Application/Db Programmer USMC Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:43 AM
Mr. Smith,
I just found this site via the largest of the 'day trade' communities out there (TSPTalk). Many on that site bemoan the trading limit, many don't care.
I also just started participating at this site. It is amazing how emotional and new some of these folks are. Many want some form of government insurance on their TSP retirement benefits - that will only eat into their returns, at best. Some felt that the market was frothing and moved assets into the G Fund. I did so, but not the 100% move these folks are claiming. And many, after reading about the timely transfers, bailed out last week. Now they are probably jumping in.
Uuuuugggghhhhh.
On the other hand, I do think a two trade limit is too little. I should be able to reallocate as to hold my allocation as the market fluctuates. My holdings are no longer allocated as I wish – they are too conservative because of the losses. Not by much, but who is to say.
Why keep pushing employees to lose money?
Another Government Employee Does it matter? Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:46 AM
I cannot understand why FEDSMITH continues to push employees to keep investing in other than G funds at this moment.
I switched all my money to G funds in or around April after losing about 3k before finally wising up. I would have been sleepless during the past 6 months if I had not move my own funds. (I receive no government contribution, so it is truly MY money).
All funds this year have lost or are losing money and it seems the market will not rebound this year.
Re: Why keep pushing employees to lose money?
Program Specialist ACF Tue Oct 14, 2008 12:43 PM
Be smart, begin buying into the C,S,&I with the money that is currently being taken out of your check. You will purchase more shares and ride it upwards. It's called dollar cost averaging. You already have your other money protected in the G.
Re: Why keep pushing employees to lose money?
programmer tso Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:23 PM
Another Government Employee - if you'll read the article it stresses LONG TERM, not "at this moment". You're completely missing the point.
Re: Why keep pushing employees to lose money?
Tom HF Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:20 PM
Be smart DON"T buy now, wait until it bottoms out. I moved to the G fund last november and will jump back in later on.
Just keep an eye on the market trend. Stagflation is coming to stay for a while (1-3 years) and it wont be pretty.
Re: Why keep pushing employees to lose money?
Supervisory IT Specialist DON Wed Oct 15, 2008 8:23 AM
Tom, let me know when the market bottoms out. My crystal ball is broken and I'm having trouble predicting the future.
Re: Why keep pushing employees to lose money?
Product Specialist DSCP Thu Oct 16, 2008 10:10 AM
The Golden Rule of Investing is: Buy low; Sell High. If the Market is taking a nose dive, it makes sense to sell what's diving (Sell High) and buy the cheap and secured G Funds (Buy Low) which go up modestly but guarantee not to go down.
When you feel the Market has straightened out and is on the upswing again, the stocks are still cheap, as they are now, some even lower in price than G Funds.
But, of course, for those who don't have time to follow the market, sticking with stocks makes sense over the long haul. Either way, we're gambling with our future.
Social Security was the greatest program ever. My brother retired recently. He was a businessman and had prepared well for retirement, never counting on Social Security, which had been so badly badmouthed for so many years. To his surprise, he's getting $2,000/mo. Social Security payments. He can thank FDR!
Re: Why keep pushing employees to lose money?
Electronics Engineer FCC Thu Oct 23, 2008 12:42 PM
Tom HF is exactly correct. Supervisory IT Specialist DON, you will not need your crystal ball. Tom says wait until AFTER the market bottoms out. You do not need to look into the future, only the recent past. Wait until the current price is leading the recent trend upwards. That is not happening yet as of today. For a short term perspective, compare the current price to the 10, 20 and 30 exponential moving averages over the previous 2 months and don't buy until the current price is higher than these averages and the three averages are rightside up. Go to www.bigcharts.com and use SP500 (for the C Fund), and DWCPF (for the S Fund). For a long term perspective, use the 60 and 120 day EMAs over a 3 year period.
Re: Why keep pushing employees to lose money?
Manager DOI Fri Oct 24, 2008 9:16 AM
I agree, we have NOT seen the bottom in this market yet, we may be close, and we may not!!! I have one question- SO HOW'S THAT BUY AND HOLD THING WORKING FOR YOU????!!!!! (those who bought into that myth)
I get sick and tired of the "stay in it for the long haul crowd"! Anytime someone is within 10 years (maybe more this time) of retirement, they should be extremely cautious about investing in stocks, because a major bear market may take up to 10 years (maybe more this time- depends on how much long-term damage is done to the world economy) to recover from.
My market timing is often not the best, but I could see this bear market coming at me like a freight train! I expected a calmer version of what is happening now, to happen in 2001-2002, but the Fed prevented a REAL recession (which we needed to have) from occurring. I've been 100% in the G Fund since before we went to daily valuation, but now my share price is higher than all but two TSP funds! I'm sleeping well at night!
Thrift Savings Plan
Retired USPS Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:06 AM
Sit tight and watch your money disappear in these funds. Sad but true. As we all look back, we can say, I wish I had moved the money....
I have lost more money in this plan than my other investments. But then, it's government.
Educate Yourself
Program Specialist ACF Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:28 AM
Those of you that get scared about the stock market fluctuations, ask yourself a few questions:
1. How much time do you spend a week reading about investments, not just stock?
2. Do you follow the market as close when things are going good?
When you spend a little time daily or weekly trying to learn you will do so much better. You will start seeing the glass half full, not half empty. Even if you are close to retiring you still have opportunities in this market. If you say your about to retire and all your money is in stocks, then you were not diligent taking care of your financial health. I am steadily gathering up shares in the C,S, & I. I am getting close to 2 for 1 shares since the C,S,&I are off 40%. As the market is now, I would advise gathering up shares with the money going to TSP from your check. You are close to the bottom, if not there. You can put into practice dollar cost averaging going up.
