None of this will matter in the slightest. If we end up with a President Obama, redistribution of the wealth will cause massive inflation to where we will all need wheel barrows to haul around currency.
The only steady employment will be the Bureau of Printing and Engraving.
Good luck to us all!
Re: TSP
Position Classifier Dept of Homeland Security Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:36 AM
I hope you are wrong!
The media is trying to get everyone to think Obama has the election all tied up with a bow on top. Let's show them they are wrong and vote McCain and pretty Sarah Palin in. She's a lot easier on the eyes than Biden !! Ha ha
Re: TSP
Supervisor USFS Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:00 AM
I object..............this is not the place for presidential campaign comments.
I would have lost more but that's all the money I
soon-to-be-retired DoD Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:27 AM
I know, that's a 'steal' from someone else, but it's exactly how I feel, and since I'm about to retire, I'm looking to not lose my shirt, skirt, or shoes before I leave. There is wisdom in what the author says, but I'm not young enough to want to risk any more loss at this point in my life. My TSP is not going to be a monthly part of my retirement, at least until I'm 70-1/2, or unless some disaster occurs. But I want to know there is SOMETHING STILL THERE! Besides, I moved my funds months ago, and plan to watch and when I feel more confident, I'll move some funds back into stocks to grow my money. To each his/her own.
Following the Herd?
Position Classifier Dept of Homeland Security Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:29 AM
Regarding the article about employees transferring their TSP funds to the safety of the C fund I add this for your consideration. Warren Buffet, the wealthiest man in America (he just passed Bill Gates for this honor) is BUYING millions of dollars of stocks for his mutual fund offerings. By the way you need a minimum of $1 million to invest in his funds. He is buying when the market is down, buying stocks on sale, similiar to buying steak on sale at the grocery store. There is nothing inherently wrong with the stocks, the market jitters and slides will eventually correct itself. Smart money stands firm. Fearful weak investors sell! Don't follow the pack. Be a leader and stay in your I, S, C and Lifecycle funds. I did !
Re: Following the Herd?
Tom HF Wed Oct 15, 2008 2:34 PM
Ha, Buffett has money to burn and he's got preferred shares BTW.
Go ahead keep your stocks and hold down the fort for the team! Keep working until your 80's. haha
Re: Following the Herd?
CO SSA Thu Oct 16, 2008 9:27 AM
Position Classifier,
For the record, Berkshire Hathaway is not a mutual fund, it's a holding company. Also, with a sharebuilder account, you can buy partial "B" shares for as little as $100 a month. There is no minimun $1M buy in. However, you can not buy partial "A" shares.
I saw the light w/Buffet years ago and have been buying patial shares on an auto monthly basis.
For all of you who pulled out of the C fund, you've officially locked in your losses. Next step is to buy high when all the smoke clears.
Returns
Position Classifier Dept of Homeland Security Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:33 AM
The reason you get such high returns on the C, I, S, etc. funds is because you are willing to take the risks. In certain times, like now, it will drop down, but in other times, it will go up. No risk = mediocre returns. The higher the risk you are willing to take, the corresponding higher returns you may accept. Come on people, this is not rocket science.
If you are not willing to take the risks, the common wisdom is, if you are 5 years or less to retirement, you should minimize your exposure to stocks, but NOT in the middle of a BEAR market.
Also, everyone should Always remain in stocks for the inflation protection. Without stocks, inflation will eat you alive when it rears its ugly head again...
Re: Returns
Civil Engineer VHA Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:01 AM
But the decision here is not either risk or no-risk. You can manage the risk. You can dollar cost average a lot more if you sell high and buy low. No on'es been able to sel me yet on the idea that my selling my C fund share at above $16 a share (when they're now $11+) was a bad idea. I don't need to pick the exact bottom to know that if I buy them again for $12 or $13 a share that I'm better off.
Sure you can buy your shares, like you buy your meat, on sale - but if you expect beef prices to keep declining, do you stock up now or later?
You haven't lost it til you sell it
Lead Archives Technician NARA Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:37 AM
I know everyone's situation is different. I am 8 years from retirement. I was stressing over all the money I had 'lost' since January. Then, when I heard last week that GM was trading at 1950's prices, I realized I hadn't lost anything yet. I still own the shares I've had all along. At that point, I decided to switch a portion of my future contributions - 100% of which I had going to the G fund since June - to stocks. This is the time to buy - if your situation warrants it.
Re: You haven't lost it til you sell it
Tom HF Wed Oct 15, 2008 2:38 PM
I wouldn't even touch GM shares, 2009 is going to be a bloodbath for American automakers and GM just announced it is closing more lines. It actually may go belly up sooner than later, bleeding >5billion per quarter is not sustainable.
Good Advice
Program Specialist ACF Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:39 AM
Warren Buffett says "Buy when everyone is selling and sell when everyone is buying." He's the self made billionaire.
If you take advice from someone, at least take advice from someone that is successful in what they are giving the advice about.
I love the herd mentality, it helps me ultimately make more money.
You who are in the G fund, at the very least you should allow the money coming out of your paycheck to be going into the C,S, & I funds. The funds are 40% off right now. Look up the term dollar cost averaging. If it goes down even more, every 2 wks. your money from your paycheck will continue to buy it down. You cannot time a market. At least take advantage of the discount while it is in the range of bottom. If it continues for a year or so at this level, you will have continued to add for when it goes up. Good Luck!!!!
