Unkle Sam Independent Agency Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:45 AM
I have to chuckle every time you start dispensing investment advice since you usually don't know what you are talking about. The old adage that "you can't time the market" will hold true even in this bear market. The conventional wisdom is to continue funding your TSP account at the same levels, according to your same plan, since you are now buying shares of stock on sale. When the rally comes (and it will eventually come), you will realize a sizable profit, while thise who shifted everything to the G fund will be left holding the bag.
Re: Your Doomsday Prophecy
manager Dod Agency Tue Nov 25, 2008 11:10 AM
As I understand your comment, you don't like the free articles we see on this site giving out information that many of us would not ever see because you tell the author "you usually don't know what you are talking about." But, from having read the article, the author suggests people reallocate their funds to put more into stocks since the market is down. That is the same thing you are saying--even though you tell say the author doesn't know what he is talking about.
Perhaps you should read the article before dispensing the criticism or perhaps it is just more fun to pontificate with self-righteous criticism of others without taking the time to read what you are criticizing.
Why can't we just appreciate the information that is given to us through this free site that seems to have a ton of info for federal employees without whining about everything?
Re: Your Doomsday Prophecy
Civil Engineer VHA Tue Nov 25, 2008 3:41 PM
The buy and hold "at any cost" philosophy......
2 things - you're assuming the market will recover as fast as it went down. (Unlikely considering the structural economic problems worldwide.) the second assumption is that people with money in the G fund won't think to move it back.
My TSP has gained $17K since I moved it all into the G fund last December - when you couple that with the fact that the C fund has lost about 50% since then, I don't have to pick the "bottom" to come out ahead.
Re: Your Doomsday Prophecy
Electronic Tech. USPS Mon Jan 5, 2009 9:26 AM
Left holding the bag??- If I had left my TSP untouched in stead of moving it all into "G" fund at the end of January I would have lost a little over $100k. As it was I lost only about $10k. I would hate to think how long it would of taken me to recover my lost money, 10-15 yrs? I will keep an eye on thing and when it starts to improve for more than 1 or 2 weeks, then I may venture into the other funds.+ 3-4% is still much better then -45 to-50%.
Response to article
Aviation Safety Professional FAA Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:56 AM
I know it's difficult to come up with new material for your articles but tell us something we don't already know. Go out on a limb and provide us with useful information if you can. We can get this kind of information at any number of web sites.
Respectfully
Re: Response to article
IT Specialist USDA Tue Nov 25, 2008 6:31 PM
Really? In that case, please list all of the other sites that provide detailed statistics on the amount of money moved into and out of the TSP funds. I would like to read those sites as well.
TSP Value
Tomato Grower Oaklandon Road Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:58 AM
I would like to know the overall value of TSP investments at the beginning of 2008 compared to now. Just curious. It would also be instructive and/or academic to also compare the overall valuation of the stock market in the 2 same periods. We could compare to see if TSP investors acted in similar fashion as the overall markets.
Back to the greenhouse. The government rarely bails out backyard tomato growers.
Re: TSP Value
Everyday Jane VHA Tue Nov 25, 2008 11:13 AM
They certainly didn't back to tomatoe growers that lost alll of the crops due to the salmanila outbreak this last summer.
Re: TSP Value
Engineer DOD Tue Nov 25, 2008 2:09 PM
Salmanila? Isn't that the capital of the Philippines? Or no, maybe it's the color of those stupid interoffice mail envelopes. I forget...
Duration of Bear Market
Medical Officer Centers of Medicare and Medicaid Services Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:59 AM
Seems to me that if either of the Money magazine predictions is correct, anyone with a 5 year or greater investing horizon should just stay put and continue to buy equities. That's certainly what I am doing.
Re: Duration of Bear Market
PitbullDad DOD Tue Nov 25, 2008 2:22 PM
I'm with Medical Officer. I am retirement eligible (CSRS Age 55 with 31 yrs). Figured I would retire in the next 1-3 years, but draw TSP in 2015, so I favored the more aggressive approach and went 100% in L-2020 a year ago, and don't plan to change a thing.
Diversification
Adminstrative Assistant I.R.S. Tue Nov 25, 2008 10:01 AM
I have been to many, many financial seminars over the last 2 years. Each has preached the same theme, diversification, diversification, diversification. I have done that in my TSP fund. Even though the immediate future looks grim, all the stats I have obtained from those seminars have proven over the long haul, I will be fine when I retire in 4 years. I keep telling myself, "Look at all the stock you are buying cheap" right now! The market is what it is, but history has shown it has always recovered.