Re: Educate Yourself
Retired FED US COURTS Thu Oct 23, 2008 9:26 AM
I may have made a mistake, but when the Gov't came to my front door and said " we are from the Gov't and are here to help you.......we think you should switch to FERS from CSRS..." I ran the other way.....my wife is still employed under FERS and we compare the difference in projected retirement, and I am glad I stayed with CSRS....
Privatise Social Security
Div Chief Air Force Tue Oct 14, 2008 12:02 PM
I'm glad the Dems were able to stop privatising social security. I can imagine the social unrest we'd have if people had lost a large chunk of their annuity payments. And thank goodness I'm in CSRS. The stock market is great for any extra money you may have, but to trust it for retirement is crazy.
Re: Privatise Social Security
analyst government Tue Oct 14, 2008 3:16 PM
I beg to differ with your statement, I had the chance to pick CSRS offset or FERS due to FERCCA. I chose FERS! I get the advantage of makeup contributions and experience compound interest. That is in addition to a fixed FERS annuity and FERS supplement until age 62, then the supplement drops with SSA to kick in along with the FERS annuity. I will receive a good chunk of change!!!!!
Re: Privatise Social Security
analyst DOD Tue Oct 14, 2008 6:06 PM
Div Chief, a properly diversified privatized portfolio of someone who was already receiving payments (aka retired). It would have very little exposure to the stock market, instead would be primarily in bonds or cash instruments. Therefore they wouldn't be losing a large chunk of their payments as you've stated.
Also, keep in mind that a properly diversified privatized portfolio would have given that person a much larger pot of money to start retirement with when compared to traditional social security so volatility is much more easily handled.
Final point - the traditional social security plan the dems are endorsing will go bankrupt because of demographic trends, that's a mathmatical certainty. A privatized plan will be self supporting in the long run.
Re: Privatise Social Security
Mechanic DOD Thu Oct 16, 2008 2:05 AM
To the analyst,
I am also a FERCCA case who chose FERS over CSRS-offset. I would very much want to speak with you. Can I get your e-mail address?
Re: Privatise Social Security
Retired FED US COURTS Thu Oct 23, 2008 10:48 AM
I would also differ with Div Chief, and agree with Analyst's "final point" as mentined earlier, I may have made a mistake, but when the Gov't came to my front door and said " we are from the Gov't and are here to help you.......we think you should switch to FERS from CSRS..." I ran the other way.....my wife is still employed under FERS and we compare the difference in projected retirement, and I am glad I stayed with CSRS....
Look-up Codes for TSP Funds
Supv. Contract Specialist Internal Revenue Service Tue Oct 14, 2008 3:50 PM
Ralph,
This is really a question, versus a "comment." What are the actual look-up codes for the "C", "S" and "I" funds? I'm confused because, for example, the TSP site describes the "C" fund as being invested in the "Barclays Equity Index Fund", which is suppose to track the S&P 500. Is the look-up "$INX" or something else. How about the "S" fund, is that "DWCPF"; and, the "I", is that "EFA". Or, is it not possible to accurately track the performance of these three funds directly from the reporting services, because of underlying investment practices that smooth out some of the volatility?
Lookup Codes for F/C/S/I
App/Db Programmer USMC Tue Oct 14, 2008 6:24 PM
Supervisor Contract Specialist...
I use the following (from www.tsptalk.com) quotes to get the daily/weekly/etc. percentage change:
The actual share price differs, but the percentage of change is the same.
I don't think you will find a complete match. I think the TSP funds are actually institutional - and, thus not sold in the marketplace.
Re: Lookup Codes for F/C/S/I
Product Specialist DSCP Thu Oct 16, 2008 10:44 AM
Thanks APP/DB Programmer,
I was using DWCPF for the S Fund. I don't remember why. But, TSPTalk.com is the greatest site. That and FedSmith keep government employees up to date. I share both sites with all of my co-workers.
negative growth after 10 years in an index fund
engineer usace Tue Oct 14, 2008 8:59 PM
I had $55K in a SP500 index fund before the tech bubble burst and I have not contributed to it since and left it in the the fund. There are no guarantees in the stock market. Recent history has shown there are a few people getting rich off retirement savings plans but most of them are not the investors.
Sticking with the C fund
police officer VA Wed Oct 15, 2008 6:05 AM
You guys slay me, how much does the TSP pay you to sway the little guys like me? Your theory is great if I pick when to retire but when I want to retire and it's in the bottom of a 30% plus string of losing years, guess what, I'm screwed! Who wants to "extend" their retirement that many years just to get back where they were?
Volatility
Fed Worker DOD Wed Oct 15, 2008 6:08 AM
I think the TSP funds are properly volatile. Where we come out ahead is the lower fees which are the lowest anywhere. The C fund mirrors the S&P 500, and the S is the Wilshire 4500, and just looking at the I fund which covers some very good companies whom are also suffering from losses in these tough economic times. The bear market rally was nice, but can it be sustained when all the numbers are bad? I am not so sure. That said mind you; Even if the majority of your nest egg is in the G fund you SHOULD be buying new shares with the NEW contributions at this time. Even if the market drops to 5000 it looks like a place now to start dollar cost averaging even if you are going to retire soon. If you have more than a 20 year time horizon you should be buying as many shares as you can afford at this time. If you are skiddish, just use new contributions. Just protect your nest egg/cat food money.