Re: Good Advice
Systems Analyst USCG Thu Oct 16, 2008 11:18 AM
Sage advice. If you need to protect the bulk of your money because you're close to retirement I see no problem moving that to safe investments, however, put future contributions in the C,S,&I funds ... they will go up!
What is your tolerance
Inventory Manager USCG, Dept of Homeland Security Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:44 AM
There is no potential wrong thing to do. It is whatever your comfort and tolerance is for the swings. If you are close to retirement and feel safe moving to G...why not. That is basically what the L funds do for you. If you are a thrill seaker and can handle this unusual drop in the market stay the course and hope for the best. It is not a great feeling watch tens of thousands of dollars disappear in a few months. How long will it take to get it back......probably years.
Market Loss and the Sleep Factor
Realty Specialist Corps of Engineers Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:44 AM
Everyone has to have an idea of their own investment strategy, whether it's a herd follower or agressive moves in a down market. I'm a believer in the strategy that works best is the one that lets you sleep at night.
I went to all G fund two years ago
Civilian Pay Tech GSA Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:51 AM
I sleep a lot better. My peace of mind is worth more than all the gold in the world. If you have a calm outlook good health will follow. Simplify your life--quit chasing the false hope your riches will bring you happiness. Simplify your expenses--stop buying useless possessions to justify your thinking you are better than your fellow man. We all will pass away one day and you can't take it with you. By the by I noticed the last time the "I" fund was at 13 and change was 2004. You are in for a long and stressful wait.
Re: I went to all G fund two years ago
Program Specialist ACF Wed Oct 15, 2008 1:16 PM
Why does the wait have to be stressful? Gather up additional shares now why it is low.
There is a difference in chasing and informed investing.
Risk tolerance and time
rick DCMA Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:16 AM
All investing should be done based on risk tolerance and time. Since I'm a contrarian and don't plan on retiring for 10 years, I see this as an opportunity to minimize my investment cash investment and maximize the potential for return. Since no-one can accurately predict the bottom of the current market or when stocks will once again move upward, taking your money off the table at this point just means a loss of potential income when the market begins to turn. Now is a great time to buy since the stocks are reduced in value, and if you have time, the history has been a greater piece of return for those on the leading edge of recovery. Since the market will not return fully while Hussein is in office (his policies are anti-market), we can look for the market upswing sometime in the later half of his administration or the first half of Sarah's.
Re: Risk tolerance and time
Program Specialist ACF Wed Oct 15, 2008 1:20 PM
Very well said. I would like to see what the share price would be if the herd would have set still. The herd mentality is responsible for several dollars of the drop.
Shhhh!!!!!!! Don't tell them though, when they artifically drive the price down it adds money to our pockets.
In the G Fund, but Not Following the Herd
Retiring Soon (I hope) US Forest Service Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:16 AM
... and I kind of resent the implication that if you moved to the G fund you're just a dumb animal following the herd. If I were in my twenties, or even thirties, maybe even forties and had years to go to retirement, I'd stick it out in some of the riskier funds. But I'm not. Because I started my career after I raised a family, I've already worked past the usual retirement age, and may have to work even longer than I anticipated.
I don't follow the market closely. What I hear about it is whatever is on the news. And the market experts on the news I listen to (PBS) have said repeatedly, if you're young and have years to recoup your losses, stay the course. But if you're close to retirement, you shouldn't be in today's market if you can get out of it. I didn't make my decision to move to the G fund based on this, however. It just reinforced my decision.
Re: In the G Fund, but Not Following the Herd
DoD Civ AF Thu Oct 16, 2008 9:48 AM
I've only put in 15 years and when I could start my TSP I put it all in the G fund from the start. Several years ago I have only put 30% of it in the C fund. Most of my retirement is in the G Fund. I also, have a Roth IRA and some other investments. I'm not just putting my money into the TSP system alone. I'm doing OK.
TSP Gardening
engineer Air Force Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:22 AM
The only thing more wrong are the experts advising people to "wait it out". Get out of things that lose money when they start losing money, not after you have lost so much it hurts! You don't stay in a boat when it sinks.
The inflation and deflation cycle is managed by the financial interests (FRB!) to make sure they don't lose money. It is cyclic, but irregular. You must watch the economy like the weather and seasons and your savings like a garden. Don't leave your flowers outside during a freeze!
Calculate the time and money you spend on your vacation, sports, hobbies, and recreation and put 10% towards learning about the economy and financial markets.
I have been in G Fund since early in the year. I made one transfer to F for a few days. My account value is the highest it has ever been. I will go back into the other funds when the weather is past.
investment choices
nrc custodian Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:32 AM
Where are all of the dopes who were complaining about the frequent transfer in/out of funds or that investing was intended to be long term. It would be nice to have that feature now wouldn't it?
Re: investment choices
Program Specialist ACF Wed Oct 15, 2008 1:25 PM
I'm not a dope but:
Investing is long term
Trading is short term
I see you are a custodian, I'm sure you are good at your job.
Re: investment choices
programmer tso Wed Oct 15, 2008 7:22 PM
"I see you are a custodian, I'm sure you are good at your job."
What's that got to do with anything?
Re: investment choices
analyst DOD Wed Oct 15, 2008 8:57 PM
Hey Program Specialist - you mind telling us why you think it's important to point out that our friend from the nrc is a custodian??
Re: investment choices
Program Specialist ACF Thu Oct 16, 2008 7:42 AM
Yeah, I disagree with the frequent in/out trading and I do invest for the long term.
I think he needs to keep his day job. I was referred to as a dope, so I launched it back.
