It has not, and still has a ways to go (historically speaking)
G Fund or C Fund?
Materials Handler Dept. of Interior Bureau of Land Management Mon Oct 27, 2008 9:54 AM
As a late in life Federal Employee, I am taking a risk and putting all ($50,000) of my TSP into the C Fund. I believe the stock market gain in my last 3 years will be more profitable than in the G fund. By luck, I bought on the day the stock market was at it's lowest so far.
BEAR MARKET
Sys Engr FAA Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:10 AM
From Jonathan Burton's article, CBS Marketwatch, 10/26/08:
"Unloading stocks in bear-market rallies will only lock in your losses. You lose sight of the fact that time in the market, not timing the market, determines financial success. Investment horizons that were considered in years become measured in minutes, pushing you into panicked decisions you wouldn't make in a calmer situation. "Investors think 'I'll get out now and then I'll get back in when this market has bottomed,'" said Scott Kays, an investment adviser in Atlanta. "They're fooling themselves," he added. "You're changing your strategic allocation because of a change in your circumstances. That's market timing, and I've never seen anybody do that consistently."
Re: BEAR MARKET
I am From Missouri DoD Mon Oct 27, 2008 11:50 AM
There is a new herd mentality. It looks like the new herd mentality is to follow the advisors who almost unanomously unnanosmoly, unaanamosly, er 100% say stick it out. Maybe the herd is wrong again by sticking it out. I have read that the true bottom will not be reached until those who have been sticking it out give up in desparation, disparation, desperation...er futility. I don't see that we have reached that point yet--not even close--in large part because of the "stick it out" advisors.
buying stocks
IT SPEC DOE Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:36 AM
I made my second move for the month of October from G into the stock market this morning.
I just went from 60% stocks to 70% stocks. I'm going to keep doing this while the market is taking.
I have ten years before I will start tapping into the TSP funds, I'm 52 and plan to retire at 56 and postpone the pension until I'm 60.
I also have a large emergency fund outside of the retirement accounts. With the FERS pension and SS plus a Government job and a sizeable about of money in I bonds and money market accounts I think I can take on the risk.
Noboody really knows what the bottom will be
HR Specialist NASA Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:48 AM
I was once tempted to jump into the market and buy some Lucent stock, because some market turmoil and earnings disappointments had caused the market price to drop substantially. Money magazine included a quote in an article on "bargain" stocks for value investors, saying "At only $40 per share, Lucent is tantalizingly cheap." They were sure the bottom had been reached. Fortunately, I procrastinated and "failed" to take advantage of the bargain, or I would have lost 90 percent of my money.
The TSP account is not "fun money" for FERs investors... thanks to the change from CSRS, the money in the TSP will mean the difference between a fairly comfortable retirement and a miserable one full of choices between paying for prescriptions or the heating bill.
Nobody gets rich on the G fund, but they don't go broke there, either. Over a 30 to 40 year career, the G fund's ability to avoid the dips can look very good, compared to the roller coaster ride the others provide.
Be CAREFUL!
Good luck
Mechanical Technitian NIST Mon Oct 27, 2008 11:22 AM
Telling people to stay in the market, and limiting our moves last October was horrible. I got out last January, and am looking for my place to get back in. The Market will tell us when the time is right. Just look at were the money is going. Good luck.
Develop a phase in plan
Retired DOC Mon Oct 27, 2008 12:32 PM
It is correct that you can't time the market. What you need is a plan to gently phase into the market. A shift in increments over time. For this the TSP trading limits can be your friend by helping you stay on your plan. You have to be ready to accept some decline in the near term with the expectation that you will be in the fund when the turnaround happens and the procrastinators pile into stocks.
In the near term, volatility is the plan of the day. I expect a nasty decline if Obama wins as people adjust to his planned tax and spend regime as well as the forecast "crisis" created to test him. Outside of politics, this holiday season looks to be dismal for retail.
Re: Develop a phase in plan
Tomato Grower Oaklandon Road Tue Oct 28, 2008 7:00 AM
The market has already discounted Obama's election. It is forward looking not backward or focused on the present. Part of this large drop--not all--is the Obama factor.
School of Hard Money/Knocks
engineer Air Force Mon Oct 27, 2008 1:34 PM
Which is the better way to do it? Figure out what is happening and prepare for it, or let it happen and then look around and try to recover. Your losses are locked in regardless of what you do or don't do. The question now is will you lose more, stay the same, or gain by doing nothing or doing something? How much more will you lose before you change?
We are no longer condemned to the old techniques of buy and hold because of the information revolution. But you have to find the information and understand it. You need to daily check the news, weather, sports, and stock market.
The magnitude of these events is easily comparable to the stock market crash of 1929. Our hope is that we understand the economic dynamics better and the impact will be less severe, but we are taking a major unprecedented risk in the amount of global debt thrown at the problem. The debtor is servant to the lender. Who is our new master?