Why Invest in Risky TSP Stock Funds? Educate your
Civil Engineer DOD Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:01 AM
Well as usual Smitty is still drinking the FTRIB/Barclays Kool-aid. And the imposition limited IFT’s has also CAUSED costs to rise. The trading costs would go up, not down. The FTRIB/Barclay Cabal told us they would they would go down. Costs have soared.
Through July:
YTD costs for F fund went from 192,000 to 1,552,711
YTD costs for C fund went from -216,254 to +329,258
YTD costs for S fund went from -101,308 to + 367,371
and in July alone, I fund trading costs went from $248,847 to $2,796,494
Things that make you go hmmm. Someone has been lying to us. We were all assured that those costs would even get lower. I think someone got caught up in the sub prime mess and use us Feds, to pull there chestnuts out of the fire with the help of OUR FTRIB, who is suppose to be looking out for our best interests.
An as for me, I’d prefer a safe, secure retirement without participating in the capitalist economic system, because capitalism is on it’s way out and will go full bore in about 30 days. I know many CSRS employees and I’d much rather have there retirement plan. FERS was just a system to save the Gov’t money. Hopefully obama’s pledge to allow us to pull $10K out of out plans will bear fruit, cause I want to remove as much as possible from it, though I will continue to contribute. I just want to ensure it’s safe from The FTRIB/Barclay Cabal.
Why are we being forced by Smitty and the Cabal to continue to trough money at down the rat hole, when you protect what you have and just wait a little for an upward trend. With less that 5 years to go, just base on the L funds alone, I’d be approximately $45 K in the hole and no one can tell how long this will last.
Just educate yourself and don’t blindly follow Smitty and the Cabal.
A disgruntled FERS Employee
Re: Why Invest in Risky TSP Stock Funds? Educate your
Supervisor DOL Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:04 AM
Many of you may doubt what cilvil engineer is saying...just do the research:
Barclays admits borrowing hundreds of millions at Bank's emergency rate
Ashley Seager, Larry Elliott and Julia Kollewe
The Guardian,
Friday August 31 2007
Barclays has been forced to borrow hundreds of millions of pounds [622 mil US] from the Bank of England's emergency lending facility for the second time in a fortnight, it was revealed last night.
In a hurried and emotive statement after London's markets had closed, Barclays attempted to calm fears that it faces a cash crisis. Rumours had circulated all day that Barclays was forced to go to the Bank of England after the central bank said it had lent £1.6bn at its penal rate of 6.75%. It is thought that Barclays borrowed the entire amount...
Edward Cahill, the banker in charge of collateralised debt obligations at Barclays Capital, resigned last week, and others in his department are understood to have departed...Barclay's to explain...
Re: Why Invest in Risky TSP Stock Funds? Educate your
Supervisor DOL Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:08 AM
UK banks set to unveil bailout plans
Reuters
By Ralph Gowling and Steve Slater
Sun Oct 12, 2008
Major British banks are likely to announce their plans to recapitalize early on Monday, a person familiar with the matter said, a move which could see the government take multi-billion pound stakes in several lenders….The Sunday Times said Royal Bank of Scotland, HBOS, Lloyds TSB and Barclays could ask for a combined 35 billion-pound lifeline…Lloyds, RBS, HBOS and Barclays all declined to comment...Barclays, Britain's second biggest bank, has said it is considering raising capital privately and is expected to try and raise funds from existing shareholders to limit any funds provided by the government.
Re: Why Invest in Risky TSP Stock Funds? Educate your
Civil Engineer DOD Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:08 AM
Yeah I saw that article also. It sounds pretty familiar, according the T. Thomas Emswiler, general counsel for the TSP, "TSP funds are held under a true trust arrangement, Even if BGI were to experience financial difficulty, TSP funds would be safe." That's one reason Congress can borrow them, they have to make good on the borrowing/interest/losses. However, there is no mention of that caveat about the TSP fund manager voluntarily making up losses or getting sued under the 1934 Securities Act. So is TSP safe or not.
Bloomberg reported May 14, 2008 that “The numbers coming out of Barclays Plc, the U.K.'s third-largest bank, don't seem to add up, leaving analysts convinced that further writedowns are inevitable in tomorrow's interim trading statement from the firm.” Is that financial improprieties? Barclays is suppose to back up our funds with 105% collateral, but 105% of zero is zero and the only recourse, we have, in getting our funds back are is if the administrator would vouluntarily give them back, yeah sure and I still believe in the tooth fairy, or we can sue. Enron anyone?
The whole IFT limitation was a smokescreen because Barclays was gambling with our funds and Congress as usual just sit on their thumbs and continue to let it happen. Bad investments, Sub Prime, was more likely the culprit for funding problems.
So please take the time to read the minutes of the monthly meetings and our agreement with Barclays. The Cabal is depending on our laizze faire attitude when it comes to watching out for our funds.
TO Supervisory IT Specialist
Tom HF Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:48 AM
Sorry about your crystal ball :) I don't need one, it's just common sense.
It's obvious that the overall market trend is down, we just had a bear market rally on tuesday. If you study the previous recessions and economic indicators, it will take a while -years- to start going back up and this is one is going to be a monster recession btw. Following the DJIA curve, even if I miss the early rebound by say 6 months, I still will be ahead at least 30%. The markets dont rally up to normal in say 1 week after a recession is receding, it takes at least 3+ years.