Current Allocations
Retired DoD Tue Nov 25, 2008 10:01 AM
If there ever was a time NOT to be putting your current allocations into the G Fund, this is that time.
There are a lot of reasons, and Ralph atriculated many of them, why someone might want to seek the security of the G Fund with their nest egg, but don't miss the buying opportunity in the stock funds now. You have a lot to win, and very little to lose by putting future allocations into stock funds now.
Should I move from G to I?
Comms Op DON Tue Nov 25, 2008 10:26 AM
Checking my TSP has always been difficult. First, get username, then get password. I would always lose one before receiving the other. For the last five years, I hadn't checked my TSP, until a couple weeks ago.
All my money is in the G fund, and WOW! It sure adds up when you don't pay attention to it. However, with the I fund down, and considering that I now have money to move, I'm wondering if I should shift some money to the I fund, since it is so low, and since, concievably, it will eventually go back up.
Or will it? My question is this: Are the stocks in the I fund locked in? Or could the powers that be decide to (while the stocks are down) drop companies q, x, and c, and invest in companies b, l, and h? The current companies in the I fund have gone down, so, one would think, the same companies will eventually go up. If I could count on that, I might shift some money. But if the essence of the fund might change, then I will sit on it. Anyone have any advice?
Re: Should I move from G to I?
Civil Engineer VHA Tue Nov 25, 2008 3:45 PM
Those companies in the I fund will go back up - unless of course they go into bankruptcy, then that stock is worthless. I made a considerable amount of money in the I fund last year - now is not the time to be in the I fund.
Sell, Sell, Sell !!!
Program Specialist ACF Tue Nov 25, 2008 11:02 AM
Please help fund my retirement by selling out of the C,S & I. If you can artifically push the price of the C,S, & I to $1 per share through 09' I feel this would help me gather enough shares to capitalize when the market recovers.
The herd mentality and the uninformed investor only benefits the informed investor!!!
Some people never check their fund while the market is going up, they only get involved when it is going down and they make uninformed decisions. Dang the Luck!!!
18.33%
Accountant, Retired, GS 14 DOE, Albuquerque Tue Nov 25, 2008 11:14 AM
I,ve lost 18.33% since january using a method i've back tested over 20 years. The market is down 44.40% (S&P). According to Blloomberg, I'm in the top 5% of all 1468 balanced funds in the US. I have averaged in the top 7% for 10 years. Can anybody do better over the long run? Give me your numbers!!
Re: 18.33%
Social Sci Program Spec Dept of Vet Affairs Tue Nov 25, 2008 11:34 AM
Would you be at liberty to share your methodology for your relatively miniscule loss? It would be helpful for next time--right now I am hanging on and waiting for the 8-second horn . . . .
The Method, as Requested
Premise- NO ONE CAN GUESS THE MARKET CONSISTENTLY
Method. put 20% in each of 5 funds. never go below 10% in each fund, At the end of each month move 10%from the worst performing fund with more than 10% in it to the the best performing. If you had done this for a year you would be 60%g, 20 F,10%C, 10%I, and 10%,S.
You will do far better than average. if you don't beleive me, back test it. There are a couple of dozen people in my office who are using this mand are quite happy with the results.
History Repeating Itself
Unit Chief DOJ Tue Nov 25, 2008 12:59 PM
The idea that you can dollar cost average, and should stay in the market, has been the conventional wisdom for 25 years. With millions investing, pretty much blindly, in equities during the 401k era we see all that money in equities that wasn't there generation ago, and generally staying the course has resulted in healthy gains. But, the entire growth in the economy, and corresponding growth in equities has been predicated on insane amounts of debt, both public and private. Everyone is at peak credit. The growth since the late 70s was all funded with tomorrow's money. Much of the economic data suggests we are already in an economic shrinkage analogous to the 20s-30s depression. Peak credit, deflation are are here. Save your money. Stay in the G-Fund. The market is not going to go up until de-leveraging is complete. That could take 20 years. G fund offers steady gains. Save more and keep your fed job if you can. The pension is a life saver.
MOVE IT! MOVE IT!
