. We'll see . . .
TSP Allocations
Test Control Officer Air Force Fri Sep 19, 2008 9:32 AM
A couple of weeks ago I spoke with a financial advisor on Sheppard AFB. He works at the Airmens' Readiness Center.
My allocations are 80% to G; 5% to C; 5% to F, 5% to I and 5% to S - 20% to the C,F,I & S.
However, when I looked at my quarterly statement it showed 92% to the G Fund with 2.0 % going to the C,F,I and S funds. And, get this...the L fund and the 2010L showed 74% for the G Fund and more to the 4 other funds.
I'm leaving my TSP alone. The way I figure it if they at TSP change my allocations to 92% G and 2% for C,F,I & S I think this is a good thing for me.
Revelations & Neo-Socialism
Fed Peasant DOD Fri Sep 19, 2008 9:42 AM
I have known for a long time that sometimes the markets are efficient & sometimes they are not. Sometimes the markets are rigged & sometimes they are not. Right now, they are both inefficient & rigged!!! What have CEOs & boards of directors been doing? Did the CPAs give us an accurate & honest report? Did the regulators do their jobs prudently? Did the congress pass laws, or abolish old laws, which were necessary. Did lobbiest for financial concerns have too much "sway"? (corruption) No more can we beat outselves on the chest & applaud our free market capitalism. We are having a socialist economy brought to us during a reign of "conservatives". As a small investor & tax payer, I did not approve the "investment" of my money in AIG. They must be out of their minds.... no joke!! Now more than ever, I am making selective investments overseas. The USA is not a prudent, worthwhile, & rationale choice.
Re: Revelations & Neo-Socialism
worker government Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:04 AM
CPA's do not prepare statements. They audit those statements and certify them based on tests via statistical sampling. (simplified explanation) The statements are still the responsibility of management.
The regulators cannot do their jobs properly for 2 reasons. Number one is that there are not enough of them. Number 2 is that we have an administration that does not want their friends regulated properly. The heads of these agencies are political cronies who make sure the rules and written reports do not damage their friends. Hopefully, this will change January 20, 2009.
I will not comment on the rest of your article as what you are saying makes no sense.
Yup...buy stocks now amd international fund
Supervisor DOL Fri Sep 19, 2008 9:50 AM
Yup, if you are in the G fund, get out...and buy S, C, and I funds ASAP.
On another note, I noticed as usual - when the international fund gets whacked in the market - the value per share really drops, too...however, the reverse is not true. Wednesday (9/17) it falls .56 and yesterday it goes up only .45. I am so sick of Barclays turning everything to their advantage.
Thansk, Paul
running out of money
contract administrator department of Ag Fri Sep 19, 2008 10:00 AM
I haven't quite figured this chart out. Let's say there was a big drop in S&P one day and it keeps dropping and dropping. Pretty soon a person could be out of money before it recovers enough to make your money back. So what good is a 27% increase a year latter if you are out of money?
Re: running out of money
CPA Treasury Fri Sep 19, 2008 1:04 PM
The only way you would "run out of money" is if the S&P went to zero. If that happened, then running out of money would be the least of your worries.
Buying Stocks at Point of Maximum Pessimism
Research Analyst Education Fri Sep 19, 2008 10:42 AM
The chart prepared by Dan Weiner is informative, but the analysis is somewhat misleading. When stocks fall
over 20% as they did on 10/19/87, they need to go up over 40% to get back to even. So, the 27% gain a year later still did not recoup the losses. I believe it about a year and half then, and it took about 5 years after the long 2000 to 2003 decline. Nevertheless, the conclusion that investors might be better off leaving the money in the market at this point might be correct. However, the notion that steep losses (that have actually been accumulating for about a year) might be regained a year from now is probably overly optimistic.
Re: Buying Stocks at Point of Maximum Pessimism
IT Specialist Private Sector Fri Sep 19, 2008 7:12 PM
That is true if you were already in the market and didn't buy on the drop. However, if you were not yet invested in the S&P, or even had some money in it already, if you dumped a bunch more in on 10/20/1987 after the major one day drop, you would be farther ahead one year later. In other words, if you didn't take advantage in any way of the buying opportunity and just held tight, your analysis is correct in that you wouldn't be ahead 1 year later.