BTW it takes money to make money. If you lost 40%, you will need more than that to recoup what you lost -say 55%- since you have less capital.
Need to use a more realistic example
Statistician Census Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:13 AM
While your example is informative it need to be much more realistic. I do not know of anyone who put $50,000 in the TSP twenty years ago and never made another deposit. The more reasonable example is someone who put in a fixed amount each pay period with that amount growing through the years as pay increases and promotions occur. In that situation it is much more important what happened in the stock marked over the last ten years as that is when the TSP fund had the larger balances.
I also have to object to you ending the analysis with 2007 as you have picked the year where the stock market was at the peak. That works well for those who are good at market timing, but does not work well for most people. Perhaps you should extend the time frame out to closer to the present time. The $576,000 in the stock market a year ago would be less than $350,000 today. That is a huge difference when someone decides on where to put his or her money.
Good Article
Fish and Wildlife Biologist U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:43 PM
I enjoyed this article. It wasn't anything new, but it strengthened my current tactic for investing.
Why Seek a Haven in G? To Make More Money!
Product Specialist DSCP Thu Oct 16, 2008 9:42 AM
Whenever the Market starts diving, I put everything in G because G is guaranteed and always goes up, even if it does so slowly, that's better than losing your funds.
When the stocks start going up again, I buy back while they're still comparably priced to the G.
So while hard noses have lost 30% of their total fund value, mine have increased modestly.
Hoping that the market is near bottom, I've just moved a good portion back into stocks, which remain comparably priced to the G, some cheaper still.
So, I'm following the Golden Rule: Sell high; Buy low.
This takes more work than just trusting that over the course of time everything goes up, but I believe, in the short run, my efforts will be rewarded.
I thank Tom Crowley of TSPTalk.com for his wise advice.
But for those who haven't the time or inclination to follow the market, Ralph Smith is certainly right.
Either way, we're gambling with our futures. All the charts in the world won't tell what the market will do tomorrow.
C, S, I
FIRE GOD USFS Sat Oct 18, 2008 9:21 PM
no csi is not a tv show. it is fun to watch. i pulled all my money out of the g fund as in 0% in g and went in 5% in each of the l fund and the rest in c,s and i and yes i have 40% of my pay going in to c,s and i . ( at a gs-7 that ant much)dam the torpetos the market is down, wake up get out of g fund and make your money work for you. no the market is not at bottom , buy on the way down and on the way up and you will do just fine.
as far as the 2 trade limit it is my money let me manage it as i see fit.
if you were any good at managing the funds no one would be loosing money. i'm not let me run the thing!!! (check out the motley fool)
thank you
the fire good
Showing shares
Writer Bureau of Reclamation Mon Oct 20, 2008 10:10 AM
It would be a lot better emotionally to show the number of shares. My Roth IRA shows the value going down, but my number of shares going up. My TSP only shows the value going down.
Why can't the TSP show number of shares? Do we own shares or just a value?
Re: Showing shares
RMO USSTRATCOM Tue Oct 28, 2008 3:40 PM
If you go into your TSP account you will see that there are five columns of data (Investment Fund, Shares, Share Price, Balance and Distribution. I think what your looking for is in column two (Shares).
RETIRING IN ONE YEAR AAND ALL TSP IS IN STOCKS
Federal Employee OIG - USPS Mon Oct 20, 2008 2:01 PM
I am confused!! I have 50% in the C, @%% in the F and 25% in the I funds. I was thinking of moving all earned monies into the G fund and leaving all future earnings where they are. Is that a wise move, since I do plan to retire in one year. I was not planning on touching my TSP until I have to.
Please give me your thoughts.
Re: RETIRING IN ONE YEAR AAND ALL TSP IS IN STOCKS
analyst DOD Mon Oct 20, 2008 6:19 PM
If you're about to retire I would reduce your stock exposure substantially (but not get out entirely).
Two recommendations:
1) Talk to a financial advisor about your asset allocation right now, he can give you more specific advice once he'she knows more about your individual situation.
2) Consider rolling your money out of the TSP and into and IRA once you retire. The main tax advantage of the TSP is that contributions are made with pre-tax money and that advantage is no longer applicable when you stop contributing. Also, a good IRA will give you considerably more investment options with the potential of smoother returns over the years.
Timing of Transactions
Work Leader KyARNG Sat Oct 25, 2008 7:49 AM
Employees investing in the TSP should be educated to some degree on the markets that are available prior to making investments. I've taken some time to try and learn the system. I must admit however that I am gazillions of miles away from being a market pro. I would like to explain a scenario that I performed. Although you can't accurately estimate the market downturn, you can listen to the pro's and get a reasonably good feel. As the market came down, I moved ALL of my stock funds (C,S & I)(I had none in G) into the G Fund. I had $100,000.00 on the initial downslide with $95,000 when I sold and dumped in the G Fund. The good news is when the market bottoms out, and I can "hopefully" detect that bottom out effect, I will buy back into the stock funds. Assuming the stocks return to their past values, I'll most likely double or even approach triple value.
TSP investors need to remember an important fact... the # of shares doesn't decrease... the VALUE decreases!
TSP stock puchases
Recce Maintenance Officer USSTRATCOM Mon Oct 27, 2008 3:43 PM
When are shares of stock purchased after contributions are made through payrol deduction...next business day, specific day(s) of the month?
