Human Resources Specialist Air Force Fri Nov 21, 2008 8:41 AM
Regardles whether the market goes down further, now is the time to jump back in if you are investing for the long term (5+ years). You are guaranteed to make money, considering any 5 year period in market history, and especially considering any 10 year period in market history.
Re: Buy Buy Buy
Accountant, Retired, GS 14 DOE, Albuquerque Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:12 AM
You are not guanteed to make money in a 5 year period or 10 year when you account for inflation. When inflation is accounted for, the S&P is back to 1996 levels. 12 years. Also over a 15, and 20 year period you would have made more in 30 year bonds. Generalizations are general izations. The US economy is mature and will only grow very slowly and so will the stock market. In the long run the market can't go up more than the economy
Investing in stocks
Purchasing Agent Forest Service Fri Nov 21, 2008 9:30 AM
Only a fool invests their retirement in the stock market. Paying off your house and other debts is a better investment.
Re: Investing in stocks
richdor US Postal Service Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:34 AM
What century are you living in? The market is cyclical. It goes up and it goes down. You have to pay attention to it and the economic environment not just here but around the world. Am I a fool because I invested in the C,S, and I funds and doubled my portfolio in 2003-2007? I knew that the melt down here in the US over the bad loans and mortgage crisis would create a tidal wave of lost capital so I pulled the plug and went for safety in May. Please educate yourself about the market and investments. There is so much opportunity right now to purchase stocks at bargain prices. This is the time to make money!
Re: Investing in stocks
Accountant, Retired, GS 14 DOE, Albuquerque Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:55 AM
After inflation houses appreciate 2% a year on average. How do you get equity out of your house without paying huge fees and interest rates. Reverse motgages are expensive. A home is a home and not an investment as many people have found out. Stocks return about 5 percent after inflation over the long run (40 years) and bonds 3% after inflation. Real estate is a mediocre investment in the long run. It just seems to be a lot if you finance 95,90 or 80% of the cost. After payning interest the real rate of return on real estate is negative
Back to the Future?
Civil Engineer USACE Fri Nov 21, 2008 9:41 AM
Back to the Future? It’s because the FTRIB has been lying to you about the true costs of IFT’s and their stupid guidance.
Did anyone take the time to read the FTRIB Sept Minutes? No of course not, because if you did, then you would realize they are lying to you!
In them, Mr. Long stated “ Even though interfund transfers have decreased this year, the decrease has not led to significant savings in processing costs because most interfund transfers are implemented via the web and does not require manual intervention”
Of course we use the web and we tried to explain that reducing the IFT’s would not lower costs, but so many of you just blindly followed Smitty, anf the FTRIB, who are being controlled by Barclays. Haven’t you seen the news on Barclays needing money. It’s because they have been gambling with ours.
Even though they imposed limits on trading- for the reason that "It will save money", it has proven to be false a LIE!. No money was saved, excepr maybe for barclay. But I bet if you look at your funds, you have lost a lot of money due to these limited IFT’s. Buy and Hold is dead, CNBC even did a show on it. Well as usual Smitty is still drinking the FTRIB/Barclays Kool-aid. And the imposition limited IFT’s has also CAUSED costs to rise, and you are drinking the Kool-aid also.
Another highlight- the Board plans to spend millions on postage, on redesigning the website, and keeping the TSP website separate from the FRTIB website. I thought you would appreciate that. At a time where 99% of us are all in the internet- it is more important to them to spend millions on DVDs and postage, rather than making the film available on the net, and saving millions. At a time when the took our trading ability away, so they could save money, which, by the way, it does not.
Think about it. It’s all in the minutes, but Long and his band of thugs don’t expect you to take the time or interest to read the minutes, so they have a free hand to do as they wish with YOUR money.
I’m saddened by the lack of interest taken by fellow feds. We all have the same interest at heart and that is to increase our retirement money. Smitty, the FTRIB and Barclays aren’t even Federal employees, so they have no vested interest in what’s best for us.
Their Buy and Hold Strategy is only going to cause us to work longer, because if you B&H in this market environment, you are getting killed and will have to work years to get your losses back. Educate yourself on how the market works, cause our Board sure doesn’t have the faintest idea how it works.
This reduction in our retirement funds 50% max could’ve been easily avoided, if the board knew what they were doing.
An Engineer
Re: Back to the Future?
IT Project Manager State Fri Nov 21, 2008 12:06 PM
I agree that "buy and hold" should be taken with a grain of salt. I don't agree on the comments regarding the cost of trading limits. I have an IRA I started before taking part in the TSP and the cost of moving funds around is substanital and I rarely do it. Transfers in the IRA are not only not free, but have significant costs.