Re: Buying Stocks at Point of Maximum Pessimism
Engineer DOD Mon Sep 22, 2008 10:33 AM
Those are some strange math skills you're displaying there, Research Analyst. When the index fell 20.5% in 1987, it was at 79.5% of its previous value. Thus, it would have to increase by 100 divided by 79.5, or about 25.8%, to get back to its previous value. Since it was actually up by 27% a year later, it had reached 1.27 times 79.5, or about 101%, of its pre-drop value. I sure hope your research analyses for Education don't involve any mathematical calculations.
Author is incorrect on several levels
ICE UL Manager Fri Sep 19, 2008 11:10 AM
Wow, where to begin? Not to stick it to the author, but if he would've made better career/investment choices, he'd be in sunny Florida instead of writing this column. Here's my issue with his comments:
"...some readers have been pulling their money out of stock funds and seeking the safety of the G fund and the F fund. That is a logical move. "
I don't agree Logical by whose standards?
"...those who moved money into the G fund a few months ago are undoubtedly richer than those that have left their money in the C, S and I funds..."
Want to bet? I began federal service in 87. Co-workers who have played it safe these past 20 years (G Fund) have about half of what I have today. While I have taken quite a hit in the past few years with the C,S and I Funds, I am nowhere near the 5.8 % return that the G Fund folks have realized.
Articles like this focus solely on the current bad news and dismiss the good times.
Compound interest is a wonderful thing. See me in 2 years...
Re: Author is incorrect on several levels
Engineer DOD Mon Sep 22, 2008 10:43 AM
Actually, I believe Ralph IS in sunny Florida enjoying his retirement while making a terrific second career out of providing those of us still on the federal employee treadmill with great information and the opportunity to marvel at vacuous comments like yours. You've totally missed the point of the article, which was to illustrate the resilience of the stock market, not to encourage the faint of heart to flee to the G and F funds.
Re: Author is incorrect on several levels
ICE UL Manager Mon Sep 22, 2008 1:39 PM
Well, I didn't mean to anger you, but there really is no need to defend the author...he's quite capable of that, I'm certain.
Far from being devoid of substance, as you suggested my comments were, they accurartely reflect the feelings of the other readers, if you take time to read vs. playing Defender of the Author.
We're all in the same leaky boat. While I value the articles and commentary from this site, we all choose whose advice to follow. In this instance, the author's comments were wrongheaded and I provided clear examples of that.
You really need to grow some (thicker skin) if you're going to play in this game. Put away the thesaurus and pick up Investing for Dummies.
And ease up there, skippy....
Let me shed some light on this
ICE UL Manager Fri Sep 19, 2008 11:34 AM
Like many TSP investors, you are looking solely at the $$ amount, not the share amount.
One never loses shares one purchases, those shares just fluctuate in price.
In May 2008, I owned 18,337 shares of C Fund stock; today I own 19, 021. In May, those shares were worth $15.70; today they are worth $13.80. In between, the price has reached $17. I am confident that they stock will go past $20.
Do the math.
I hope this helps disspell the fallacy of forever losing money when shares drop dramatically. If one continues to buy those shares, and those shares increase, wa-la...you're in the black.
Re: Let me shed some light on this
Fed Peasant DOD Mon Sep 22, 2008 3:14 PM
While you & your cohorts debate how many angels can dance on the head of a needle, the market tidal wave is drowning you. You guys should have a drink & loosen up!! Focus your energy, & intellect, on sound strategy in this danger zone!!
Re: Let me shed some light on this
UL Manager ICE Tue Sep 23, 2008 7:50 PM
I don't think the market tidal wave is drowning me. I really do have a deep faith in the USA. If the market collapses, how many shares I have in the S&P will be the VERY least of my worries. I will still *own* those shares. When the market rebounds, those shares will be worth quite a bit.
Having 5-12 years to think about retirement, I'm not worried at all. Now, I completely understand the retired folks--or those contemplating retirement--are concerned about their investments.
However, I'm not kidding when I say that you should buy Investing for Dummies and wait for the returns...
No one *loses* any money, unless one buys high and sells low. We still own shares, folks. I think that a sound money manager will instruct you to stop looking at the dollar amount and instead focus on the number of shares you own.
In the end, it's we who are responsible for the choices we make. Make informed choices.