UR/QM MEDVAMC Tue Nov 25, 2008 1:16 PM
I am sorry, but I plan on retiring in 2011. I just could not stomach watching all my savings and investments go down the toilet...even as my CPA told me, "let it ride, you will get it all back....you will loose more by missing out on the gains made when this turns around"... I am sorry, but as bad as my math skills are, that just doesnt make sense to me...I only have 3 years left to recoup any loses I would have suffered, had I "let it ride"! I moved all my money into the G fund way back in February 2008, and have consequently lost less than 5K. I have watched my co-workers that subscribe to the "let it ride" theory, loose almost half of their retirement funds....Thank God my home is paid for and I have paid off all my credit cards....I have no debt. And my retirement account is still at the pre-bear market level! I will be able to stay on track and retire in 2011....so far!!!
Re: MOVE IT! MOVE IT!
Civil Engineer VHA Tue Nov 25, 2008 3:52 PM
Good man!
The conventional wisdon that you can't time the market is quite correct. But....you can read the economy if you do the research - this downturn was pasted all over the internet as far back as September 2007. There were several informative articles on the overseas derivatives market - written generally, not for the expert.
Don't accept "canned" advice without at least thinking about it and doing a little reading on your own!
As the Market Drops
Civil Engineer VHA Tue Nov 25, 2008 3:38 PM
I'm not so sure the naysayers are all that wrong :)
The market of course is not the economy, however in the long run it will tend to track the economy - and right now the economic outlook is down for at least the next year. Investors need to be realistic and not see just what they'd like to see. Stocks could creep along the bottom for 10 years (see the 70's).
Keep in mind too, when you hear the "hold 'em at all costs" crew that the percentages work against you on the downside. A 50% loss (e.g. ytd "I" fund) means that a $100,000 account is now worth $50K. But a 50% increase in the market in the next year (dream on) means your $50 K account will only go to $75K - recovery can take you much longer than you think.
Is this not gambling?
Contract Analyst Navy Tue Nov 25, 2008 4:24 PM
I think I would do better with the horses. It's extremely regulated, easier to handicap, and I needn't concern myself with corporate greed and corruption.
Re: Is this not gambling?
Accountant, Retired, GS 14 DOE, Albuquerque Wed Nov 26, 2008 7:03 AM
my father was a Starter in horse racing for 40 plus years. Beleive me, it's fixed a good part of the time
Black Friday
Not The Smartest Guy In The Room Military Tue Nov 25, 2008 5:04 PM
I moved everything into G at the beginning of the year and have stayed there. Currently, I won't tell anyone not to start buying back into the stock funds right now; however, I'm waiting to see what happens after Black Friday, to see if people go shopping. I'm inclined to think retail is going to take a big hit soon.
I'm probably not going to do anything until we're into the New Year, and at the very least, the DOW needs to stop bouncing around like a ping pong ball and stabilize a bit, day-to-day, before I even start to consider getting back in.
Thanks,
I Want Out EARLY!!!
Worried TSP Investor USPS Tue Nov 25, 2008 6:07 PM
I'm ready to cash out. I'm willing to take the gamble that either I won't be around to see my tsp money, or the money just won't be there.
The Next Up Cycle
Fed Peasant DOD Tue Nov 25, 2008 10:42 PM
When global recovery comes, I expect the international stocks (I Fund) to recover well ahead of the US market. We are apt to be the laggard. That's why I am all equity. 70% I, 20% C, & 10% S. I expect the US dollar to lose more value. This makes a further boost for foreign holdings. The US bond market (F Fund) is in for a bigger whopping, with all of this stimulation & bail outs. Eventually, the F fund will be a good long term holding.
Article quality
Randy US Army Wed Nov 26, 2008 1:23 AM
This article did not say anything of value (useful) or informative. Same stuff I read everywhere else.
Re: Article quality
lr specialist USDA Wed Nov 26, 2008 7:11 AM
Personally, I found the reaction of my colleagues to the market downturn to be interesting and useful. I am now transferring money from the G fund into the C, S and I funds as a result.
Apparently some people expect instant advice when to buy or sell stocks in the TSP. Although a number of studies have demonstrated that people who try to time the market usually lose money over the long run, that doesn't stop some from trying.
In other words, I can't figure out what those who read these articles are expecting. Presumably, they want to know when they should jump back into the market a day or two before it goes back up. Based on dealing with the federal workforce over the past two decades, these same people complaining now would be threatening a lawsuit if the free advice did not turn out to be completely accurate because they followed the advice--despite the studies showing the direction of the market cannot be successfully predicted.
My advice: keep up the good work on the TSP articles and ignore the many whiners among us.
Your Doomsday Prophecy
Auditor DODIG Wed Nov 26, 2008 4:19 AM
Simple advice:
Work Longer, Save More, Spend Less and Take Care of Your Health.