Re: investment choices
analyst DOD Thu Oct 16, 2008 5:53 PM
"I was referred to as a dope, so I launched it back. "
This is misleading. the nrc custodian was referring to a large group of people by behavior. You took it to him/her personally. There is a significant difference.
Re: investment choices
employee FED GOVT Wed Oct 29, 2008 11:29 AM
That was funny Program Specialist...
Moving Funds in TSP
CAS DOD Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:07 AM
While stationed in Germany last year and hearing of the UK government overtaking the first bank to fault, I moved all my funds to the G fund from the I fund where I had 80% of my TSP. When I moved out of the I fund it was almost $22 a share. What is it now $14. I don't think I will be in any fund other than the G since I am less tahn two years out from retiring. If I had a longer time to go I would definately be pouring money into the I, S and C funds right now. The object is to buy low and sell high. The stock market has about bottomed out IMHO.
ability to move money around funds
supervisor GSA Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:12 AM
We are each responsible for the success or failure of our 401K account. As our own personal financial manager we should have the ability to move our money around any of the G funds whenever we want. The premise that it is too costly or burdernsome on the TSP is bogus. Our money is at stake!
Re: ability to move money around funds
PROPULSION SPECIALIST AFMC Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:39 PM
I agree with you 100%.
You haven't said a thing
Engineer/Manager Dod Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:21 AM
The stock may go up. The stock market may go down.
Really!?!
I said in eleven words what took you several paragraphs. And neither of us said anything new.
TSP
Offer Investigator IRS Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:28 AM
I agree with you that no one knows what is going to happen. We have never experienced this. Our parents remember a similar time. As for me I moved into G in Feb. and am know moving 10% at a time back into C. We will see.
volatility
gs-2210 epa Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:30 AM
why doesn't uncle sam provide certified financial planners as parts of the HR teams, if he's going to shift the risk of caring for our retirement funds to us...?
Re: volatility
Diversity Manager DOL Wed Oct 15, 2008 2:55 PM
You already have that option, but you have to pay for it like everyone else. Is that the objection having to pay for it??
Re: volatility
Wkr Navy Fri Oct 17, 2008 7:36 AM
2210, so you want HR to provide financial advice? Is that so you can blame someone when you don't get what you want? I don't think that it is the responsibilty of HR or anyone else in Federal service to give you financial advice. Go pay for the service.
Re: volatility
analyst DOD Sat Oct 18, 2008 11:07 AM
gs2210, from your logic we have to assume that you also want finance personnel to give you HR advice.
Re: volatility
HR Officer U.S. Army Thu Oct 30, 2008 7:44 AM
Actually, the benefit that gs-2210 is referring is (providing free/subsidized access to financial planners) is becoming a common fringe benefit in corporate America. In the past, the company/employer invested money on behalf of the employees, using financial planner-type expertise to do so. Now, with the investment being made by the employee individually, the access to financial planning advice is lost. The trend in employee benefits has been to recognize that loss by the employee and restore the benefit by discounts prices at commercial financial planning services. No one is suggesting that the HR staff of the organization provide the advice (not part of our skill set), but instead that it be purchased from outside vendors.
The USG usually leads on benefits issues. In this case, it is falling behind.
IGNORANCE LOVES COMPANY
PROPULSION SPECIALIST AFMC Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:30 AM
I am not sure what employees don't understand about buy low sell high. The mindless drones we call employees are just like lemurs falling off a cliff. One does it so they all have to do it. I just don't get what is going through these employees minds. You have a stock in the I fund. It was around $30 a share. Now it is around $15 a share. Simple math I thought. $30 a share move into G fund. $15 a share move back into I fund. Doubled the profit. It doesn't matter if it sets in the G fund for a year. The G fund doesn't make much but you don't loose anything in it why you are waiting to put it back in at a very low buy in. I am sadened that employees can not grasp the concept.
Do your insulting, arrogant remarks make you feel superior and all better now? People make their own choices about their retirement funds, for different reasons. As of Monday the I fund was down almost 45%. What if I had all my retirement money invested in the I fund. And what if I was planning to retire at the end of this year. I wouldn't have much more than HALF of what I've saved and earned in a better market to retire on. How many years do you think it would take, once the market turns, to recoup huge losses? Is it hurting you personally in any way that these "mindless drones" are making different choices about their retirement funds than you are?
Re: IGNORANCE LOVES COMPANY
Supervisory IT Specialist DON Wed Oct 15, 2008 12:30 PM
The concept is simple. The execution has been proven to be impossible. Since we can not predict the future, how do you know you are buying and selling at the correct time?
Plus, by moving your money around a lot, you are missing out on big market upswings. Those upswings happen infrequently and only 2 or 3 times a year. If you miss them, you rate of return is cut drasticly.
Buy and hold is the only strategy that gets close to market rates. Thats one of the reasons that 95% off all actively traded funds don't match the market (index funds).
Re: IGNORANCE LOVES COMPANY
AUSA DOJ Wed Oct 15, 2008 1:25 PM
Here's the problem with your thinking. No one - and I mean no one - even those PhDs who study the markets full-time with the most sophisticated mathematical models can accurately and consistently predict when the markets will go up and down. A few can be lucky in a pick once or twice - but none - none will do it consistently over long periods of time. Think about it - if you could reliably market time the market's ups and downs you would have more money than God. Many try--all eventually fail. Man simply cannot predict the market direction reliably over extended periods of time. What to do? Dollar cost average and slowly adjust asset allocation to bonds ("G" and "F") - very slowly- as you get older. At age 65 you should stand put at a 40/60 stock/bond allocation for the rest of your life. This is simple and it works -- but it's not at all fansy. It's even boring but it works. Have 30+ working years - this approach will make you a multi-millionaire. Forget your market timing.