Thanks,
why invest in tsp
retired USPS Tue Oct 28, 2008 11:42 AM
FERS employees don't have a choice. They are stuck with the poor performing TSP funds. I compare this to the poor folks who had their entire 401k invested in the company stock of the company they worked for. Many of my friends who were invested in their company stock have seen 90% of it disappear.
A couple years before I retired, I sold all my wife's company stock @$50. This stock is now ar $4.50 share. Sad for those who kept it.
The only advantage to TSP is that FERS gets $ for $ from the agency. Too bad there are Fannie Mae types running the plan.
TSP
Management Information Specialist PBGC Tue Dec 16, 2008 12:33 PM
I am a single woman that have been working in the federal government for over 13 years. Now that I have been making more money in the last year, I have been able to input 15% of my salary into my TSP, but in less than three months I have seen my TSP drop down over $25,000.00 in the I fund because of the market. I have been so busy working on several projects at work that I did not notice that I had lost that much money until the TSP quartely report came to my house. Last year I had over $100,000 in my TSP account but as of today I have less than $ 45,000.00 in my TSP account. This makes me very angry because I can't watch the market everyday on tv; but I do have a suggestion to the TSP. They need to give the FERS people the option to receivd an e-mail on the daily changes to the different Funds because we are in a world of changes. If I had an e-mail reminder like this then I would moved my money earlier. Being a FERS and not a CERS has hurt me because I don't understand the market.
Re: TSP
editor FedSmith.com Tue Dec 16, 2008 2:21 PM
We send out the latest changes to the TSP each daily in the FedSmith newsletter as well as post the latest updates to each TSP fund by month. We also cover the changes to the TSP funds in the past month at the beginning of each month. You can also sign up to use the TSP portfolio tracker to track the daily value of your account automatically and it is also a free service.
In effect, the service you are asking for is already available to you at no cost.
barclays
worker usg Sat Jun 6, 2009 9:42 PM
with Moody’s forecasts “potentially significant further losses at Barclays" and the fact that the TSP funds they managed are not really mutual funds with stock symbols for trading but instead are 'bank commingled funds', what is the risk to our funds that they manage?
Concur, with caveats...
USMC
Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:43 AM
Mr. Smith,
I just found this site via the largest of the 'day trade' communities out there (TSPTalk). Many on that site bemoan the trading limit, many don't care.
I also just started participating at this site. It is amazing how emotional and new some of these folks are. Many want some form of government insurance on their TSP retirement benefits - that will only eat into their returns, at best. Some felt that the market was frothing and moved assets into the G Fund. I did so, but not the 100% move these folks are claiming. And many, after reading about the timely transfers, bailed out last week. Now they are probably jumping in.
Uuuuugggghhhhh.
On the other hand, I do think a two trade limit is too little. I should be able to reallocate as to hold my allocation as the market fluctuates. My holdings are no longer allocated as I wish – they are too conservative because of the losses. Not by much, but who is to say.
Why keep pushing employees to lose money?
Does it matter?
Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:46 AM
I cannot understand why FEDSMITH continues to push employees to keep investing in other than G funds at this moment.
I switched all my money to G funds in or around April after losing about 3k before finally wising up. I would have been sleepless during the past 6 months if I had not move my own funds. (I receive no government contribution, so it is truly MY money).
All funds this year have lost or are losing money and it seems the market will not rebound this year.
Re: Why keep pushing employees to lose money?
ACF
Tue Oct 14, 2008 12:43 PM
Re: Why keep pushing employees to lose money?
tso
Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:23 PM
Re: Why keep pushing employees to lose money?
HF
Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:20 PM
Just keep an eye on the market trend. Stagflation is coming to stay for a while (1-3 years) and it wont be pretty.
Re: Why keep pushing employees to lose money?
DON
Wed Oct 15, 2008 8:23 AM
Re: Why keep pushing employees to lose money?
DSCP
Thu Oct 16, 2008 10:10 AM
When you feel the Market has straightened out and is on the upswing again, the stocks are still cheap, as they are now, some even lower in price than G Funds.
But, of course, for those who don't have time to follow the market, sticking with stocks makes sense over the long haul. Either way, we're gambling with our future.
Social Security was the greatest program ever. My brother retired recently. He was a businessman and had prepared well for retirement, never counting on Social Security, which had been so badly badmouthed for so many years. To his surprise, he's getting $2,000/mo. Social Security payments. He can thank FDR!
Re: Why keep pushing employees to lose money?
FCC
Thu Oct 23, 2008 12:42 PM
Re: Why keep pushing employees to lose money?
DOI
Fri Oct 24, 2008 9:16 AM
I get sick and tired of the "stay in it for the long haul crowd"! Anytime someone is within 10 years (maybe more this time) of retirement, they should be extremely cautious about investing in stocks, because a major bear market may take up to 10 years (maybe more this time- depends on how much long-term damage is done to the world economy) to recover from.
My market timing is often not the best, but I could see this bear market coming at me like a freight train! I expected a calmer version of what is happening now, to happen in 2001-2002, but the Fed prevented a REAL recession (which we needed to have) from occurring. I've been 100% in the G Fund since before we went to daily valuation, but now my share price is higher than all but two TSP funds! I'm sleeping well at night!
Thrift Savings Plan
USPS
Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:06 AM
Sit tight and watch your money disappear in these funds. Sad but true. As we all look back, we can say, I wish I had moved the money....
I have lost more money in this plan than my other investments. But then, it's government.