You're No Nostradamus
Nostradamus DoD Wed Nov 26, 2008 5:19 AM
Over the past 88 years, if you missed just 4-days of being in the market it would have cost you 916% in total returns. Just 4-days. Soon, there will be a 5th. You guess which day. Fact is, if you stayed in the Market throughout every correction you would be a multi-millionaire today. Right now the market is selling off due to "Herd Mentality. Fund managers must sell off to produce cash to pay off those with fund sell-orders. Those investors are dleeing to "safety" and are looking to preserve their cash, not earn a Capital Gain. They don't see Gold, Real Estate or Equities as options. But eventyally, inflation will eat them alive due to low returns on "Safe Investments." When they percieve a bottom in the market, the "Herd Mentality" will result in literally Trillions being infused into the Equity Markets. You will miss that 5th day and regret it for the rest of your life.
Re: You're No Nostradamus
Accountant, Retired, GS 14 DOE, Albuquerque Wed Nov 26, 2008 8:01 AM
even Warren Buffet doesn't just buy and hold. He dos quite a bit of trading
Re: You're No Nostradamus
Manager DOI Wed Nov 26, 2008 5:59 PM
Nostradamus- What a load of.... Whose investing (working) career lasts 88 years, for most not even half of that!?!?!? I get so tired of this BUY and HOLD song and dance!! How's that working for you lately??? I'm not perfect at picking tops or bottoms, but I can recognize when there is a change (or there soon will be) in the longer term trend. Anyone who couldn't recognize the change and the entrance of the nervousness in the markets starting in Oct. 2007 wasn't paying very close attention. I'm still 100% in the G Fund and plan to stay there until we have a REAL botom, which isn't here yet. We may (or maybe not) have seen the lows, but I wouldn't count on it yet!!! I've done great in my IRA's the past several months since I was "short" (held positions in the Rydex 2 times inverse funds that track the S&P 500 and other indexes). I got out of my "short" funds (which gained 2% for every 1% drop in the indexes) that big "down" day in early October. Buy and hold is unwise!
G Fund for Retirees
Adjudications Officer INS Wed Nov 26, 2008 8:17 AM
What this article doesn't explain:
If you're retired (no longer making contributions to your TSP), you should be in the G-Fund. That assures you that what you've already contributed is protected.
If you're still working and expect to be working for the forseeable future (say, ten years), you should be putting most of your retirement money in the C-Fund. You'd be buying stocks while they are cheap. When the market recovers and those "cheap" stocks increase in value, your investment grows faster than the G-fund has been growing during "the troubles." The L-Fund is a good, safe choice too, with its mix of different funds.
If you're still working but are at a time when you're looking to retire, you'd be better off in the G-fund. You need to secure what you already have.
Re: G Fund for Retirees
Supervisory IT Specialist DON Wed Nov 26, 2008 1:29 PM
Not necessarily true. The G fund won't keep up with inflation, so you will actually lose money keeping in the "safe" G fund.
Some mix of stocks is warranted, even past retirement. That being said, lots of people keep their funds in CDs and other safe investments.
Its a personal choice, and you have to be able to sleep at night!
if you are retired u need some money in stocks, or you will run out of money. Most planners recommend 20 to 30 percent
Re: G Fund for Retirees
Electronics Engineer FCC Mon Dec 8, 2008 7:12 AM
Actually, the CPI has been averaging around 2.3% for the last decade or so, and the G Fund return during this time has been 3.5% to 4%. It does keep up with inflation. I'm not saying be in G Fund when the market is rising, but when the market trends long and short are falling, G Fund is a great place to be. Try getting a similar return in the private sector that has no market risk.
You're No Nostradamus
Nostradamus DoD Wed Nov 26, 2008 6:45 PM
The Market is up for the 4th straight day. You may have already missed that 5th day. Funny to see someboby critique my position right smack in the middle of what could prove me right. If the market neversinks below this point, the the "Retired Accountant" should be glad he is. (YOU GOT #@&^!@!!!). You missed the 5th day buddy.
Re: You're No Nostradamus
observer DoD Mon Dec 1, 2008 3:48 PM
The S&P lost 8.93% today.