I moved my TSP out of stocks and into G and F last January - a move that was more lucky than smart. That move has saved me from most of the 2008 losses and I only needed one move to do it, not the 20 free moves I could have made since January under current rules. You don't need the ability to perform constant transfer gyrations to intelligently manage your funds.
Re: Back to the Future?
Not The Smartest Guy In The Room Military Sat Nov 22, 2008 12:42 AM
Buy and hold is far from dead and one does not need to sit behind a desk every day, trading his/her TSP Funds daily, to get ahead in this market.
Like the other commenter, I put myself %100 into the G Fund last January because it obviously(!) wasn't going to be a profitable year anywhere else. In one trade I avoided the %50-ish losses (so far) this year, how is that not getting ahead?
Can't wait till this thing hits bottom so I can buy back into the C, S and I Funds and really get ahead.
FERS
Fed Employee DHS Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:06 AM
I suspect that all the people who transferred from CSRS to FERS (i.e. bought OPM's pitch that FERS would result in a better retirement) are having a fit.
I was automatically moved to FERS in 1987 (less than 5 years service) and wasn't happy about it then...now I am really unhappy.
The current TSP issue does end all discussion of a retirement tsunami.
And then if social security doesn't pan out....
A one legged stool (FERS) instead of the three (FERS/TSP/FICA) that we were expecting.
Will anyone under FERS ever be able to retire comfortably? Who knows.
Re: FERS
Accountant, Retired, GS 14 DOE, Albuquerque Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:24 AM
thank god less than 1% switched. If I did, i would still be working. lol
Re: FERS
analyst government Fri Nov 21, 2008 11:02 AM
I don't understand why you want to throw out the baby with the bathwater! Unlike traditional 401K's in private industry, TSP contributors can move their money to the G fund at any time and suffer no losses. Stop whining and become more educated!!!
Re: FERS
Smuck Air Force Fri Nov 21, 2008 2:08 PM
No, I won't be able to retire under FERS. Being on the tail end of the baby boomers, I never thought I would be able to. This just confirms it.
My bigest mistake was trying out the L fund in Nov 2007. It's just headed south ever since. The worst part is the daily rebalancing just inserts more money into the market to be lost.
So, what do you do. Work till you drop, I guess, and hope that your health holds out till then.
Re: FERS
AUSA DOJ Fri Nov 21, 2008 2:27 PM
Any chance we could all be put into CSRS? Would Congress ever think that FERS Feds need a larger defined benefits retirement package- greater than the mere 1% per year of the high three average retirement annuity (plus CPI minus 1% per year when inflation reaches 3% or more). Is this even possible? Or are most Americans so badly off that such a benefits plus-up for FERS is simply not possible. Any thoughts?
More Financial Trouble Ahead
scientist bor Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:28 AM
The credit cards haven't collapsed yet... all unsecured loans. Many people are living on their credit cards. Unemployment and the deflation that is occurring in the current economy will put many more people into financial straits and the credit card companies will not be able to squeeze blood out of the turnips.
Buying stocks in the TSP
CONTACT SUPERVISOR IRS Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:32 AM
I read where you state that we should buy while the stocks are low. I have 10 tens before retirement and have left my funds in the 2020 l fund, with about 3% in the 2040 L fund. In general terms how would I go about doing that?
Bail out
Accountant Air force Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:41 AM
Public is waiting for congress to enact the Birk Plan which helps the consumers not the businesses up front.
Businesses and mortgage companies can profit from this plan and it also stimulates the consumers better than the peanuts congress and the President has been throwing at them.
Capitulation?
Billy Shears Apple Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:54 AM
The pundits are saying we won't see a bottom until we see capitulation. So my request to all you TSP investors who still have C, I and S funds is : Capitulate already so we can reach bottom.
I chuckle when I hear the gold commercial. The narrator says: "You will never see the government being asked to bail out gold." True enough. It's also true that you can guarantee yourself a risk free, tax free investment of 6+ % by paying off your mortgage and freeing yourself of that monthly payment. Do what you wish with that monthly bonus. Spend it or invest it. Gold perhaps?
I'd like to write more but there are people pounding on my door seeking autographs..
Let's do the Dead Cat Bounce!