Has Your TSP Hit Bottom Yet?
Operations Officer USAF Mon Oct 27, 2008 7:15 PM
I have 10 years until I can retire from civil service. I have recently stop funding my L2030 fund and am now funding 100% in the S fund until it reaches about $24 again.
Re: Has Your TSP Hit Bottom Yet?
Tomato Grower Oaklandon Road Tue Oct 28, 2008 7:02 AM
Hey Bud--
You are defeating the purpose of those type of funds. Those are set it and forget it funds. When you chose them you shoulda knowed.
Re: Has Your TSP Hit Bottom Yet?
Letter Carrier USPS Wed Dec 24, 2008 3:15 AM
1. You should be in 2020 (in theory) considering you have 10 years until retirement. Instead of 2030.
2. Now is the time to be in G Fund. S Fund strategy is not good for 2008/2009. Buy low and sell high. The problem is market volatility. If I understand you correctly you want to buy low and sell high but this market has peaks and valleys. It will not work.
Everyone
Supervisor MEDCOM Tue Oct 28, 2008 10:06 AM
I plan, currently, to retire under CSRS May 2010 with 40 plus years. The only reason I have TSP is for taxes - lowering my income. I have seen my 10% contribution eacy pay period vanishing and my balance dwindling. Is it really worth my money to keep TSP?????? Mucho thanks.
My Decision.....
UR/QM MEDVAMC Tue Oct 28, 2008 10:57 AM
I try to ask myself, "What is going to hurt me more, jumping back into stocks and them going down even more, or sitting tight for now and missing out on a possible rebound...?" I easily decided to stay put, safely in the G fund!
Better advice this time
Electronics Engineer FCC Thu Oct 30, 2008 11:21 AM
This is a better article by Mr. Smith that his previous ones. He has pointed out some general truths. The most important one is that you can't know when the market bottom was until after the fact. What he didn't say is that then, when the market bottom is clearly in your rear view mirror, and the trend is upward, is when you should buy. But not now. Not yet. I see so many people posting the idea that, hey, the TSP stock funds are really low now, they are on sale, they are cheap, they couldn't possibly go any lower than this, etc etc. Folks were posting that kind of stuff last August and now where are they? Fact is, the trends (long-term [meaning years] and short term [meaning weeks]) are still downward, as of today, and until that changes, folks should stay in the G Fund. It's not exciting (the G Fund), but an investor just can't afford to take a huge hit when there is a good alternative.
when to buy back into the market
Electrician DOD Sat Nov 1, 2008 12:44 PM
What makes buying back into the market more difficult for us government employees is you don't know when the "buy" will actually take place. It takes "up to 2 days" before the "buy" is completed. In that amount of time, the market can move substantualy one way or the other, definately altering the direction for your portfolio.
I would like to see a system implemented that would have the "buy" take place in a matter of minutes, rather than days!!
Re: when to buy back into the market
engineer DoD Wed Nov 5, 2008 8:51 PM
I put in a request to transfer fund from C to G before 12:00 pm ET, only 1 percent of the fund was executed on the same day, the rest was executed on the next day which the stock market went down dramatically. Why was my fund split and executed in two different days? TSP transfer does not work in our favor.
TSP
souvanno US Army Thu Nov 6, 2008 12:56 PM
I am glad, I transfered my balance to G, and F in Feb-2008, I did not lost much, and I still maintain my monthly allocation and adjusted to more on C, S than I fund. And now I has been slowly transfering from G back to C, S, and I. Am I doing it rigth?
Re: TSP
logistician USA Sat Nov 8, 2008 2:05 AM
Any body, is this the right time to start transfering money slowly from G to C,S,I?
Re: TSP
IT DoD Tue Nov 11, 2008 3:25 PM
The unemployment rate is increasing and the stock market can't rally on good news. This suggests that it will probably be a while before the market bottom. Who knows how low the stock market goes. I would buy on the way up not on the way down. Cash is king for now.
Has Your TSP Hit Bottom Yet
District Director US DOL Fri Nov 21, 2008 9:18 AM
The stock market is a leading indicator. The misery is yet to come. As company's respond to their depressed stock prices by laying off workers the economy will get worse. Add to that the tight credit market and we have a recipe for distaster. I think this is going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better. We have not seen the bottom yet. Greed, deregulation and supply-side economics have sunk our ship.
Bottoming Out? Not Yet
Realty Specialist USACE Wed Dec 3, 2008 10:29 AM
Cramer provided bottom indicators on Mad Money in case you missed them (this is not an endorsement of him/his show - I just happen to agree with him): There are three primary indicators, which although lag somewhat are actually predictors because of human psychology (i.e. it takes time to reverse trends caused by fear). These indicators are: 1) the overall economy starts to improve; 2) Company invenoties start to be reduced; and 3) Company earnings forcasts become achievable (i.e. are reduced to the point that they are realistic given the economy). NONE of these 3 things have happened yet. There will be/have been false starts which temporarily bump up the markets; but underlying global trends/conditions remain downward.