Re: Let me shed some light on this
Civil Engineer VHA Wed Oct 1, 2008 12:28 PM
Your shares and share price analyis isn't bad - it's called dollar cost averaging. However if you can reasonably foresee that the market is in sad shape and will continue to be so for the next several months then you're ahead selling high and buying low later. I left the C, S, and I funds (ah the I fund gains last year!) in December 2007 for the G - my total $$ amount has gone up by $14K so far this year - not down. This gives me more $$ to buy cheap shares when I expect the market to recover. Not having to pick the bottom - just buy lower than I sold (which isn't hard when the C fund share price is in the $12 range!)
The Sky Is Falling!
Chicken Little Dept of Falling Sky Fri Sep 19, 2008 8:21 PM
The sky is falling!
Scratching your watch!
Retired Air Force U.S. Navy Sat Sep 20, 2008 3:04 AM
Well, what happened to the I fund yesterday? Glad I left my shares in the I fund and continued my contributions to the I fund. Cost averaging is painfull; but no matter what fund you invest in you can find some relief if you apply the practice of cost averaging. October 31 2007 I fund shares were at $26.31 now you and I can buy the same shares for $19.51. Something to think about.
Trends
Gov Worker DoD Sat Sep 20, 2008 8:59 AM
Trends do not agree with the article currently and the economy has yet to see the worst. Unemployment is getting pretty high, and the houses are still being foreclosed. The bailouts may be good for some and just a bump in the road for others. Even if I wanted to buy back in I can't because I already made 2 trades this month, how stupid!. That is ok, because my plan is to keep my money safe and play with new contributions. This has always worked for me. Markets are emotional, not rational, so I see more downside to come. I will chime in when I think it's time to risk my future bread and butter.
TSP
Diversity Manager DOL Mon Sep 22, 2008 4:07 PM
The Fed Gov needs to be able to take all the TSP funds it needs to bail out the private sector. Only Feds have a defined pension SS and TSP. It makes sense that we fund the shortfall. The private sector has been funding the gov't thru their SS assets since 1967 so its time ours are put at risk
Re: TSP
Health Physicist DON Mon Sep 22, 2008 5:37 PM
Have you lost your mind!
That's our money, not the governments. They have no right to it anymore than anyone else.
Re: TSP
Diversity Manager DOL Mon Sep 22, 2008 9:10 PM
Well they have taken my SS $$ so it only seems right that they tap TSP and CRS pension funds for ready cash
Re: TSP
Analyst DOD Tue Sep 23, 2008 9:56 AM
Diversity Manager DOL I hope you don't vote.
Re: TSP
worker government Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:17 AM
Perhaps diversity manager is nuts. The others have not funded us. We get paid a salary plus benefits. One benefit is the TSP. If you are FERS you get a match plus interest. If CERS you just get interest almost like a bank. My TSP is my money, not government money to spend as they see fit.
The government can spend my tax money.
As far as social security is concerned, its receipts will not meet its expenses by some year. This has nothing to do with them taking the money from you.
RE:TSP
Fed Worker DOD Tue Sep 23, 2008 5:58 AM
Diversity Manager wow! You sound like someone else I know at another site. I bet your title is made up. SS and TSP is no different from SS and 401K in most companies, and since we are with Barclay's we are at risk. You know that already, you just want to get these folks excited. Nice to see you DK.
Re: RE:TSP
Peon VA Tue Sep 23, 2008 12:52 PM
What's Barclay's??
RE:TSP
Fed Worker DOD Wed Sep 24, 2008 5:59 AM
Barclays is a Bank that has been around since the 1690's in London and it's an international bank. It manages our TSP. It's basically a contractor for us that happens to be a bank. The TSP is a 401k, just be glad it's not managed by Lehman, IndyMac,etc......
Re: RE:TSP
EEO Diversity Manager Fri Sep 26, 2008 12:04 PM
I don't think Barclays should control our TSP money. We really should allow more minority companies a chance to manage these investments.
Yes, there was a small problem with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae recently, but that's been fixed. I think FM and FM would do a good job of managing the TSP.
It's time we spread the wealth around!
TSP Investing in Troubled Times
Executive Judiciary Tue Sep 30, 2008 12:26 PM
It's easier to see the bottoms of a market then guess at the peaks. It may not be for everyone, but I have always made more money buying the market bottoms and then selling after a decent recovery.