Nameless, Faceless Nobody DOD Fri Nov 21, 2008 11:18 AM
Things will be troubled for at least another year. With all the hoopla and constant talking about lack of confidence will create more lack of confidence. There is money, but no one with it is gonna lighten up and use it. With a credit score in the 700's not upside down in my mortgage, and not carrying a lot of consumer credit lines and what I have at a zero balance...I was denied a $500 amex. Go figure!
There will be up and down movement in the markets. Bounce, bounce, bounce!
Congress will do precisely the wrong things to try and fix the economy thereby dragging out the recession/depression even longer.
Has anyone even thought about what bringing home all those wonderful reservist and national guard soliders will do? We wrecked the economy while they were gone so they will not have soldier pay or their old jobs!
It is gonna get worse before it is better.
Market Bottom
Environmental Specialist USPS Fri Nov 21, 2008 12:01 PM
Misery trickle down probably has a long way to go. 2009 could be a long difficult road. However, as bad as it is, it is cyclical. "Hope springs eternal."
Retirement Investments in stocks
retired asst. district mgr. enforement USDA,FSIS Fri Nov 21, 2008 1:06 PM
My wife and I have been federal retirees now for almost ten years. When we retired we left our our money in the "C" fund. After athe presnt administarion came on board we decided that this was to risky and rolled over our funds into a more secure retirement program. I greatful we are that we did so considering what has happened the with the money market. The thing that makes us wonder now is how many younger people that might have done what Bush wanted people to do to invest their social security in the stock market would consider that a secure way to prepare for the future when they retire. Its scary what happened to the people that might have done so.
About to retire
Program Specialist VHA Fri Nov 21, 2008 1:08 PM
Well I am past retirement age and was waiting for the annuity to go up. Guess this is not going to happen for a long time. I did see the devastating drop in stock starting to plunge and moved my stocks into the G account. However, I have mutual funds that have lost 1/3 of their value.
Being retirement age I am trying to play safe and save what money is left from the plunge.
TSP Board Strategy of Investing
physical scientist DOI Fri Nov 21, 2008 2:16 PM
The TSP Board's strategy of buy and hold and no trading has led the unwitting federal employees into a failed approach to investing. This marks the end of the buy and hold mindless approach to investing. There is no excuse for not being actively involved in one's investments. I encourage federal employees to write their Congressional representatives and demand a major modification to the construct of the TSP and a replacement of the Board. amen!
Back to the future...
Civil Servant VA Fri Nov 21, 2008 2:34 PM
I'm part of what would have been called the "retirement tsunami." The old "buy and hold" strategy hasn't worked and I can't see how it will at this point. Are we suppose to "hold" until every last penny invested is gone?
With 32 years in so far I'll stick around for a while. Maybe another 32 years the way things are going and I might get my losses back...but I doubt it.
Back to the Future For Your TSP Funds
Civil Engineer VHA Fri Nov 21, 2008 5:00 PM
You don't want to miss that rebound point! Ever drop a ball of lead - not much rebound. I suspect in this market that you'll be able to back in at the rebound point for quite a while - this economy isn't going anywhere until the housing market recovers
The article assumes that you didn't actively manage your investment. That you don't do your own research and just "go with the flow". It was pretty clear to me that here wasn't anything much holding this market up when I went 100% inot the G fund last November. Heaven knows if I could see it, it had to have been pretty obvious!
Risk avoider
Short-timer Labor Fri Nov 21, 2008 7:12 PM
I never thought I would see times like these. There is a lesson in there for all of us: investing involves real risk. Every penney you put in the "market" funds may yield a greater return than the sure thing fund, however, your funds may also vapoize. I still believe its worth the risk but I am being forced to adjust my time lines. This is not what I wanted to do, but what I am forced to do. I am much more humble than I was a year ago.
So How's That Buy and Hold Thing Working???
Manager DOI Sat Nov 22, 2008 12:48 AM
I NEVER bought into the "buy and hold" crap, and that's just what it is! What has happened over the last year proves it, but unlike every other time since 1980 when the market had a dramatic sell-off it came back and made new highs in 1-2 years, it will take WAY MORE than two years before we see new market highs this time, more like 5-10 yeas. Significant damage HAS BEEN DONE to the global markets.
I don't advocate jumping in and out on a regular basis either. But as is widely "preached" that the average person can't "time" the market IS NOT true either!!! There are many "free" sources to stay informed about the markets via the internet and media. It was obvious since Oct. 2007 something was "rotten" in the markets, and we had several warning signs starting in spring and summer 2008, way before the worst of the sell-off began, all signals to get OUT of stocks. In my IRA I was "short" Rydex 2 X inverse funds, making 2% gain for each 1% loss in the S&P and safely in the G Fund.