Timing is everything and it can be done.
Letter Carrier USPS Wed Dec 24, 2008 2:57 AM
This can be proved on two different levels.
1. Personal. Five figure gain by switching C&S Nov 2008 thru the first week in December.
2. TSP limitation of 2 fund moves a month. (excluding G fund moves) Since May 08.
The market indicators for the volatility we are now facing were available. You just had to be able to read them. G Fund since June 08.
No
FAA
Mon Oct 27, 2008 9:21 AM
It has not, and still has a ways to go (historically speaking)
G Fund or C Fund?
Dept. of Interior Bureau of Land Management
Mon Oct 27, 2008 9:54 AM
As a late in life Federal Employee, I am taking a risk and putting all ($50,000) of my TSP into the C Fund. I believe the stock market gain in my last 3 years will be more profitable than in the G fund. By luck, I bought on the day the stock market was at it's lowest so far.
BEAR MARKET
FAA
Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:10 AM
From Jonathan Burton's article, CBS Marketwatch, 10/26/08:
"Unloading stocks in bear-market rallies will only lock in your losses. You lose sight of the fact that time in the market, not timing the market, determines financial success. Investment horizons that were considered in years become measured in minutes, pushing you into panicked decisions you wouldn't make in a calmer situation. "Investors think 'I'll get out now and then I'll get back in when this market has bottomed,'" said Scott Kays, an investment adviser in Atlanta. "They're fooling themselves," he added. "You're changing your strategic allocation because of a change in your circumstances. That's market timing, and I've never seen anybody do that consistently."
Re: BEAR MARKET
DoD
Mon Oct 27, 2008 11:50 AM
buying stocks
DOE
Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:36 AM
I made my second move for the month of October from G into the stock market this morning.
I just went from 60% stocks to 70% stocks. I'm going to keep doing this while the market is taking.
I have ten years before I will start tapping into the TSP funds, I'm 52 and plan to retire at 56 and postpone the pension until I'm 60.
I also have a large emergency fund outside of the retirement accounts. With the FERS pension and SS plus a Government job and a sizeable about of money in I bonds and money market accounts I think I can take on the risk.
Noboody really knows what the bottom will be
NASA
Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:48 AM
I was once tempted to jump into the market and buy some Lucent stock, because some market turmoil and earnings disappointments had caused the market price to drop substantially. Money magazine included a quote in an article on "bargain" stocks for value investors, saying "At only $40 per share, Lucent is tantalizingly cheap." They were sure the bottom had been reached. Fortunately, I procrastinated and "failed" to take advantage of the bargain, or I would have lost 90 percent of my money.
The TSP account is not "fun money" for FERs investors... thanks to the change from CSRS, the money in the TSP will mean the difference between a fairly comfortable retirement and a miserable one full of choices between paying for prescriptions or the heating bill.
Nobody gets rich on the G fund, but they don't go broke there, either. Over a 30 to 40 year career, the G fund's ability to avoid the dips can look very good, compared to the roller coaster ride the others provide.
Be CAREFUL!
Good luck
NIST
Mon Oct 27, 2008 11:22 AM
Telling people to stay in the market, and limiting our moves last October was horrible. I got out last January, and am looking for my place to get back in. The Market will tell us when the time is right. Just look at were the money is going. Good luck.
Develop a phase in plan
DOC
Mon Oct 27, 2008 12:32 PM
It is correct that you can't time the market. What you need is a plan to gently phase into the market. A shift in increments over time. For this the TSP trading limits can be your friend by helping you stay on your plan. You have to be ready to accept some decline in the near term with the expectation that you will be in the fund when the turnaround happens and the procrastinators pile into stocks.
In the near term, volatility is the plan of the day. I expect a nasty decline if Obama wins as people adjust to his planned tax and spend regime as well as the forecast "crisis" created to test him. Outside of politics, this holiday season looks to be dismal for retail.
Re: Develop a phase in plan
Oaklandon Road
Tue Oct 28, 2008 7:00 AM
School of Hard Money/Knocks
Air Force
Mon Oct 27, 2008 1:34 PM
Which is the better way to do it? Figure out what is happening and prepare for it, or let it happen and then look around and try to recover. Your losses are locked in regardless of what you do or don't do. The question now is will you lose more, stay the same, or gain by doing nothing or doing something? How much more will you lose before you change?
We are no longer condemned to the old techniques of buy and hold because of the information revolution. But you have to find the information and understand it. You need to daily check the news, weather, sports, and stock market.