At the start of this year I had quit a bit of money in the G & F funds (40%). During the past few weeks I have been slowly transferring funds out of the bond funds back into the stock markets (C,S, & I Funds), trying to find the bottom of this market.
I believe we are near the bottom and I see this as a great buying opportunity. As of this morning, I'm now 90% equities and 10% bonds. One more good emotional (see: not rational) panic and I'll be 100% equities.
Fundamentals
Fed Worker DOD Wed Oct 1, 2008 7:23 AM
According to some very smart people we are still 40% over fair market value in the DOW. Now they could be wrong about this, but no one really knows. Freddie, and Fannie back about 6 trillion in loans, and they had to be taken under Gov't control. It may be that the $700 Billion is a drop in the bucket. Banks are not loaning money because they are waiting on the Govt to bail them out. Some of them may have done some seriously bad loans that have yet to go bad. Also, in my area where I live during the "Great Depression" 300 families lost there homes. We are seeing 25 to 35 forclosures a month right now since 2006. So we have passed those numbers, but were not at par yet for population growth. The other problem has to do with the world economy which is going into recession, so when I see the market make 3 good data points upward I will take a larger equity position. I think the bottom will look closer like 6600. Good Luck.
HAVE BEEN at the point of max pain
Federal Employee DoD Fri Oct 10, 2008 5:50 AM
REALLY? VIX was barely over 30 when this article was written. Now it's in the mid-60s. Several months ago many intelligent, motivated people were posting over here warning about the risks of the B&H philosophy. The underlying assumption that was behind the successful B&H mentality of the past NO LONGER IS TRUE. I hope those who wouldn't listen several months ago & who scorned those of us who tried to warn you will now listen. THE BASIC ASSUMPTION IS NO LONGER TRUE.
TSP Funds are down 38% thus far this year. How much lower does it have to go before reality sinks in? If you believe in B&H then why not go out and buy yourself a horse & buggy? When something dies, wise people move on.
[Because, while we don't know if the market has reached a bottom or will continue to drop, there is little doubt that there is panic in the streets and, if we are not there, have been "at the point of maximum pessimism."]
Did I guess wrong?
Chief Security DOD Fri Nov 21, 2008 8:53 AM
So many articles tell you to stay the course, or at least adjust moderately to the bear market. No matter what the figures say, I am proud to have gotten out of the market 9 months ago and put my money in the G Fund. I sold at 22-25 in some of the Funds and now, as of today are down CSI, 8, 9 and 11. So am I dumb, or was I just not greedy like so many investors, i.e. in and out of a fund every other day. My 100K is still good and actually growing, though maybe not enough to keep up with inflation, I sure have not lost my shirt. How could people not see it coming or maybe living in California and very close to the real estate business gave me a better perspective on the stupidity of the banks and humans, one for funding subprimes and the other for buying to much house. No, if I wait until after the 2nd quarter of 2009, the Money soothsayers would say I should have stayed the course. I don't think so.
Everyone have a great holiday season.
Buying Stocks at Point of Maximum Pessimism
Engineer Bureau of Reclamation Fri Nov 21, 2008 9:23 AM
Buy Buy Buy
The price is low and going lower. Remember if the shares are selling for less it means someone is buying them cheaper!
Don't loose sleep over it. Invest in your health and your education and then in the market.
flawed theory
AAA
Fri Sep 19, 2008 8:43 AM
And how do you know the market has bottomed out and we have reached "The Point of Maximum Pessimism"?
Why buy now if the I, C, L funds are going to be cheaper a week, month or -most likely- a year from now? If you see the SP500 and DJIA trends, we still have way to go DOWN. Move into the G fund, watch the market and buy cheaper later.
Re: flawed theory
irs
Fri Nov 21, 2008 9:55 AM
fingernails
CHRA for the Army
Fri Sep 19, 2008 9:28 AM
I am gritting my teeth and hanging on by my fingernails but I am NOT shifting my money any - I have most in C fund. I'm 49 and have 21 years and hope to retire in less than 10 years. We'll see . . .
TSP Allocations
Air Force
Fri Sep 19, 2008 9:32 AM
A couple of weeks ago I spoke with a financial advisor on Sheppard AFB. He works at the Airmens' Readiness Center.