Educate Yourself
ACF
Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:28 AM
Those of you that get scared about the stock market fluctuations, ask yourself a few questions:
1. How much time do you spend a week reading about investments, not just stock?
2. Do you follow the market as close when things are going good?
When you spend a little time daily or weekly trying to learn you will do so much better. You will start seeing the glass half full, not half empty. Even if you are close to retiring you still have opportunities in this market. If you say your about to retire and all your money is in stocks, then you were not diligent taking care of your financial health. I am steadily gathering up shares in the C,S, & I. I am getting close to 2 for 1 shares since the C,S,&I are off 40%. As the market is now, I would advise gathering up shares with the money going to TSP from your check. You are close to the bottom, if not there. You can put into practice dollar cost averaging going up.
Re: Educate Yourself
US COURTS
Thu Oct 23, 2008 9:26 AM
Privatise Social Security
Air Force
Tue Oct 14, 2008 12:02 PM
I'm glad the Dems were able to stop privatising social security. I can imagine the social unrest we'd have if people had lost a large chunk of their annuity payments. And thank goodness I'm in CSRS. The stock market is great for any extra money you may have, but to trust it for retirement is crazy.
Re: Privatise Social Security
government
Tue Oct 14, 2008 3:16 PM
Re: Privatise Social Security
DOD
Tue Oct 14, 2008 6:06 PM
Also, keep in mind that a properly diversified privatized portfolio would have given that person a much larger pot of money to start retirement with when compared to traditional social security so volatility is much more easily handled.
Final point - the traditional social security plan the dems are endorsing will go bankrupt because of demographic trends, that's a mathmatical certainty. A privatized plan will be self supporting in the long run.
Re: Privatise Social Security
DOD
Thu Oct 16, 2008 2:05 AM
I am also a FERCCA case who chose FERS over CSRS-offset. I would very much want to speak with you. Can I get your e-mail address?
Re: Privatise Social Security
US COURTS
Thu Oct 23, 2008 10:48 AM
Look-up Codes for TSP Funds
Internal Revenue Service
Tue Oct 14, 2008 3:50 PM
Ralph,
This is really a question, versus a "comment." What are the actual look-up codes for the "C", "S" and "I" funds? I'm confused because, for example, the TSP site describes the "C" fund as being invested in the "Barclays Equity Index Fund", which is suppose to track the S&P 500. Is the look-up "$INX" or something else. How about the "S" fund, is that "DWCPF"; and, the "I", is that "EFA". Or, is it not possible to accurately track the performance of these three funds directly from the reporting services, because of underlying investment practices that smooth out some of the volatility?
Lookup Codes for F/C/S/I
USMC
Tue Oct 14, 2008 6:24 PM
Supervisor Contract Specialist...
I use the following (from www.tsptalk.com) quotes to get the daily/weekly/etc. percentage change:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^gspc+VXF+efa+agg&d=t
The actual share price differs, but the percentage of change is the same.
I don't think you will find a complete match. I think the TSP funds are actually institutional - and, thus not sold in the marketplace.
Re: Lookup Codes for F/C/S/I
DSCP
Thu Oct 16, 2008 10:44 AM
I was using DWCPF for the S Fund. I don't remember why. But, TSPTalk.com is the greatest site. That and FedSmith keep government employees up to date. I share both sites with all of my co-workers.
negative growth after 10 years in an index fund
usace
Tue Oct 14, 2008 8:59 PM
I had $55K in a SP500 index fund before the tech bubble burst and I have not contributed to it since and left it in the the fund. There are no guarantees in the stock market. Recent history has shown there are a few people getting rich off retirement savings plans but most of them are not the investors.
Sticking with the C fund
VA
Wed Oct 15, 2008 6:05 AM
You guys slay me, how much does the TSP pay you to sway the little guys like me? Your theory is great if I pick when to retire but when I want to retire and it's in the bottom of a 30% plus string of losing years, guess what, I'm screwed! Who wants to "extend" their retirement that many years just to get back where they were?
Volatility
DOD
Wed Oct 15, 2008 6:08 AM
I think the TSP funds are properly volatile. Where we come out ahead is the lower fees which are the lowest anywhere. The C fund mirrors the S&P 500, and the S is the Wilshire 4500, and just looking at the I fund which covers some very good companies whom are also suffering from losses in these tough economic times. The bear market rally was nice, but can it be sustained when all the numbers are bad? I am not so sure. That said mind you; Even if the majority of your nest egg is in the G fund you SHOULD be buying new shares with the NEW contributions at this time. Even if the market drops to 5000 it looks like a place now to start dollar cost averaging even if you are going to retire soon. If you have more than a 20 year time horizon you should be buying as many shares as you can afford at this time. If you are skiddish, just use new contributions. Just protect your nest egg/cat food money.
Why Invest in Risky TSP Stock Funds? Educate your
DOD
Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:01 AM
Well as usual Smitty is still drinking the FTRIB/Barclays Kool-aid. And the imposition limited IFT’s has also CAUSED costs to rise. The trading costs would go up, not down. The FTRIB/Barclay Cabal told us they would they would go down. Costs have soared.
Through July:
YTD costs for F fund went from 192,000 to 1,552,711
YTD costs for C fund went from -216,254 to +329,258
YTD costs for S fund went from -101,308 to + 367,371
and in July alone, I fund trading costs went from $248,847 to $2,796,494
Things that make you go hmmm. Someone has been lying to us. We were all assured that those costs would even get lower. I think someone got caught up in the sub prime mess and use us Feds, to pull there chestnuts out of the fire with the help of OUR FTRIB, who is suppose to be looking out for our best interests.