Re: IGNORANCE LOVES COMPANY
PROPULSION SPECIALIST AFMC Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:37 PM
It actualy makes a huge difference. The herd pushes all the money out of the stock market at a huge loss and that in turn leaves less money in the market for the investors to invest our money with. If employees have left their money in the I fund until it is to late then there is no reason to take it out now and put it back in when it is high again. $30 high-$15 low=$15 difference on the positive side. $15 low-$30=$15 diffenence on the negative side. I fund setting at $15 and employee was unlucky enough to have not wartched the market and taken it out at $30 a share, then why take it out of the I fund at $15 and put in the G fund for a certain loss to never go up any more than the value of a government bond.
There are many published magazines and newspapers that can be subsribed to that are usually correct to a certain percentage of what will happen within the next week or month. The good ones cost around $275 a year. Well worth it to be active in ones own retirement.
Re: IGNORANCE LOVES COMPANY
Supervisory IT Specialist DON Thu Oct 16, 2008 7:26 AM
So, there are magazines that hold the secret to the market (and unlimited wealth) for only $275 a year?
How come everyone is not using them? I mean, its free money, right? Guaranteed to win?
Re: IGNORANCE LOVES COMPANY
PROPULSION SPECIALIST AFMC Thu Oct 16, 2008 11:22 AM
Because employees are torn between buying a six pack and paying for their future.
MARKET DECLINE
CSR IRS Wed Oct 15, 2008 2:12 PM
thanks,mr. smith. steady advice in an unsteady time. i'm in the s fund and i'll be staying for a while, fighting my impulse to move with the herd. i'm betting my future that the american and world economies will recover. if not, i can always sell pencils on the corner!!!!
Interfund Transfer Limits Contribute to Shift
Professional Leg. Branch Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:39 PM
After the first 2 trades, TSP participants can only transfer into the G fund for the rest of the month. It was foreseeable that over time a larger percentage of funds would shift into the G fund regardless of market conditions.
Participants can no longer move back to the stock funds when they feel more secure about their investments and the markets. The Board has made what was a temporary shelter (G Fund) for some of us into a permanent home with this new policy
TSP - The most expensive 401K I know of
Alan in Colorado NSA Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:45 PM
Trades must be done by 12 noon and only two trades a month along with limited fund options make the TSP one of the most expensive 401K plans for contributers that I know of. Sure the fees are low but the lost opportunities to trade in a fast changing market cost members tens of thousands each in potential gains that could have been realized. Solution: I'm currently moving all my funds out of TSP into a Scottrade ROTH IRA as quickly as possible while taking full advantage of tax law in the process. Having a lower paper balance in this economic downturn will make that process even easier and faster. I feel sorry for the members who are stuck in TSP for many years under the current rules. What a terrible shame the TSP has become. I encourage younger members to only contribute up to their Agency's match and invest elsewhere so they can have real control of their investments.
Re: TSP - The most expensive 401K I know of
Wkr Navy Thu Oct 16, 2008 5:36 AM
You can stop your contributions, but you can't take out what funds you currently have in TSP. Correct?
Great Article
Retired Air force U.S Navy Wed Oct 15, 2008 7:24 PM
MR. Ralph Smith this is a great article; my sentiments exactly. I'm impressed......
Market Violatility and funds movement
Audit Manager Homeland Security Thu Oct 16, 2008 8:19 AM
While I understand what you and every other market analyst keeps saying about "riding it out" and having the wisdom to leave your money in the various stock funds, I am somewhat perplexed about the lack of guidance about not continuing to push money into these funds going forward. If people are nervous about riding the ups and downs, at least they can park their allocations going forward into the safety of the G fund and limit the bleeding to those funds still exposed to the volatility based on previous contributions at higher values. Why don't all the "experts" at least advise people about this opportunity??
Risk
rick DCMA Thu Oct 16, 2008 9:40 AM
Still all about risk and time. If you're retiring soon, you should have moved to safer investments long ago. If you have time and fear of loss isn't as big a factor as when you're nearing retirement , then shifting some to G isn't necessarily a bad deal but since nobody can predict what the market is doing in any 24 hr period, staying put has always outperformed constant shifting. This isn't the worst market we've ever had to deal with, 22% interest rate with 11% unemployment that we had in the 70's-80's was much worse. Right now we have a mass media group that reports no good news and refuses to see any good. Our unemployment rate, interest rate and ability to access cash are still positive indicators that the majority of the issue resides in the bigger institutions that took the chances with bad debt. Hang in there, it'll get better
Price per Share
Reconnaissance Maintenance Officer USSTRATCOM Thu Oct 16, 2008 10:31 AM
Does anyone remember what the initial cost per share was when the C, S, and I funds were introduced? Wasn't it $10?
Thanks,
reply to price per share
Retired USDA Thu Oct 16, 2008 12:53 PM
Yes, initial share prices were $10.
Market and Bond fund decline
Retired USDA Thu Oct 16, 2008 1:04 PM
You know that old saying, "WHEN STOCKS ARE HIGH, BONDS (F) DIE, WHEN STOCKS ARE LOW, BONDS GROW." This has NOT been the case in past 2-3 weeks. Stocks have plummeted & so have the bonds. I was making money in F & G fund for past few months, but when I realized F funds were also declining, decided to put all into G fund for awhile. Read in several financial newsletters earlier this year that 2008 & 2009 were going to be bad for stock market. I guess they were correct.