My allocations are 80% to G; 5% to C; 5% to F, 5% to I and 5% to S - 20% to the C,F,I & S.
However, when I looked at my quarterly statement it showed 92% to the G Fund with 2.0 % going to the C,F,I and S funds. And, get this...the L fund and the 2010L showed 74% for the G Fund and more to the 4 other funds.
I'm leaving my TSP alone. The way I figure it if they at TSP change my allocations to 92% G and 2% for C,F,I & S I think this is a good thing for me.
Revelations & Neo-Socialism
DOD
Fri Sep 19, 2008 9:42 AM
I have known for a long time that sometimes the markets are efficient & sometimes they are not. Sometimes the markets are rigged & sometimes they are not. Right now, they are both inefficient & rigged!!! What have CEOs & boards of directors been doing? Did the CPAs give us an accurate & honest report? Did the regulators do their jobs prudently? Did the congress pass laws, or abolish old laws, which were necessary. Did lobbiest for financial concerns have too much "sway"? (corruption) No more can we beat outselves on the chest & applaud our free market capitalism. We are having a socialist economy brought to us during a reign of "conservatives". As a small investor & tax payer, I did not approve the "investment" of my money in AIG. They must be out of their minds.... no joke!! Now more than ever, I am making selective investments overseas. The USA is not a prudent, worthwhile, & rationale choice.
Re: Revelations & Neo-Socialism
government
Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:04 AM
The regulators cannot do their jobs properly for 2 reasons. Number one is that there are not enough of them. Number 2 is that we have an administration that does not want their friends regulated properly. The heads of these agencies are political cronies who make sure the rules and written reports do not damage their friends. Hopefully, this will change January 20, 2009.
I will not comment on the rest of your article as what you are saying makes no sense.
Yup...buy stocks now amd international fund
DOL
Fri Sep 19, 2008 9:50 AM
Yup, if you are in the G fund, get out...and buy S, C, and I funds ASAP.
On another note, I noticed as usual - when the international fund gets whacked in the market - the value per share really drops, too...however, the reverse is not true. Wednesday (9/17) it falls .56 and yesterday it goes up only .45. I am so sick of Barclays turning everything to their advantage.
Thansk, Paul
running out of money
department of Ag
Fri Sep 19, 2008 10:00 AM
I haven't quite figured this chart out. Let's say there was a big drop in S&P one day and it keeps dropping and dropping. Pretty soon a person could be out of money before it recovers enough to make your money back. So what good is a 27% increase a year latter if you are out of money?
Re: running out of money
Treasury
Fri Sep 19, 2008 1:04 PM
Buying Stocks at Point of Maximum Pessimism
Education
Fri Sep 19, 2008 10:42 AM
The chart prepared by Dan Weiner is informative, but the analysis is somewhat misleading. When stocks fall
over 20% as they did on 10/19/87, they need to go up over 40% to get back to even. So, the 27% gain a year later still did not recoup the losses. I believe it about a year and half then, and it took about 5 years after the long 2000 to 2003 decline. Nevertheless, the conclusion that investors might be better off leaving the money in the market at this point might be correct. However, the notion that steep losses (that have actually been accumulating for about a year) might be regained a year from now is probably overly optimistic.
Re: Buying Stocks at Point of Maximum Pessimism
Private Sector
Fri Sep 19, 2008 7:12 PM
Re: Buying Stocks at Point of Maximum Pessimism
DOD
Mon Sep 22, 2008 10:33 AM
Author is incorrect on several levels
UL Manager
Fri Sep 19, 2008 11:10 AM
Wow, where to begin? Not to stick it to the author, but if he would've made better career/investment choices, he'd be in sunny Florida instead of writing this column. Here's my issue with his comments:
"...some readers have been pulling their money out of stock funds and seeking the safety of the G fund and the F fund. That is a logical move. "
I don't agree Logical by whose standards?
"...those who moved money into the G fund a few months ago are undoubtedly richer than those that have left their money in the C, S and I funds..."
Want to bet? I began federal service in 87. Co-workers who have played it safe these past 20 years (G Fund) have about half of what I have today. While I have taken quite a hit in the past few years with the C,S and I Funds, I am nowhere near the 5.8 % return that the G Fund folks have realized.