Re: So How's That Buy and Hold Thing Working???
Analyst dod Sat Nov 22, 2008 9:12 AM
"I NEVER bought into the "buy and hold" crap, and that's just what it is! What has happened over the last year proves it, but unlike every other time since 1980 when the market had a dramatic sell-off it came back and made new highs in 1-2 years, it will take WAY MORE than two years before we see new market highs this time, more like 5-10 yeas. "
This is an emotional response to an intellectual situation. Most of those who have been bitten by the buy and hold concept have been bitten because they were using it wrong, not because the concept itself is flawed.
btw, some experts say it will take 1-2 years to recover. Some experts say 5. Some experts say something different yet. How do you know which experts are right when they say different things? The obvious conclusion is that many experts are wrong since their forecasts and predictions are all over the map. It's not wise to time the market when a great deal of information available to time the market is suspect.
Investments
Fed Worker DoD Sat Nov 22, 2008 8:28 AM
The market will reach bottom when it falls within a reasonable Price/Earnings ratio. Having placed the nest egg in the G fund in Oct 07, I am buying S and I funds as the government is headed into a bigger debt position so the return on Treasuries may be headed further downward. If you have a 10 to 30 year time horizon then stocks are still a very good bet on new contributions.
Buy and Hope
Electronic Tech USPS Sat Nov 22, 2008 9:05 AM
Thanks for making me a buy and hope TSP police. Just thanks!
A Modified Buy And Hold Strategy...
App/Db Programmer USMC Sat Nov 22, 2008 11:37 AM
Like some here, I don't think it was rocket science to 'predict' a market correction late last year.
Real estate froth, credit card junk mail, refinance offers, trick loans, energy cost inflation, and financial pundits singing operatic songs of “this time it’s different” all pointed to a market top. Time to move some assets from stocks to bonds and, ahem, Social Security Lock Box Notes.
For those that moved 100% into the G and F funds, get to predicting that other half of market timing!!!
If you have 100% in the G your first two month return will be 0.67%. In 2003 the first two months return for the C Fund was 13%, the S Fund as 18%, the I Fund was 16%. You experienced market timers (with limited trading capability) will have missed half the annual growth of the stock funds by missing two months of the recovery.
So, my recommendation is to not ‘buy and hold and ignore and forget’, but to have a few asset allocations that you can maneuver through. Don’t trade often.
Death of buy and hold
Engineer DOD Sun Nov 23, 2008 2:53 PM
Look for the Dow Jones to reach in the 6000's before rising from the ashes at a haphazard rate (too much value destruction of this magnitude will create less rick tolerances for at least a decade). Also the companies that rise from these ashes may not be the same ones who went head first into the abysis. Do not be sheep or lemmings. Do not listen to even the comments that are directed towards you from this author. Most of you are bobbing your head up and down as this false god speaks without doing the proper research. Panic and fear create losses and opportunities. What happened in the past may not be true of will happen today. Even the last FED chief did not realize the magnitue of our crooked government sleeping in bed with the crooked CEO's of wallstreet. Our government looked the other way as loop holes were found to get around regulations. Bad mortgages were sold as prime beef and unspectig investors from Brussels to Ontario bought the junk.
IFT Limitations
SQUALEBEAR Bureau of Prisons Mon Nov 24, 2008 2:20 AM
On the FRTIB website there's a ton of information which concerns the actual costs of frequent trading. Since April 1st, 2008, limits have been imposed and costs have skyrocketed. I've read mostly all the responses and couldn't help but be amused that some have thanked the FRTIB for protecting the TSP Participant. When they should be actualy questioning the facts and figures. Oops, I forgot. These are the participants who don't care to check their monthly TSP Statements either. I can tell each and everyone of you that the FRTIB cost me gains that I would have received without the limits that where imposed on us. I tracked the decisions I would have made vs. the decisions I was forced to make. In February of 2008, I was warned to stop such "insidious behavior". This warning came before the policy even made it to the Federal Registry. Beforehand, it was my choice without worries of retaliation. They hit me with Snail Mail Restrictions soon thereafter. Food for thought my fellow FEDS.
I doubt it will change your attitude but at least try to approach it with an open mind.
Re: IFT Limitations
Civil Engineer DOD Mon Nov 24, 2008 9:27 AM
Yeah, Look who it's writtten by, the FTRIB mouthpiece. lol Take the time and make the effort to read the monthly minutes, the truth is there, not someone else's thoughts.