Going Going Gone!
ExCBP cbp Thu Oct 16, 2008 7:22 PM
Like the great Ronald Reagoon said,"Let them save for their own retirement". To bad I lost about a third of it this year. But like most people say, It sucks to be a fed!
Re: Going Going Gone!
HR advocate USG Wed Oct 22, 2008 9:06 AM
You be wrong, man, you be wrong!
Going Going Gone!
Test Control Officer Air Force Tue Oct 21, 2008 9:47 AM
SHAME ON YOU..ExCBP...!!!
How dare you state..."But like most people say, It sucks to be a fed!"
I was an active duty AF member for 11 yrs/4 months and now been in the Civil Service since 12 July 1988 and paid my POST 56 Mil Deposit. I'm sure you didn't realize that Active Duty Service members are also 'FEDS" not just us Civies!!!
I've had my allocation set up since June 2004 and I am not about to change anything with my TSP even though I may be offered an Optional Retirement @ VSIP in the next 2-3 years.
G-80%; C-5%; F-5%, I-5% & S-5%.
The computer system at TSP is allocating my distribution differently but IN MY FAVOR.
As of 20 Oct my Distribution is:
G - 94.40%; F - 1.73%; C - 1.29%, S-1.29% & I-1.25%
I'm going to just let the 'computer system' at TSP do it's work for me!!!!!!! I'm not going to worry a bit!!!!!
Robbie Sheehy
Sheppard AFB, TX
Moved before the herd.
ET USPS Wed Oct 22, 2008 3:30 AM
Thank God that I move all of my money to the G fund. I did this back in January before the bottom really fell out so at least I didn't lose a whole lot. I still have co-workers that have not adjusted their TSP fund and have lost quite a bit of the savings. I would rather make 2-3% in the G fund than lose 30+% in the F,C,S,I funds. Thank goodness my wife works for a financial planner that told her to tell me to bail out ASAP at least till the market stabalizes some what.
Wrong Move
HAS Dept. of Vet. Affairs Fri Oct 24, 2008 2:39 PM
I,like millions of other began moving money,but not before my initial loss.It was time to put the ole finger in the dike to stop the flow.
C Fund
Senior Manager IRS Thu Dec 4, 2008 6:02 AM
I have left 1/3 of my retriement in the C Fund, (1/3 in G and 1/3 in F). Now that we are in the spoke "Recession", and I continue to have a lost (37.5%) in the F fund should I move my funds to the G or F fund, before I loose even more retirment monies?
I do plan to retire in 4 years.
TSP
USPS
Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:22 AM
None of this will matter in the slightest. If we end up with a President Obama, redistribution of the wealth will cause massive inflation to where we will all need wheel barrows to haul around currency.
The only steady employment will be the Bureau of Printing and Engraving.
Good luck to us all!
Re: TSP
Dept of Homeland Security
Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:36 AM
The media is trying to get everyone to think Obama has the election all tied up with a bow on top. Let's show them they are wrong and vote McCain and pretty Sarah Palin in. She's a lot easier on the eyes than Biden !! Ha ha
Re: TSP
USFS
Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:00 AM
I would have lost more but that's all the money I
DoD
Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:27 AM
I know, that's a 'steal' from someone else, but it's exactly how I feel, and since I'm about to retire, I'm looking to not lose my shirt, skirt, or shoes before I leave. There is wisdom in what the author says, but I'm not young enough to want to risk any more loss at this point in my life. My TSP is not going to be a monthly part of my retirement, at least until I'm 70-1/2, or unless some disaster occurs. But I want to know there is SOMETHING STILL THERE! Besides, I moved my funds months ago, and plan to watch and when I feel more confident, I'll move some funds back into stocks to grow my money. To each his/her own.
Following the Herd?
Dept of Homeland Security
Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:29 AM
Regarding the article about employees transferring their TSP funds to the safety of the C fund I add this for your consideration. Warren Buffet, the wealthiest man in America (he just passed Bill Gates for this honor) is BUYING millions of dollars of stocks for his mutual fund offerings. By the way you need a minimum of $1 million to invest in his funds. He is buying when the market is down, buying stocks on sale, similiar to buying steak on sale at the grocery store. There is nothing inherently wrong with the stocks, the market jitters and slides will eventually correct itself. Smart money stands firm. Fearful weak investors sell! Don't follow the pack. Be a leader and stay in your I, S, C and Lifecycle funds. I did !
Re: Following the Herd?
HF
Wed Oct 15, 2008 2:34 PM
Go ahead keep your stocks and hold down the fort for the team! Keep working until your 80's. haha
Re: Following the Herd?
SSA
Thu Oct 16, 2008 9:27 AM
For the record, Berkshire Hathaway is not a mutual fund, it's a holding company. Also, with a sharebuilder account, you can buy partial "B" shares for as little as $100 a month. There is no minimun $1M buy in. However, you can not buy partial "A" shares.
I saw the light w/Buffet years ago and have been buying patial shares on an auto monthly basis.
For all of you who pulled out of the C fund, you've officially locked in your losses. Next step is to buy high when all the smoke clears.
Returns
Dept of Homeland Security
Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:33 AM
The reason you get such high returns on the C, I, S, etc. funds is because you are willing to take the risks. In certain times, like now, it will drop down, but in other times, it will go up. No risk = mediocre returns. The higher the risk you are willing to take, the corresponding higher returns you may accept. Come on people, this is not rocket science.