Articles like this focus solely on the current bad news and dismiss the good times.
Compound interest is a wonderful thing. See me in 2 years...
Re: Author is incorrect on several levels
DOD
Mon Sep 22, 2008 10:43 AM
Re: Author is incorrect on several levels
UL Manager
Mon Sep 22, 2008 1:39 PM
Far from being devoid of substance, as you suggested my comments were, they accurartely reflect the feelings of the other readers, if you take time to read vs. playing Defender of the Author.
We're all in the same leaky boat. While I value the articles and commentary from this site, we all choose whose advice to follow. In this instance, the author's comments were wrongheaded and I provided clear examples of that.
You really need to grow some (thicker skin) if you're going to play in this game. Put away the thesaurus and pick up Investing for Dummies.
And ease up there, skippy....
Let me shed some light on this
UL Manager
Fri Sep 19, 2008 11:34 AM
Like many TSP investors, you are looking solely at the $$ amount, not the share amount.
One never loses shares one purchases, those shares just fluctuate in price.
In May 2008, I owned 18,337 shares of C Fund stock; today I own 19, 021. In May, those shares were worth $15.70; today they are worth $13.80. In between, the price has reached $17. I am confident that they stock will go past $20.
Do the math.
I hope this helps disspell the fallacy of forever losing money when shares drop dramatically. If one continues to buy those shares, and those shares increase, wa-la...you're in the black.
Re: Let me shed some light on this
DOD
Mon Sep 22, 2008 3:14 PM
Re: Let me shed some light on this
ICE
Tue Sep 23, 2008 7:50 PM
Having 5-12 years to think about retirement, I'm not worried at all. Now, I completely understand the retired folks--or those contemplating retirement--are concerned about their investments.
However, I'm not kidding when I say that you should buy Investing for Dummies and wait for the returns...
No one *loses* any money, unless one buys high and sells low. We still own shares, folks. I think that a sound money manager will instruct you to stop looking at the dollar amount and instead focus on the number of shares you own.
In the end, it's we who are responsible for the choices we make. Make informed choices.
Re: Let me shed some light on this
VHA
Wed Oct 1, 2008 12:28 PM
The Sky Is Falling!
Dept of Falling Sky
Fri Sep 19, 2008 8:21 PM
The sky is falling!
Scratching your watch!
U.S. Navy
Sat Sep 20, 2008 3:04 AM
Well, what happened to the I fund yesterday? Glad I left my shares in the I fund and continued my contributions to the I fund. Cost averaging is painfull; but no matter what fund you invest in you can find some relief if you apply the practice of cost averaging. October 31 2007 I fund shares were at $26.31 now you and I can buy the same shares for $19.51. Something to think about.
Trends
DoD
Sat Sep 20, 2008 8:59 AM
Trends do not agree with the article currently and the economy has yet to see the worst. Unemployment is getting pretty high, and the houses are still being foreclosed. The bailouts may be good for some and just a bump in the road for others. Even if I wanted to buy back in I can't because I already made 2 trades this month, how stupid!. That is ok, because my plan is to keep my money safe and play with new contributions. This has always worked for me. Markets are emotional, not rational, so I see more downside to come. I will chime in when I think it's time to risk my future bread and butter.
TSP
DOL
Mon Sep 22, 2008 4:07 PM
The Fed Gov needs to be able to take all the TSP funds it needs to bail out the private sector. Only Feds have a defined pension SS and TSP. It makes sense that we fund the shortfall. The private sector has been funding the gov't thru their SS assets since 1967 so its time ours are put at risk
Re: TSP
DON
Mon Sep 22, 2008 5:37 PM
That's our money, not the governments. They have no right to it anymore than anyone else.
Re: TSP
DOL
Mon Sep 22, 2008 9:10 PM
Re: TSP
DOD
Tue Sep 23, 2008 9:56 AM
Re: TSP
government
Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:17 AM
The government can spend my tax money.
As far as social security is concerned, its receipts will not meet its expenses by some year. This has nothing to do with them taking the money from you.
RE:TSP
DOD
Tue Sep 23, 2008 5:58 AM
Diversity Manager wow! You sound like someone else I know at another site. I bet your title is made up. SS and TSP is no different from SS and 401K in most companies, and since we are with Barclay's we are at risk. You know that already, you just want to get these folks excited. Nice to see you DK.