TSP/Stock drop presents rare opportunity
computer op DOD/NSA Wed Nov 26, 2008 7:46 PM
I'm taking advantage of the 30-40% drop in stocks to agressively transfer my entire TSP balance to a ROTH IRA at a record pace while still taking advantage of current tax laws. What would have taken 10 years to do will now take 5 or less depending on how much if any tax I am willing to pay on the yearly transfers out of TSP into my ROTH. Once the funds are in the ROTH I will have virtualy unlimited trading restraints which TSP can't compete with. More control of my ROTH funds will net me huge earnings that TSP rules/restrictions preclude. Once all my funds are in the ROTH I am home free from the tax man which should net me 10-35% returns just from taxes alone. I really feel for anyone stuck in TSP and my advice to the younger Fed workers is to only put in what is matched and find another place to invest. For older Fed workers I am advising them to retire early and move their money out as quickly as possible since the TSP is now one of the most expensive 401K plans to stay in.
Re: TSP/Stock drop presents rare opportunity
Chris fcc Fri Jun 5, 2009 12:14 AM
how do we go about transferring the tsp funds to a roth ira?
airy prognostications
Lord of Lords the universe Thu Nov 27, 2008 7:28 AM
past is not prologue in this latest of financial fiascos. we are in new, uncharted territory. nonetheless, we still have criminals and crooks that have a big say in how the country goes--dare I say, forward. Barney Frank, Chis Dodd, Treasury Secretary Paulson. These are a few of the guys who I would like to see put behind bars for decades!
why are there no investigations going forward as to how this all happened? why are there not criminal charges? it should be apparent: our government is corrupt and mostly worthless. face it America: this country is going down unless these frauds are exposed and expelled and a real cleansing takes place. this new president elect gives me zero hope that this will ever happen.
yo yo effect
Mr. Delion Department of Homeland Security, CBP Sun Nov 30, 2008 5:31 PM
I am in it for the long haul....up down down up up up up gots to believe in the American economy.
Transferring to the safety ofthe G fund
Transportation Regulations Specialist U.S. DOT Tue Dec 2, 2008 4:30 PM
An Office mate of mine predicted this bear market back in June/July. I Listened to him and moved my TSP to the G Fund, especially since I am retiring in January 2009.
I am one of those people who will be enjoying the sunset on the beach with a secure future.
time
busness government Tue Dec 2, 2008 8:15 PM
is now the time to move into c funds
Update
Richard DoD Fri Jan 9, 2009 1:59 PM
How about updating your Nov 25 commentary? I'd like to see what you think about being in the market or the G Fund now. I moved all my money from the I fund to the G Fund on Nov 20 2008 because the value had gone down almost 50%. What should I do now? Get back in the market? What fund?
Thanks
Richard
People who still have 30+ years!
Supervisor Department of Veteran Affairs Tue Feb 24, 2009 9:31 AM
So I have been reading articles in TSP corner and all I see is talk about G Funds, I Funds, C Funds and etc... I am a person who has awhile befor retiring with the Government, (30 years) to be exact and well I would like to hear more talk on the Lifecycle Funds that TSP offers. Currently I am vesting a 5% with the match and am 100% in L2040. So what do you have to say or can provide to people who still have lots of time remaining in their federal careers?
Your Doomsday Prophecy
Independent Agency
Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:45 AM
I have to chuckle every time you start dispensing investment advice since you usually don't know what you are talking about. The old adage that "you can't time the market" will hold true even in this bear market. The conventional wisdom is to continue funding your TSP account at the same levels, according to your same plan, since you are now buying shares of stock on sale. When the rally comes (and it will eventually come), you will realize a sizable profit, while thise who shifted everything to the G fund will be left holding the bag.
Re: Your Doomsday Prophecy
Dod Agency
Tue Nov 25, 2008 11:10 AM
Perhaps you should read the article before dispensing the criticism or perhaps it is just more fun to pontificate with self-righteous criticism of others without taking the time to read what you are criticizing.
Why can't we just appreciate the information that is given to us through this free site that seems to have a ton of info for federal employees without whining about everything?
Re: Your Doomsday Prophecy
VHA
Tue Nov 25, 2008 3:41 PM
2 things - you're assuming the market will recover as fast as it went down. (Unlikely considering the structural economic problems worldwide.) the second assumption is that people with money in the G fund won't think to move it back.
My TSP has gained $17K since I moved it all into the G fund last December - when you couple that with the fact that the C fund has lost about 50% since then, I don't have to pick the "bottom" to come out ahead.
Re: Your Doomsday Prophecy
USPS
Mon Jan 5, 2009 9:26 AM
Response to article
FAA
Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:56 AM
I know it's difficult to come up with new material for your articles but tell us something we don't already know. Go out on a limb and provide us with useful information if you can. We can get this kind of information at any number of web sites.