An as for me, I’d prefer a safe, secure retirement without participating in the capitalist economic system, because capitalism is on it’s way out and will go full bore in about 30 days. I know many CSRS employees and I’d much rather have there retirement plan. FERS was just a system to save the Gov’t money. Hopefully obama’s pledge to allow us to pull $10K out of out plans will bear fruit, cause I want to remove as much as possible from it, though I will continue to contribute. I just want to ensure it’s safe from The FTRIB/Barclay Cabal.
Why are we being forced by Smitty and the Cabal to continue to trough money at down the rat hole, when you protect what you have and just wait a little for an upward trend. With less that 5 years to go, just base on the L funds alone, I’d be approximately $45 K in the hole and no one can tell how long this will last.
Just educate yourself and don’t blindly follow Smitty and the Cabal.
A disgruntled FERS Employee
Re: Why Invest in Risky TSP Stock Funds? Educate your
DOL
Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:04 AM
Barclays admits borrowing hundreds of millions at Bank's emergency rate
Ashley Seager, Larry Elliott and Julia Kollewe
The Guardian,
Friday August 31 2007
Barclays has been forced to borrow hundreds of millions of pounds [622 mil US] from the Bank of England's emergency lending facility for the second time in a fortnight, it was revealed last night.
In a hurried and emotive statement after London's markets had closed, Barclays attempted to calm fears that it faces a cash crisis. Rumours had circulated all day that Barclays was forced to go to the Bank of England after the central bank said it had lent £1.6bn at its penal rate of 6.75%. It is thought that Barclays borrowed the entire amount...
Edward Cahill, the banker in charge of collateralised debt obligations at Barclays Capital, resigned last week, and others in his department are understood to have departed...Barclay's to explain...
Re: Why Invest in Risky TSP Stock Funds? Educate your
DOL
Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:08 AM
Reuters
By Ralph Gowling and Steve Slater
Sun Oct 12, 2008
Major British banks are likely to announce their plans to recapitalize early on Monday, a person familiar with the matter said, a move which could see the government take multi-billion pound stakes in several lenders….The Sunday Times said Royal Bank of Scotland, HBOS, Lloyds TSB and Barclays could ask for a combined 35 billion-pound lifeline…Lloyds, RBS, HBOS and Barclays all declined to comment...Barclays, Britain's second biggest bank, has said it is considering raising capital privately and is expected to try and raise funds from existing shareholders to limit any funds provided by the government.
Re: Why Invest in Risky TSP Stock Funds? Educate your
DOD
Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:08 AM
Bloomberg reported May 14, 2008 that “The numbers coming out of Barclays Plc, the U.K.'s third-largest bank, don't seem to add up, leaving analysts convinced that further writedowns are inevitable in tomorrow's interim trading statement from the firm.” Is that financial improprieties? Barclays is suppose to back up our funds with 105% collateral, but 105% of zero is zero and the only recourse, we have, in getting our funds back are is if the administrator would vouluntarily give them back, yeah sure and I still believe in the tooth fairy, or we can sue. Enron anyone?
The whole IFT limitation was a smokescreen because Barclays was gambling with our funds and Congress as usual just sit on their thumbs and continue to let it happen. Bad investments, Sub Prime, was more likely the culprit for funding problems.
So please take the time to read the minutes of the monthly meetings and our agreement with Barclays. The Cabal is depending on our laizze faire attitude when it comes to watching out for our funds.
TO Supervisory IT Specialist
HF
Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:48 AM
Sorry about your crystal ball :) I don't need one, it's just common sense.
It's obvious that the overall market trend is down, we just had a bear market rally on tuesday. If you study the previous recessions and economic indicators, it will take a while -years- to start going back up and this is one is going to be a monster recession btw. Following the DJIA curve, even if I miss the early rebound by say 6 months, I still will be ahead at least 30%. The markets dont rally up to normal in say 1 week after a recession is receding, it takes at least 3+ years.
BTW it takes money to make money. If you lost 40%, you will need more than that to recoup what you lost -say 55%- since you have less capital.
Need to use a more realistic example
Census
Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:13 AM
While your example is informative it need to be much more realistic. I do not know of anyone who put $50,000 in the TSP twenty years ago and never made another deposit. The more reasonable example is someone who put in a fixed amount each pay period with that amount growing through the years as pay increases and promotions occur. In that situation it is much more important what happened in the stock marked over the last ten years as that is when the TSP fund had the larger balances.
I also have to object to you ending the analysis with 2007 as you have picked the year where the stock market was at the peak. That works well for those who are good at market timing, but does not work well for most people. Perhaps you should extend the time frame out to closer to the present time. The $576,000 in the stock market a year ago would be less than $350,000 today. That is a huge difference when someone decides on where to put his or her money.
Good Article
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:43 PM
I enjoyed this article. It wasn't anything new, but it strengthened my current tactic for investing.
Why Seek a Haven in G? To Make More Money!
DSCP
Thu Oct 16, 2008 9:42 AM
Whenever the Market starts diving, I put everything in G because G is guaranteed and always goes up, even if it does so slowly, that's better than losing your funds.
When the stocks start going up again, I buy back while they're still comparably priced to the G.
So while hard noses have lost 30% of their total fund value, mine have increased modestly.