Re: RE:TSP
VA
Tue Sep 23, 2008 12:52 PM
RE:TSP
DOD
Wed Sep 24, 2008 5:59 AM
Barclays is a Bank that has been around since the 1690's in London and it's an international bank. It manages our TSP. It's basically a contractor for us that happens to be a bank. The TSP is a 401k, just be glad it's not managed by Lehman, IndyMac,etc......
Re: RE:TSP
Diversity Manager
Fri Sep 26, 2008 12:04 PM
Yes, there was a small problem with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae recently, but that's been fixed. I think FM and FM would do a good job of managing the TSP.
It's time we spread the wealth around!
TSP Investing in Troubled Times
Judiciary
Tue Sep 30, 2008 12:26 PM
It's easier to see the bottoms of a market then guess at the peaks. It may not be for everyone, but I have always made more money buying the market bottoms and then selling after a decent recovery.
At the start of this year I had quit a bit of money in the G & F funds (40%). During the past few weeks I have been slowly transferring funds out of the bond funds back into the stock markets (C,S, & I Funds), trying to find the bottom of this market.
I believe we are near the bottom and I see this as a great buying opportunity. As of this morning, I'm now 90% equities and 10% bonds. One more good emotional (see: not rational) panic and I'll be 100% equities.
Fundamentals
DOD
Wed Oct 1, 2008 7:23 AM
According to some very smart people we are still 40% over fair market value in the DOW. Now they could be wrong about this, but no one really knows. Freddie, and Fannie back about 6 trillion in loans, and they had to be taken under Gov't control. It may be that the $700 Billion is a drop in the bucket. Banks are not loaning money because they are waiting on the Govt to bail them out. Some of them may have done some seriously bad loans that have yet to go bad. Also, in my area where I live during the "Great Depression" 300 families lost there homes. We are seeing 25 to 35 forclosures a month right now since 2006. So we have passed those numbers, but were not at par yet for population growth. The other problem has to do with the world economy which is going into recession, so when I see the market make 3 good data points upward I will take a larger equity position. I think the bottom will look closer like 6600. Good Luck.
HAVE BEEN at the point of max pain
DoD
Fri Oct 10, 2008 5:50 AM
REALLY? VIX was barely over 30 when this article was written. Now it's in the mid-60s. Several months ago many intelligent, motivated people were posting over here warning about the risks of the B&H philosophy. The underlying assumption that was behind the successful B&H mentality of the past NO LONGER IS TRUE. I hope those who wouldn't listen several months ago & who scorned those of us who tried to warn you will now listen. THE BASIC ASSUMPTION IS NO LONGER TRUE.
TSP Funds are down 38% thus far this year. How much lower does it have to go before reality sinks in? If you believe in B&H then why not go out and buy yourself a horse & buggy? When something dies, wise people move on.
[Because, while we don't know if the market has reached a bottom or will continue to drop, there is little doubt that there is panic in the streets and, if we are not there, have been "at the point of maximum pessimism."]
Did I guess wrong?
DOD
Fri Nov 21, 2008 8:53 AM
So many articles tell you to stay the course, or at least adjust moderately to the bear market. No matter what the figures say, I am proud to have gotten out of the market 9 months ago and put my money in the G Fund. I sold at 22-25 in some of the Funds and now, as of today are down CSI, 8, 9 and 11. So am I dumb, or was I just not greedy like so many investors, i.e. in and out of a fund every other day. My 100K is still good and actually growing, though maybe not enough to keep up with inflation, I sure have not lost my shirt. How could people not see it coming or maybe living in California and very close to the real estate business gave me a better perspective on the stupidity of the banks and humans, one for funding subprimes and the other for buying to much house. No, if I wait until after the 2nd quarter of 2009, the Money soothsayers would say I should have stayed the course. I don't think so.
Everyone have a great holiday season.
Buying Stocks at Point of Maximum Pessimism
Bureau of Reclamation
Fri Nov 21, 2008 9:23 AM
Buy Buy Buy
The price is low and going lower. Remember if the shares are selling for less it means someone is buying them cheaper!
Don't loose sleep over it. Invest in your health and your education and then in the market.