I'm Done
Supervisor MEDCOM Mon Nov 24, 2008 10:04 AM
No more - I quit. I don't need TSP, under CSRS. I just closed out my TSP - lost over $5,000 since Jul. I am taking my money and running.
Re: I'm Done
Diversity Manager DOL Mon Nov 24, 2008 7:29 PM
Good for you the government needs the taxes smart move...
TSP
DOI employee BLM Mon Nov 24, 2008 11:19 AM
There are posters in our building that we should stay with the TSP for the long haul. I don't have a long-haul time left unless I want to work till I am 70.
Panic - Market Up 12% in two days...
Application/Db Programmer USMC Mon Nov 24, 2008 5:20 PM
Maybe, just maybe...
Markets move quickly at the beginning of a cycle - whether a downturn or an upturn.
With a 50+% decline in the S&P500 this year do you think we are topping out or bottoming out...
I still don't want to place all my eggs in a fragile basket - but, how about some. For me 50% lets me sleep at night. Holds back some potential losses while giving me a decent percentage of growth when it hits. You don't have to be all-in or all-out in your retirement funds.
TPS Trading
Technician cdc Mon Mar 23, 2009 9:18 PM
Yea, we were put in this new retirement system for one reason to save the gov. money. As soon as we began to learn the system, make trades and make money for our retirement they yanked it from us. 4 to 6 moves a month would have been reasonable and if you want to make more moves then you would have to pay for it from your funds. Hey but this is too logical so I wonder was it legal to change the rules after 16+ years? After all we signed up under one set of rules.
Buy Buy Buy
Air Force
Fri Nov 21, 2008 8:41 AM
Regardles whether the market goes down further, now is the time to jump back in if you are investing for the long term (5+ years). You are guaranteed to make money, considering any 5 year period in market history, and especially considering any 10 year period in market history.
Re: Buy Buy Buy
DOE, Albuquerque
Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:12 AM
Investing in stocks
Forest Service
Fri Nov 21, 2008 9:30 AM
Only a fool invests their retirement in the stock market. Paying off your house and other debts is a better investment.
Re: Investing in stocks
US Postal Service
Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:34 AM
Re: Investing in stocks
DOE, Albuquerque
Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:55 AM
Back to the Future?
USACE
Fri Nov 21, 2008 9:41 AM
Back to the Future? It’s because the FTRIB has been lying to you about the true costs of IFT’s and their stupid guidance.
Did anyone take the time to read the FTRIB Sept Minutes? No of course not, because if you did, then you would realize they are lying to you!
In them, Mr. Long stated “ Even though interfund transfers have decreased this year, the decrease has not led to significant savings in processing costs because most interfund transfers are implemented via the web and does not require manual intervention”
Of course we use the web and we tried to explain that reducing the IFT’s would not lower costs, but so many of you just blindly followed Smitty, anf the FTRIB, who are being controlled by Barclays. Haven’t you seen the news on Barclays needing money. It’s because they have been gambling with ours.
Even though they imposed limits on trading- for the reason that "It will save money", it has proven to be false a LIE!. No money was saved, excepr maybe for barclay. But I bet if you look at your funds, you have lost a lot of money due to these limited IFT’s. Buy and Hold is dead, CNBC even did a show on it. Well as usual Smitty is still drinking the FTRIB/Barclays Kool-aid. And the imposition limited IFT’s has also CAUSED costs to rise, and you are drinking the Kool-aid also.
Another highlight- the Board plans to spend millions on postage, on redesigning the website, and keeping the TSP website separate from the FRTIB website. I thought you would appreciate that. At a time where 99% of us are all in the internet- it is more important to them to spend millions on DVDs and postage, rather than making the film available on the net, and saving millions. At a time when the took our trading ability away, so they could save money, which, by the way, it does not.
Think about it. It’s all in the minutes, but Long and his band of thugs don’t expect you to take the time or interest to read the minutes, so they have a free hand to do as they wish with YOUR money.
I’m saddened by the lack of interest taken by fellow feds. We all have the same interest at heart and that is to increase our retirement money. Smitty, the FTRIB and Barclays aren’t even Federal employees, so they have no vested interest in what’s best for us.
Their Buy and Hold Strategy is only going to cause us to work longer, because if you B&H in this market environment, you are getting killed and will have to work years to get your losses back. Educate yourself on how the market works, cause our Board sure doesn’t have the faintest idea how it works.
This reduction in our retirement funds 50% max could’ve been easily avoided, if the board knew what they were doing.