Respectfully
Re: Response to article
USDA
Tue Nov 25, 2008 6:31 PM
TSP Value
Oaklandon Road
Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:58 AM
I would like to know the overall value of TSP investments at the beginning of 2008 compared to now. Just curious. It would also be instructive and/or academic to also compare the overall valuation of the stock market in the 2 same periods. We could compare to see if TSP investors acted in similar fashion as the overall markets.
Back to the greenhouse. The government rarely bails out backyard tomato growers.
Re: TSP Value
VHA
Tue Nov 25, 2008 11:13 AM
Re: TSP Value
DOD
Tue Nov 25, 2008 2:09 PM
Duration of Bear Market
Centers of Medicare and Medicaid Services
Tue Nov 25, 2008 9:59 AM
Seems to me that if either of the Money magazine predictions is correct, anyone with a 5 year or greater investing horizon should just stay put and continue to buy equities. That's certainly what I am doing.
Re: Duration of Bear Market
DOD
Tue Nov 25, 2008 2:22 PM
Diversification
I.R.S.
Tue Nov 25, 2008 10:01 AM
I have been to many, many financial seminars over the last 2 years. Each has preached the same theme, diversification, diversification, diversification. I have done that in my TSP fund. Even though the immediate future looks grim, all the stats I have obtained from those seminars have proven over the long haul, I will be fine when I retire in 4 years. I keep telling myself, "Look at all the stock you are buying cheap" right now! The market is what it is, but history has shown it has always recovered.
Current Allocations
DoD
Tue Nov 25, 2008 10:01 AM
If there ever was a time NOT to be putting your current allocations into the G Fund, this is that time.
There are a lot of reasons, and Ralph atriculated many of them, why someone might want to seek the security of the G Fund with their nest egg, but don't miss the buying opportunity in the stock funds now. You have a lot to win, and very little to lose by putting future allocations into stock funds now.
Should I move from G to I?
DON
Tue Nov 25, 2008 10:26 AM
Checking my TSP has always been difficult. First, get username, then get password. I would always lose one before receiving the other. For the last five years, I hadn't checked my TSP, until a couple weeks ago.
All my money is in the G fund, and WOW! It sure adds up when you don't pay attention to it. However, with the I fund down, and considering that I now have money to move, I'm wondering if I should shift some money to the I fund, since it is so low, and since, concievably, it will eventually go back up.
Or will it? My question is this: Are the stocks in the I fund locked in? Or could the powers that be decide to (while the stocks are down) drop companies q, x, and c, and invest in companies b, l, and h? The current companies in the I fund have gone down, so, one would think, the same companies will eventually go up. If I could count on that, I might shift some money. But if the essence of the fund might change, then I will sit on it. Anyone have any advice?
Re: Should I move from G to I?
VHA
Tue Nov 25, 2008 3:45 PM
Sell, Sell, Sell !!!
ACF
Tue Nov 25, 2008 11:02 AM
Please help fund my retirement by selling out of the C,S & I. If you can artifically push the price of the C,S, & I to $1 per share through 09' I feel this would help me gather enough shares to capitalize when the market recovers.
The herd mentality and the uninformed investor only benefits the informed investor!!!
Some people never check their fund while the market is going up, they only get involved when it is going down and they make uninformed decisions. Dang the Luck!!!
18.33%
DOE, Albuquerque
Tue Nov 25, 2008 11:14 AM
I,ve lost 18.33% since january using a method i've back tested over 20 years. The market is down 44.40% (S&P). According to Blloomberg, I'm in the top 5% of all 1468 balanced funds in the US. I have averaged in the top 7% for 10 years. Can anybody do better over the long run? Give me your numbers!!
Re: 18.33%
Dept of Vet Affairs
Tue Nov 25, 2008 11:34 AM
Re: 18.33%
DOE, Albuquerque
Tue Nov 25, 2008 12:08 PM
Premise- NO ONE CAN GUESS THE MARKET CONSISTENTLY
Method. put 20% in each of 5 funds. never go below 10% in each fund, At the end of each month move 10%from the worst performing fund with more than 10% in it to the the best performing. If you had done this for a year you would be 60%g, 20 F,10%C, 10%I, and 10%,S.
You will do far better than average. if you don't beleive me, back test it. There are a couple of dozen people in my office who are using this mand are quite happy with the results.