Hoping that the market is near bottom, I've just moved a good portion back into stocks, which remain comparably priced to the G, some cheaper still.
So, I'm following the Golden Rule: Sell high; Buy low.
This takes more work than just trusting that over the course of time everything goes up, but I believe, in the short run, my efforts will be rewarded.
I thank Tom Crowley of TSPTalk.com for his wise advice.
But for those who haven't the time or inclination to follow the market, Ralph Smith is certainly right.
Either way, we're gambling with our futures. All the charts in the world won't tell what the market will do tomorrow.
C, S, I
USFS
Sat Oct 18, 2008 9:21 PM
no csi is not a tv show. it is fun to watch. i pulled all my money out of the g fund as in 0% in g and went in 5% in each of the l fund and the rest in c,s and i and yes i have 40% of my pay going in to c,s and i . ( at a gs-7 that ant much)dam the torpetos the market is down, wake up get out of g fund and make your money work for you. no the market is not at bottom , buy on the way down and on the way up and you will do just fine.
as far as the 2 trade limit it is my money let me manage it as i see fit.
if you were any good at managing the funds no one would be loosing money. i'm not let me run the thing!!! (check out the motley fool)
thank you
the fire good
Showing shares
Bureau of Reclamation
Mon Oct 20, 2008 10:10 AM
It would be a lot better emotionally to show the number of shares. My Roth IRA shows the value going down, but my number of shares going up. My TSP only shows the value going down.
Why can't the TSP show number of shares? Do we own shares or just a value?
Re: Showing shares
USSTRATCOM
Tue Oct 28, 2008 3:40 PM
RETIRING IN ONE YEAR AAND ALL TSP IS IN STOCKS
OIG - USPS
Mon Oct 20, 2008 2:01 PM
I am confused!! I have 50% in the C, @%% in the F and 25% in the I funds. I was thinking of moving all earned monies into the G fund and leaving all future earnings where they are. Is that a wise move, since I do plan to retire in one year. I was not planning on touching my TSP until I have to.
Please give me your thoughts.
Re: RETIRING IN ONE YEAR AAND ALL TSP IS IN STOCKS
DOD
Mon Oct 20, 2008 6:19 PM
Two recommendations:
1) Talk to a financial advisor about your asset allocation right now, he can give you more specific advice once he'she knows more about your individual situation.
2) Consider rolling your money out of the TSP and into and IRA once you retire. The main tax advantage of the TSP is that contributions are made with pre-tax money and that advantage is no longer applicable when you stop contributing. Also, a good IRA will give you considerably more investment options with the potential of smoother returns over the years.
Timing of Transactions
KyARNG
Sat Oct 25, 2008 7:49 AM
Employees investing in the TSP should be educated to some degree on the markets that are available prior to making investments. I've taken some time to try and learn the system. I must admit however that I am gazillions of miles away from being a market pro. I would like to explain a scenario that I performed. Although you can't accurately estimate the market downturn, you can listen to the pro's and get a reasonably good feel. As the market came down, I moved ALL of my stock funds (C,S & I)(I had none in G) into the G Fund. I had $100,000.00 on the initial downslide with $95,000 when I sold and dumped in the G Fund. The good news is when the market bottoms out, and I can "hopefully" detect that bottom out effect, I will buy back into the stock funds. Assuming the stocks return to their past values, I'll most likely double or even approach triple value.
TSP investors need to remember an important fact... the # of shares doesn't decrease... the VALUE decreases!
TSP stock puchases
USSTRATCOM
Mon Oct 27, 2008 3:43 PM
When are shares of stock purchased after contributions are made through payrol deduction...next business day, specific day(s) of the month?
Thanks,
why invest in tsp
USPS
Tue Oct 28, 2008 11:42 AM
FERS employees don't have a choice. They are stuck with the poor performing TSP funds. I compare this to the poor folks who had their entire 401k invested in the company stock of the company they worked for. Many of my friends who were invested in their company stock have seen 90% of it disappear.
A couple years before I retired, I sold all my wife's company stock @$50. This stock is now ar $4.50 share. Sad for those who kept it.
The only advantage to TSP is that FERS gets $ for $ from the agency. Too bad there are Fannie Mae types running the plan.
TSP
PBGC
Tue Dec 16, 2008 12:33 PM
I am a single woman that have been working in the federal government for over 13 years. Now that I have been making more money in the last year, I have been able to input 15% of my salary into my TSP, but in less than three months I have seen my TSP drop down over $25,000.00 in the I fund because of the market. I have been so busy working on several projects at work that I did not notice that I had lost that much money until the TSP quartely report came to my house. Last year I had over $100,000 in my TSP account but as of today I have less than $ 45,000.00 in my TSP account. This makes me very angry because I can't watch the market everyday on tv; but I do have a suggestion to the TSP. They need to give the FERS people the option to receivd an e-mail on the daily changes to the different Funds because we are in a world of changes. If I had an e-mail reminder like this then I would moved my money earlier. Being a FERS and not a CERS has hurt me because I don't understand the market.
Re: TSP
FedSmith.com
Tue Dec 16, 2008 2:21 PM
In effect, the service you are asking for is already available to you at no cost.
barclays
usg
Sat Jun 6, 2009 9:42 PM
with Moody’s forecasts “potentially significant further losses at Barclays" and the fact that the TSP funds they managed are not really mutual funds with stock symbols for trading but instead are 'bank commingled funds', what is the risk to our funds that they manage?