An Engineer
Re: Back to the Future?
State
Fri Nov 21, 2008 12:06 PM
I moved my TSP out of stocks and into G and F last January - a move that was more lucky than smart. That move has saved me from most of the 2008 losses and I only needed one move to do it, not the 20 free moves I could have made since January under current rules. You don't need the ability to perform constant transfer gyrations to intelligently manage your funds.
Re: Back to the Future?
Military
Sat Nov 22, 2008 12:42 AM
Like the other commenter, I put myself %100 into the G Fund last January because it obviously(!) wasn't going to be a profitable year anywhere else. In one trade I avoided the %50-ish losses (so far) this year, how is that not getting ahead?
Can't wait till this thing hits bottom so I can buy back into the C, S and I Funds and really get ahead.
FERS
DHS
Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:06 AM
I suspect that all the people who transferred from CSRS to FERS (i.e. bought OPM's pitch that FERS would result in a better retirement) are having a fit.
I was automatically moved to FERS in 1987 (less than 5 years service) and wasn't happy about it then...now I am really unhappy.
The current TSP issue does end all discussion of a retirement tsunami.
And then if social security doesn't pan out....
A one legged stool (FERS) instead of the three (FERS/TSP/FICA) that we were expecting.
Will anyone under FERS ever be able to retire comfortably? Who knows.
Re: FERS
DOE, Albuquerque
Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:24 AM
Re: FERS
government
Fri Nov 21, 2008 11:02 AM
Re: FERS
Air Force
Fri Nov 21, 2008 2:08 PM
My bigest mistake was trying out the L fund in Nov 2007. It's just headed south ever since. The worst part is the daily rebalancing just inserts more money into the market to be lost.
So, what do you do. Work till you drop, I guess, and hope that your health holds out till then.
Re: FERS
DOJ
Fri Nov 21, 2008 2:27 PM
More Financial Trouble Ahead
bor
Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:28 AM
The credit cards haven't collapsed yet... all unsecured loans. Many people are living on their credit cards. Unemployment and the deflation that is occurring in the current economy will put many more people into financial straits and the credit card companies will not be able to squeeze blood out of the turnips.
Buying stocks in the TSP
IRS
Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:32 AM
I read where you state that we should buy while the stocks are low. I have 10 tens before retirement and have left my funds in the 2020 l fund, with about 3% in the 2040 L fund. In general terms how would I go about doing that?
Bail out
Air force
Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:41 AM
Public is waiting for congress to enact the Birk Plan which helps the consumers not the businesses up front.
Businesses and mortgage companies can profit from this plan and it also stimulates the consumers better than the peanuts congress and the President has been throwing at them.
Capitulation?
Apple
Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:54 AM
The pundits are saying we won't see a bottom until we see capitulation. So my request to all you TSP investors who still have C, I and S funds is : Capitulate already so we can reach bottom.
I chuckle when I hear the gold commercial. The narrator says: "You will never see the government being asked to bail out gold." True enough. It's also true that you can guarantee yourself a risk free, tax free investment of 6+ % by paying off your mortgage and freeing yourself of that monthly payment. Do what you wish with that monthly bonus. Spend it or invest it. Gold perhaps?
I'd like to write more but there are people pounding on my door seeking autographs..
Let's do the Dead Cat Bounce!
DOD
Fri Nov 21, 2008 11:18 AM
Things will be troubled for at least another year. With all the hoopla and constant talking about lack of confidence will create more lack of confidence. There is money, but no one with it is gonna lighten up and use it. With a credit score in the 700's not upside down in my mortgage, and not carrying a lot of consumer credit lines and what I have at a zero balance...I was denied a $500 amex. Go figure!
There will be up and down movement in the markets. Bounce, bounce, bounce!
Congress will do precisely the wrong things to try and fix the economy thereby dragging out the recession/depression even longer.
Has anyone even thought about what bringing home all those wonderful reservist and national guard soliders will do? We wrecked the economy while they were gone so they will not have soldier pay or their old jobs!
It is gonna get worse before it is better.
Market Bottom
USPS
Fri Nov 21, 2008 12:01 PM
Misery trickle down probably has a long way to go. 2009 could be a long difficult road. However, as bad as it is, it is cyclical. "Hope springs eternal."