If you are not willing to take the risks, the common wisdom is, if you are 5 years or less to retirement, you should minimize your exposure to stocks, but NOT in the middle of a BEAR market.
Also, everyone should Always remain in stocks for the inflation protection. Without stocks, inflation will eat you alive when it rears its ugly head again...
Re: Returns
VHA
Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:01 AM
Sure you can buy your shares, like you buy your meat, on sale - but if you expect beef prices to keep declining, do you stock up now or later?
You haven't lost it til you sell it
NARA
Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:37 AM
I know everyone's situation is different. I am 8 years from retirement. I was stressing over all the money I had 'lost' since January. Then, when I heard last week that GM was trading at 1950's prices, I realized I hadn't lost anything yet. I still own the shares I've had all along. At that point, I decided to switch a portion of my future contributions - 100% of which I had going to the G fund since June - to stocks. This is the time to buy - if your situation warrants it.
Re: You haven't lost it til you sell it
HF
Wed Oct 15, 2008 2:38 PM
Good Advice
ACF
Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:39 AM
Warren Buffett says "Buy when everyone is selling and sell when everyone is buying." He's the self made billionaire.
If you take advice from someone, at least take advice from someone that is successful in what they are giving the advice about.
I love the herd mentality, it helps me ultimately make more money.
You who are in the G fund, at the very least you should allow the money coming out of your paycheck to be going into the C,S, & I funds. The funds are 40% off right now. Look up the term dollar cost averaging. If it goes down even more, every 2 wks. your money from your paycheck will continue to buy it down. You cannot time a market. At least take advantage of the discount while it is in the range of bottom. If it continues for a year or so at this level, you will have continued to add for when it goes up. Good Luck!!!!
Re: Good Advice
USCG
Thu Oct 16, 2008 11:18 AM
What is your tolerance
USCG, Dept of Homeland Security
Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:44 AM
There is no potential wrong thing to do. It is whatever your comfort and tolerance is for the swings. If you are close to retirement and feel safe moving to G...why not. That is basically what the L funds do for you. If you are a thrill seaker and can handle this unusual drop in the market stay the course and hope for the best. It is not a great feeling watch tens of thousands of dollars disappear in a few months. How long will it take to get it back......probably years.
Market Loss and the Sleep Factor
Corps of Engineers
Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:44 AM
Everyone has to have an idea of their own investment strategy, whether it's a herd follower or agressive moves in a down market. I'm a believer in the strategy that works best is the one that lets you sleep at night.
I went to all G fund two years ago
GSA
Wed Oct 15, 2008 9:51 AM
I sleep a lot better. My peace of mind is worth more than all the gold in the world. If you have a calm outlook good health will follow. Simplify your life--quit chasing the false hope your riches will bring you happiness. Simplify your expenses--stop buying useless possessions to justify your thinking you are better than your fellow man. We all will pass away one day and you can't take it with you. By the by I noticed the last time the "I" fund was at 13 and change was 2004. You are in for a long and stressful wait.
Re: I went to all G fund two years ago
ACF
Wed Oct 15, 2008 1:16 PM
There is a difference in chasing and informed investing.
Risk tolerance and time
DCMA
Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:16 AM
All investing should be done based on risk tolerance and time. Since I'm a contrarian and don't plan on retiring for 10 years, I see this as an opportunity to minimize my investment cash investment and maximize the potential for return. Since no-one can accurately predict the bottom of the current market or when stocks will once again move upward, taking your money off the table at this point just means a loss of potential income when the market begins to turn. Now is a great time to buy since the stocks are reduced in value, and if you have time, the history has been a greater piece of return for those on the leading edge of recovery. Since the market will not return fully while Hussein is in office (his policies are anti-market), we can look for the market upswing sometime in the later half of his administration or the first half of Sarah's.
Re: Risk tolerance and time
ACF
Wed Oct 15, 2008 1:20 PM
Shhhh!!!!!!! Don't tell them though, when they artifically drive the price down it adds money to our pockets.
In the G Fund, but Not Following the Herd
US Forest Service
Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:16 AM
... and I kind of resent the implication that if you moved to the G fund you're just a dumb animal following the herd. If I were in my twenties, or even thirties, maybe even forties and had years to go to retirement, I'd stick it out in some of the riskier funds. But I'm not. Because I started my career after I raised a family, I've already worked past the usual retirement age, and may have to work even longer than I anticipated.
I don't follow the market closely. What I hear about it is whatever is on the news. And the market experts on the news I listen to (PBS) have said repeatedly, if you're young and have years to recoup your losses, stay the course. But if you're close to retirement, you shouldn't be in today's market if you can get out of it. I didn't make my decision to move to the G fund based on this, however. It just reinforced my decision.
Re: In the G Fund, but Not Following the Herd
AF
Thu Oct 16, 2008 9:48 AM
TSP Gardening
Air Force
Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:22 AM
The only thing more wrong are the experts advising people to "wait it out". Get out of things that lose money when they start losing money, not after you have lost so much it hurts! You don't stay in a boat when it sinks.
The inflation and deflation cycle is managed by the financial interests (FRB!) to make sure they don't lose money. It is cyclic, but irregular. You must watch the economy like the weather and seasons and your savings like a garden. Don't leave your flowers outside during a freeze!
Calculate the time and money you spend on your vacation, sports, hobbies, and recreation and put 10% towards learning about the economy and financial markets.