The magnitude of these events is easily comparable to the stock market crash of 1929. Our hope is that we understand the economic dynamics better and the impact will be less severe, but we are taking a major unprecedented risk in the amount of global debt thrown at the problem. The debtor is servant to the lender. Who is our new master?
Has Your TSP Hit Bottom Yet?
USAF
Mon Oct 27, 2008 7:15 PM
I have 10 years until I can retire from civil service. I have recently stop funding my L2030 fund and am now funding 100% in the S fund until it reaches about $24 again.
Re: Has Your TSP Hit Bottom Yet?
Oaklandon Road
Tue Oct 28, 2008 7:02 AM
You are defeating the purpose of those type of funds. Those are set it and forget it funds. When you chose them you shoulda knowed.
Re: Has Your TSP Hit Bottom Yet?
USPS
Wed Dec 24, 2008 3:15 AM
2. Now is the time to be in G Fund. S Fund strategy is not good for 2008/2009. Buy low and sell high. The problem is market volatility. If I understand you correctly you want to buy low and sell high but this market has peaks and valleys. It will not work.
Everyone
MEDCOM
Tue Oct 28, 2008 10:06 AM
I plan, currently, to retire under CSRS May 2010 with 40 plus years. The only reason I have TSP is for taxes - lowering my income. I have seen my 10% contribution eacy pay period vanishing and my balance dwindling. Is it really worth my money to keep TSP?????? Mucho thanks.
My Decision.....
MEDVAMC
Tue Oct 28, 2008 10:57 AM
I try to ask myself, "What is going to hurt me more, jumping back into stocks and them going down even more, or sitting tight for now and missing out on a possible rebound...?" I easily decided to stay put, safely in the G fund!
Better advice this time
FCC
Thu Oct 30, 2008 11:21 AM
This is a better article by Mr. Smith that his previous ones. He has pointed out some general truths. The most important one is that you can't know when the market bottom was until after the fact. What he didn't say is that then, when the market bottom is clearly in your rear view mirror, and the trend is upward, is when you should buy. But not now. Not yet. I see so many people posting the idea that, hey, the TSP stock funds are really low now, they are on sale, they are cheap, they couldn't possibly go any lower than this, etc etc. Folks were posting that kind of stuff last August and now where are they? Fact is, the trends (long-term [meaning years] and short term [meaning weeks]) are still downward, as of today, and until that changes, folks should stay in the G Fund. It's not exciting (the G Fund), but an investor just can't afford to take a huge hit when there is a good alternative.
when to buy back into the market
DOD
Sat Nov 1, 2008 12:44 PM
What makes buying back into the market more difficult for us government employees is you don't know when the "buy" will actually take place. It takes "up to 2 days" before the "buy" is completed. In that amount of time, the market can move substantualy one way or the other, definately altering the direction for your portfolio.
I would like to see a system implemented that would have the "buy" take place in a matter of minutes, rather than days!!
Re: when to buy back into the market
DoD
Wed Nov 5, 2008 8:51 PM
TSP
US Army
Thu Nov 6, 2008 12:56 PM
I am glad, I transfered my balance to G, and F in Feb-2008, I did not lost much, and I still maintain my monthly allocation and adjusted to more on C, S than I fund. And now I has been slowly transfering from G back to C, S, and I. Am I doing it rigth?
Re: TSP
USA
Sat Nov 8, 2008 2:05 AM
Re: TSP
DoD
Tue Nov 11, 2008 3:25 PM
Has Your TSP Hit Bottom Yet
US DOL
Fri Nov 21, 2008 9:18 AM
The stock market is a leading indicator. The misery is yet to come. As company's respond to their depressed stock prices by laying off workers the economy will get worse. Add to that the tight credit market and we have a recipe for distaster. I think this is going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better. We have not seen the bottom yet. Greed, deregulation and supply-side economics have sunk our ship.
Bottoming Out? Not Yet
USACE
Wed Dec 3, 2008 10:29 AM
Cramer provided bottom indicators on Mad Money in case you missed them (this is not an endorsement of him/his show - I just happen to agree with him): There are three primary indicators, which although lag somewhat are actually predictors because of human psychology (i.e. it takes time to reverse trends caused by fear). These indicators are: 1) the overall economy starts to improve; 2) Company invenoties start to be reduced; and 3) Company earnings forcasts become achievable (i.e. are reduced to the point that they are realistic given the economy). NONE of these 3 things have happened yet. There will be/have been false starts which temporarily bump up the markets; but underlying global trends/conditions remain downward.
Timing is everything and it can be done.
USPS
Wed Dec 24, 2008 2:57 AM
This can be proved on two different levels.
1. Personal. Five figure gain by switching C&S Nov 2008 thru the first week in December.
2. TSP limitation of 2 fund moves a month. (excluding G fund moves) Since May 08.
The market indicators for the volatility we are now facing were available. You just had to be able to read them. G Fund since June 08.