Retirement Investments in stocks
USDA,FSIS
Fri Nov 21, 2008 1:06 PM
My wife and I have been federal retirees now for almost ten years. When we retired we left our our money in the "C" fund. After athe presnt administarion came on board we decided that this was to risky and rolled over our funds into a more secure retirement program. I greatful we are that we did so considering what has happened the with the money market. The thing that makes us wonder now is how many younger people that might have done what Bush wanted people to do to invest their social security in the stock market would consider that a secure way to prepare for the future when they retire. Its scary what happened to the people that might have done so.
About to retire
VHA
Fri Nov 21, 2008 1:08 PM
Well I am past retirement age and was waiting for the annuity to go up. Guess this is not going to happen for a long time. I did see the devastating drop in stock starting to plunge and moved my stocks into the G account. However, I have mutual funds that have lost 1/3 of their value.
Being retirement age I am trying to play safe and save what money is left from the plunge.
TSP Board Strategy of Investing
DOI
Fri Nov 21, 2008 2:16 PM
The TSP Board's strategy of buy and hold and no trading has led the unwitting federal employees into a failed approach to investing. This marks the end of the buy and hold mindless approach to investing. There is no excuse for not being actively involved in one's investments. I encourage federal employees to write their Congressional representatives and demand a major modification to the construct of the TSP and a replacement of the Board. amen!
Back to the future...
VA
Fri Nov 21, 2008 2:34 PM
I'm part of what would have been called the "retirement tsunami." The old "buy and hold" strategy hasn't worked and I can't see how it will at this point. Are we suppose to "hold" until every last penny invested is gone?
With 32 years in so far I'll stick around for a while. Maybe another 32 years the way things are going and I might get my losses back...but I doubt it.
Back to the Future For Your TSP Funds
VHA
Fri Nov 21, 2008 5:00 PM
You don't want to miss that rebound point! Ever drop a ball of lead - not much rebound. I suspect in this market that you'll be able to back in at the rebound point for quite a while - this economy isn't going anywhere until the housing market recovers
The article assumes that you didn't actively manage your investment. That you don't do your own research and just "go with the flow". It was pretty clear to me that here wasn't anything much holding this market up when I went 100% inot the G fund last November. Heaven knows if I could see it, it had to have been pretty obvious!
Risk avoider
Labor
Fri Nov 21, 2008 7:12 PM
I never thought I would see times like these. There is a lesson in there for all of us: investing involves real risk. Every penney you put in the "market" funds may yield a greater return than the sure thing fund, however, your funds may also vapoize. I still believe its worth the risk but I am being forced to adjust my time lines. This is not what I wanted to do, but what I am forced to do. I am much more humble than I was a year ago.
So How's That Buy and Hold Thing Working???
DOI
Sat Nov 22, 2008 12:48 AM
I NEVER bought into the "buy and hold" crap, and that's just what it is! What has happened over the last year proves it, but unlike every other time since 1980 when the market had a dramatic sell-off it came back and made new highs in 1-2 years, it will take WAY MORE than two years before we see new market highs this time, more like 5-10 yeas. Significant damage HAS BEEN DONE to the global markets.
I don't advocate jumping in and out on a regular basis either. But as is widely "preached" that the average person can't "time" the market IS NOT true either!!! There are many "free" sources to stay informed about the markets via the internet and media. It was obvious since Oct. 2007 something was "rotten" in the markets, and we had several warning signs starting in spring and summer 2008, way before the worst of the sell-off began, all signals to get OUT of stocks. In my IRA I was "short" Rydex 2 X inverse funds, making 2% gain for each 1% loss in the S&P and safely in the G Fund.
Re: So How's That Buy and Hold Thing Working???
dod
Sat Nov 22, 2008 9:12 AM
This is an emotional response to an intellectual situation. Most of those who have been bitten by the buy and hold concept have been bitten because they were using it wrong, not because the concept itself is flawed.
btw, some experts say it will take 1-2 years to recover. Some experts say 5. Some experts say something different yet. How do you know which experts are right when they say different things? The obvious conclusion is that many experts are wrong since their forecasts and predictions are all over the map. It's not wise to time the market when a great deal of information available to time the market is suspect.
Investments
DoD
Sat Nov 22, 2008 8:28 AM
The market will reach bottom when it falls within a reasonable Price/Earnings ratio. Having placed the nest egg in the G fund in Oct 07, I am buying S and I funds as the government is headed into a bigger debt position so the return on Treasuries may be headed further downward. If you have a 10 to 30 year time horizon then stocks are still a very good bet on new contributions.
Buy and Hope
USPS
Sat Nov 22, 2008 9:05 AM
Thanks for making me a buy and hope TSP police. Just thanks!
A Modified Buy And Hold Strategy...