I have been in G Fund since early in the year. I made one transfer to F for a few days. My account value is the highest it has ever been. I will go back into the other funds when the weather is past.
investment choices
custodian
Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:32 AM
Where are all of the dopes who were complaining about the frequent transfer in/out of funds or that investing was intended to be long term. It would be nice to have that feature now wouldn't it?
Re: investment choices
ACF
Wed Oct 15, 2008 1:25 PM
Investing is long term
Trading is short term
I see you are a custodian, I'm sure you are good at your job.
Re: investment choices
tso
Wed Oct 15, 2008 7:22 PM
What's that got to do with anything?
Re: investment choices
DOD
Wed Oct 15, 2008 8:57 PM
Re: investment choices
ACF
Thu Oct 16, 2008 7:42 AM
I think he needs to keep his day job. I was referred to as a dope, so I launched it back.
Re: investment choices
DOD
Thu Oct 16, 2008 5:53 PM
This is misleading. the nrc custodian was referring to a large group of people by behavior. You took it to him/her personally. There is a significant difference.
Re: investment choices
FED GOVT
Wed Oct 29, 2008 11:29 AM
Moving Funds in TSP
DOD
Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:07 AM
While stationed in Germany last year and hearing of the UK government overtaking the first bank to fault, I moved all my funds to the G fund from the I fund where I had 80% of my TSP. When I moved out of the I fund it was almost $22 a share. What is it now $14. I don't think I will be in any fund other than the G since I am less tahn two years out from retiring. If I had a longer time to go I would definately be pouring money into the I, S and C funds right now. The object is to buy low and sell high. The stock market has about bottomed out IMHO.
ability to move money around funds
GSA
Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:12 AM
We are each responsible for the success or failure of our 401K account. As our own personal financial manager we should have the ability to move our money around any of the G funds whenever we want. The premise that it is too costly or burdernsome on the TSP is bogus. Our money is at stake!
Re: ability to move money around funds
AFMC
Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:39 PM
You haven't said a thing
Dod
Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:21 AM
The stock may go up. The stock market may go down.
Really!?!
I said in eleven words what took you several paragraphs. And neither of us said anything new.
TSP
IRS
Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:28 AM
I agree with you that no one knows what is going to happen. We have never experienced this. Our parents remember a similar time. As for me I moved into G in Feb. and am know moving 10% at a time back into C. We will see.
volatility
epa
Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:30 AM
why doesn't uncle sam provide certified financial planners as parts of the HR teams, if he's going to shift the risk of caring for our retirement funds to us...?
Re: volatility
DOL
Wed Oct 15, 2008 2:55 PM
Re: volatility
Navy
Fri Oct 17, 2008 7:36 AM
Re: volatility
DOD
Sat Oct 18, 2008 11:07 AM
Re: volatility
U.S. Army
Thu Oct 30, 2008 7:44 AM
The USG usually leads on benefits issues. In this case, it is falling behind.
IGNORANCE LOVES COMPANY
AFMC
Wed Oct 15, 2008 11:30 AM
I am not sure what employees don't understand about buy low sell high. The mindless drones we call employees are just like lemurs falling off a cliff. One does it so they all have to do it. I just don't get what is going through these employees minds. You have a stock in the I fund. It was around $30 a share. Now it is around $15 a share. Simple math I thought. $30 a share move into G fund. $15 a share move back into I fund. Doubled the profit. It doesn't matter if it sets in the G fund for a year. The G fund doesn't make much but you don't loose anything in it why you are waiting to put it back in at a very low buy in. I am sadened that employees can not grasp the concept.
Re: IGNORANCE LOVES COMPANY
Mindless Drone Protection Agency
Wed Oct 15, 2008 12:01 PM
Re: IGNORANCE LOVES COMPANY
DON
Wed Oct 15, 2008 12:30 PM
Plus, by moving your money around a lot, you are missing out on big market upswings. Those upswings happen infrequently and only 2 or 3 times a year. If you miss them, you rate of return is cut drasticly.
Buy and hold is the only strategy that gets close to market rates. Thats one of the reasons that 95% off all actively traded funds don't match the market (index funds).
Re: IGNORANCE LOVES COMPANY
DOJ
Wed Oct 15, 2008 1:25 PM
Re: IGNORANCE LOVES COMPANY
AFMC
Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:37 PM
There are many published magazines and newspapers that can be subsribed to that are usually correct to a certain percentage of what will happen within the next week or month. The good ones cost around $275 a year. Well worth it to be active in ones own retirement.
Re: IGNORANCE LOVES COMPANY
DON
Thu Oct 16, 2008 7:26 AM
How come everyone is not using them? I mean, its free money, right? Guaranteed to win?
Re: IGNORANCE LOVES COMPANY
AFMC
Thu Oct 16, 2008 11:22 AM
MARKET DECLINE
IRS
Wed Oct 15, 2008 2:12 PM
thanks,mr. smith. steady advice in an unsteady time. i'm in the s fund and i'll be staying for a while, fighting my impulse to move with the herd. i'm betting my future that the american and world economies will recover. if not, i can always sell pencils on the corner!!!!
Interfund Transfer Limits Contribute to Shift
Leg. Branch
Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:39 PM
After the first 2 trades, TSP participants can only transfer into the G fund for the rest of the month. It was foreseeable that over time a larger percentage of funds would shift into the G fund regardless of market conditions.