History Repeating Itself
DOJ
Tue Nov 25, 2008 12:59 PM
The idea that you can dollar cost average, and should stay in the market, has been the conventional wisdom for 25 years. With millions investing, pretty much blindly, in equities during the 401k era we see all that money in equities that wasn't there generation ago, and generally staying the course has resulted in healthy gains. But, the entire growth in the economy, and corresponding growth in equities has been predicated on insane amounts of debt, both public and private. Everyone is at peak credit. The growth since the late 70s was all funded with tomorrow's money. Much of the economic data suggests we are already in an economic shrinkage analogous to the 20s-30s depression. Peak credit, deflation are are here. Save your money. Stay in the G-Fund. The market is not going to go up until de-leveraging is complete. That could take 20 years. G fund offers steady gains. Save more and keep your fed job if you can. The pension is a life saver.
MOVE IT! MOVE IT!
MEDVAMC
Tue Nov 25, 2008 1:16 PM
I am sorry, but I plan on retiring in 2011. I just could not stomach watching all my savings and investments go down the toilet...even as my CPA told me, "let it ride, you will get it all back....you will loose more by missing out on the gains made when this turns around"... I am sorry, but as bad as my math skills are, that just doesnt make sense to me...I only have 3 years left to recoup any loses I would have suffered, had I "let it ride"! I moved all my money into the G fund way back in February 2008, and have consequently lost less than 5K. I have watched my co-workers that subscribe to the "let it ride" theory, loose almost half of their retirement funds....Thank God my home is paid for and I have paid off all my credit cards....I have no debt. And my retirement account is still at the pre-bear market level! I will be able to stay on track and retire in 2011....so far!!!
Re: MOVE IT! MOVE IT!
VHA
Tue Nov 25, 2008 3:52 PM
The conventional wisdon that you can't time the market is quite correct. But....you can read the economy if you do the research - this downturn was pasted all over the internet as far back as September 2007. There were several informative articles on the overseas derivatives market - written generally, not for the expert.
Don't accept "canned" advice without at least thinking about it and doing a little reading on your own!
As the Market Drops
VHA
Tue Nov 25, 2008 3:38 PM
I'm not so sure the naysayers are all that wrong :)
The market of course is not the economy, however in the long run it will tend to track the economy - and right now the economic outlook is down for at least the next year. Investors need to be realistic and not see just what they'd like to see. Stocks could creep along the bottom for 10 years (see the 70's).
Keep in mind too, when you hear the "hold 'em at all costs" crew that the percentages work against you on the downside. A 50% loss (e.g. ytd "I" fund) means that a $100,000 account is now worth $50K. But a 50% increase in the market in the next year (dream on) means your $50 K account will only go to $75K - recovery can take you much longer than you think.
Is this not gambling?
Navy
Tue Nov 25, 2008 4:24 PM
I think I would do better with the horses. It's extremely regulated, easier to handicap, and I needn't concern myself with corporate greed and corruption.
Re: Is this not gambling?
DOE, Albuquerque
Wed Nov 26, 2008 7:03 AM
Black Friday
Military
Tue Nov 25, 2008 5:04 PM
I moved everything into G at the beginning of the year and have stayed there. Currently, I won't tell anyone not to start buying back into the stock funds right now; however, I'm waiting to see what happens after Black Friday, to see if people go shopping. I'm inclined to think retail is going to take a big hit soon.
I'm probably not going to do anything until we're into the New Year, and at the very least, the DOW needs to stop bouncing around like a ping pong ball and stabilize a bit, day-to-day, before I even start to consider getting back in.
Thanks,
I Want Out EARLY!!!
USPS
Tue Nov 25, 2008 6:07 PM
I'm ready to cash out. I'm willing to take the gamble that either I won't be around to see my tsp money, or the money just won't be there.
The Next Up Cycle
DOD
Tue Nov 25, 2008 10:42 PM
When global recovery comes, I expect the international stocks (I Fund) to recover well ahead of the US market. We are apt to be the laggard. That's why I am all equity. 70% I, 20% C, & 10% S. I expect the US dollar to lose more value. This makes a further boost for foreign holdings. The US bond market (F Fund) is in for a bigger whopping, with all of this stimulation & bail outs. Eventually, the F fund will be a good long term holding.
Article quality
US Army
Wed Nov 26, 2008 1:23 AM
This article did not say anything of value (useful) or informative. Same stuff I read everywhere else.
Re: Article quality
USDA
Wed Nov 26, 2008 7:11 AM
Apparently some people expect instant advice when to buy or sell stocks in the TSP. Although a number of studies have demonstrated that people who try to time the market usually lose money over the long run, that doesn't stop some from trying.