USMC
Sat Nov 22, 2008 11:37 AM
Like some here, I don't think it was rocket science to 'predict' a market correction late last year.
Real estate froth, credit card junk mail, refinance offers, trick loans, energy cost inflation, and financial pundits singing operatic songs of “this time it’s different” all pointed to a market top. Time to move some assets from stocks to bonds and, ahem, Social Security Lock Box Notes.
For those that moved 100% into the G and F funds, get to predicting that other half of market timing!!!
If you have 100% in the G your first two month return will be 0.67%. In 2003 the first two months return for the C Fund was 13%, the S Fund as 18%, the I Fund was 16%. You experienced market timers (with limited trading capability) will have missed half the annual growth of the stock funds by missing two months of the recovery.
So, my recommendation is to not ‘buy and hold and ignore and forget’, but to have a few asset allocations that you can maneuver through. Don’t trade often.
Death of buy and hold
DOD
Sun Nov 23, 2008 2:53 PM
Look for the Dow Jones to reach in the 6000's before rising from the ashes at a haphazard rate (too much value destruction of this magnitude will create less rick tolerances for at least a decade). Also the companies that rise from these ashes may not be the same ones who went head first into the abysis. Do not be sheep or lemmings. Do not listen to even the comments that are directed towards you from this author. Most of you are bobbing your head up and down as this false god speaks without doing the proper research. Panic and fear create losses and opportunities. What happened in the past may not be true of will happen today. Even the last FED chief did not realize the magnitue of our crooked government sleeping in bed with the crooked CEO's of wallstreet. Our government looked the other way as loop holes were found to get around regulations. Bad mortgages were sold as prime beef and unspectig investors from Brussels to Ontario bought the junk.
IFT Limitations
Bureau of Prisons
Mon Nov 24, 2008 2:20 AM
On the FRTIB website there's a ton of information which concerns the actual costs of frequent trading. Since April 1st, 2008, limits have been imposed and costs have skyrocketed. I've read mostly all the responses and couldn't help but be amused that some have thanked the FRTIB for protecting the TSP Participant. When they should be actualy questioning the facts and figures. Oops, I forgot. These are the participants who don't care to check their monthly TSP Statements either. I can tell each and everyone of you that the FRTIB cost me gains that I would have received without the limits that where imposed on us. I tracked the decisions I would have made vs. the decisions I was forced to make. In February of 2008, I was warned to stop such "insidious behavior". This warning came before the policy even made it to the Federal Registry. Beforehand, it was my choice without worries of retaliation. They hit me with Snail Mail Restrictions soon thereafter. Food for thought my fellow FEDS.
Re: IFT Limitations
Dod Agency
Mon Nov 24, 2008 7:07 AM
http://www.fedsmith.com/article/1743/
I doubt it will change your attitude but at least try to approach it with an open mind.
Re: IFT Limitations
DOD
Mon Nov 24, 2008 9:27 AM
Yeah, Look who it's writtten by, the FTRIB mouthpiece. lol Take the time and make the effort to read the monthly minutes, the truth is there, not someone else's thoughts.
I'm Done
MEDCOM
Mon Nov 24, 2008 10:04 AM
No more - I quit. I don't need TSP, under CSRS. I just closed out my TSP - lost over $5,000 since Jul. I am taking my money and running.
Re: I'm Done
DOL
Mon Nov 24, 2008 7:29 PM
TSP
BLM
Mon Nov 24, 2008 11:19 AM
There are posters in our building that we should stay with the TSP for the long haul. I don't have a long-haul time left unless I want to work till I am 70.
Panic - Market Up 12% in two days...
USMC
Mon Nov 24, 2008 5:20 PM
Maybe, just maybe...
Markets move quickly at the beginning of a cycle - whether a downturn or an upturn.
With a 50+% decline in the S&P500 this year do you think we are topping out or bottoming out...
I still don't want to place all my eggs in a fragile basket - but, how about some. For me 50% lets me sleep at night. Holds back some potential losses while giving me a decent percentage of growth when it hits. You don't have to be all-in or all-out in your retirement funds.
TPS Trading
cdc
Mon Mar 23, 2009 9:18 PM
Yea, we were put in this new retirement system for one reason to save the gov. money. As soon as we began to learn the system, make trades and make money for our retirement they yanked it from us. 4 to 6 moves a month would have been reasonable and if you want to make more moves then you would have to pay for it from your funds. Hey but this is too logical so I wonder was it legal to change the rules after 16+ years? After all we signed up under one set of rules.