Participants can no longer move back to the stock funds when they feel more secure about their investments and the markets. The Board has made what was a temporary shelter (G Fund) for some of us into a permanent home with this new policy
TSP - The most expensive 401K I know of
NSA
Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:45 PM
Trades must be done by 12 noon and only two trades a month along with limited fund options make the TSP one of the most expensive 401K plans for contributers that I know of. Sure the fees are low but the lost opportunities to trade in a fast changing market cost members tens of thousands each in potential gains that could have been realized. Solution: I'm currently moving all my funds out of TSP into a Scottrade ROTH IRA as quickly as possible while taking full advantage of tax law in the process. Having a lower paper balance in this economic downturn will make that process even easier and faster. I feel sorry for the members who are stuck in TSP for many years under the current rules. What a terrible shame the TSP has become. I encourage younger members to only contribute up to their Agency's match and invest elsewhere so they can have real control of their investments.
Re: TSP - The most expensive 401K I know of
Navy
Thu Oct 16, 2008 5:36 AM
Great Article
U.S Navy
Wed Oct 15, 2008 7:24 PM
MR. Ralph Smith this is a great article; my sentiments exactly. I'm impressed......
Market Violatility and funds movement
Homeland Security
Thu Oct 16, 2008 8:19 AM
While I understand what you and every other market analyst keeps saying about "riding it out" and having the wisdom to leave your money in the various stock funds, I am somewhat perplexed about the lack of guidance about not continuing to push money into these funds going forward. If people are nervous about riding the ups and downs, at least they can park their allocations going forward into the safety of the G fund and limit the bleeding to those funds still exposed to the volatility based on previous contributions at higher values. Why don't all the "experts" at least advise people about this opportunity??
Risk
DCMA
Thu Oct 16, 2008 9:40 AM
Still all about risk and time. If you're retiring soon, you should have moved to safer investments long ago. If you have time and fear of loss isn't as big a factor as when you're nearing retirement , then shifting some to G isn't necessarily a bad deal but since nobody can predict what the market is doing in any 24 hr period, staying put has always outperformed constant shifting. This isn't the worst market we've ever had to deal with, 22% interest rate with 11% unemployment that we had in the 70's-80's was much worse. Right now we have a mass media group that reports no good news and refuses to see any good. Our unemployment rate, interest rate and ability to access cash are still positive indicators that the majority of the issue resides in the bigger institutions that took the chances with bad debt. Hang in there, it'll get better
Price per Share
USSTRATCOM
Thu Oct 16, 2008 10:31 AM
Does anyone remember what the initial cost per share was when the C, S, and I funds were introduced? Wasn't it $10?
Thanks,
reply to price per share
USDA
Thu Oct 16, 2008 12:53 PM
Yes, initial share prices were $10.
Market and Bond fund decline
USDA
Thu Oct 16, 2008 1:04 PM
You know that old saying, "WHEN STOCKS ARE HIGH, BONDS (F) DIE, WHEN STOCKS ARE LOW, BONDS GROW." This has NOT been the case in past 2-3 weeks. Stocks have plummeted & so have the bonds. I was making money in F & G fund for past few months, but when I realized F funds were also declining, decided to put all into G fund for awhile. Read in several financial newsletters earlier this year that 2008 & 2009 were going to be bad for stock market. I guess they were correct.
Going Going Gone!
cbp
Thu Oct 16, 2008 7:22 PM
Like the great Ronald Reagoon said,"Let them save for their own retirement". To bad I lost about a third of it this year. But like most people say, It sucks to be a fed!
Re: Going Going Gone!
USG
Wed Oct 22, 2008 9:06 AM
Going Going Gone!
Air Force
Tue Oct 21, 2008 9:47 AM
SHAME ON YOU..ExCBP...!!!
How dare you state..."But like most people say, It sucks to be a fed!"
I was an active duty AF member for 11 yrs/4 months and now been in the Civil Service since 12 July 1988 and paid my POST 56 Mil Deposit. I'm sure you didn't realize that Active Duty Service members are also 'FEDS" not just us Civies!!!
I've had my allocation set up since June 2004 and I am not about to change anything with my TSP even though I may be offered an Optional Retirement @ VSIP in the next 2-3 years.
G-80%; C-5%; F-5%, I-5% & S-5%.
The computer system at TSP is allocating my distribution differently but IN MY FAVOR.
As of 20 Oct my Distribution is:
G - 94.40%; F - 1.73%; C - 1.29%, S-1.29% & I-1.25%
I'm going to just let the 'computer system' at TSP do it's work for me!!!!!!! I'm not going to worry a bit!!!!!
Robbie Sheehy
Sheppard AFB, TX
Moved before the herd.
USPS
Wed Oct 22, 2008 3:30 AM
Thank God that I move all of my money to the G fund. I did this back in January before the bottom really fell out so at least I didn't lose a whole lot. I still have co-workers that have not adjusted their TSP fund and have lost quite a bit of the savings. I would rather make 2-3% in the G fund than lose 30+% in the F,C,S,I funds. Thank goodness my wife works for a financial planner that told her to tell me to bail out ASAP at least till the market stabalizes some what.
Wrong Move
Dept. of Vet. Affairs
Fri Oct 24, 2008 2:39 PM
I,like millions of other began moving money,but not before my initial loss.It was time to put the ole finger in the dike to stop the flow.
C Fund
IRS
Thu Dec 4, 2008 6:02 AM
I have left 1/3 of my retriement in the C Fund, (1/3 in G and 1/3 in F). Now that we are in the spoke "Recession", and I continue to have a lost (37.5%) in the F fund should I move my funds to the G or F fund, before I loose even more retirment monies?
I do plan to retire in 4 years.