In other words, I can't figure out what those who read these articles are expecting. Presumably, they want to know when they should jump back into the market a day or two before it goes back up. Based on dealing with the federal workforce over the past two decades, these same people complaining now would be threatening a lawsuit if the free advice did not turn out to be completely accurate because they followed the advice--despite the studies showing the direction of the market cannot be successfully predicted.
My advice: keep up the good work on the TSP articles and ignore the many whiners among us.
Your Doomsday Prophecy
DODIG
Wed Nov 26, 2008 4:19 AM
Simple advice:
Work Longer, Save More, Spend Less and Take Care of Your Health.
You're No Nostradamus
DoD
Wed Nov 26, 2008 5:19 AM
Over the past 88 years, if you missed just 4-days of being in the market it would have cost you 916% in total returns. Just 4-days. Soon, there will be a 5th. You guess which day. Fact is, if you stayed in the Market throughout every correction you would be a multi-millionaire today. Right now the market is selling off due to "Herd Mentality. Fund managers must sell off to produce cash to pay off those with fund sell-orders. Those investors are dleeing to "safety" and are looking to preserve their cash, not earn a Capital Gain. They don't see Gold, Real Estate or Equities as options. But eventyally, inflation will eat them alive due to low returns on "Safe Investments." When they percieve a bottom in the market, the "Herd Mentality" will result in literally Trillions being infused into the Equity Markets. You will miss that 5th day and regret it for the rest of your life.
Re: You're No Nostradamus
DOE, Albuquerque
Wed Nov 26, 2008 8:01 AM
Re: You're No Nostradamus
DOI
Wed Nov 26, 2008 5:59 PM
G Fund for Retirees
INS
Wed Nov 26, 2008 8:17 AM
What this article doesn't explain:
If you're retired (no longer making contributions to your TSP), you should be in the G-Fund. That assures you that what you've already contributed is protected.
If you're still working and expect to be working for the forseeable future (say, ten years), you should be putting most of your retirement money in the C-Fund. You'd be buying stocks while they are cheap. When the market recovers and those "cheap" stocks increase in value, your investment grows faster than the G-fund has been growing during "the troubles." The L-Fund is a good, safe choice too, with its mix of different funds.
If you're still working but are at a time when you're looking to retire, you'd be better off in the G-fund. You need to secure what you already have.
Re: G Fund for Retirees
DON
Wed Nov 26, 2008 1:29 PM
Some mix of stocks is warranted, even past retirement. That being said, lots of people keep their funds in CDs and other safe investments.
Its a personal choice, and you have to be able to sleep at night!
Re: G Fund for Retirees
DOE, Albuquerque
Wed Nov 26, 2008 2:12 PM
Re: G Fund for Retirees
FCC
Mon Dec 8, 2008 7:12 AM
You're No Nostradamus
DoD
Wed Nov 26, 2008 6:45 PM
The Market is up for the 4th straight day. You may have already missed that 5th day. Funny to see someboby critique my position right smack in the middle of what could prove me right. If the market neversinks below this point, the the "Retired Accountant" should be glad he is. (YOU GOT #@&^!@!!!). You missed the 5th day buddy.
Re: You're No Nostradamus
DoD
Mon Dec 1, 2008 3:48 PM
TSP/Stock drop presents rare opportunity
DOD/NSA
Wed Nov 26, 2008 7:46 PM
I'm taking advantage of the 30-40% drop in stocks to agressively transfer my entire TSP balance to a ROTH IRA at a record pace while still taking advantage of current tax laws. What would have taken 10 years to do will now take 5 or less depending on how much if any tax I am willing to pay on the yearly transfers out of TSP into my ROTH. Once the funds are in the ROTH I will have virtualy unlimited trading restraints which TSP can't compete with. More control of my ROTH funds will net me huge earnings that TSP rules/restrictions preclude. Once all my funds are in the ROTH I am home free from the tax man which should net me 10-35% returns just from taxes alone. I really feel for anyone stuck in TSP and my advice to the younger Fed workers is to only put in what is matched and find another place to invest. For older Fed workers I am advising them to retire early and move their money out as quickly as possible since the TSP is now one of the most expensive 401K plans to stay in.
Re: TSP/Stock drop presents rare opportunity
fcc
Fri Jun 5, 2009 12:14 AM
airy prognostications
the universe
Thu Nov 27, 2008 7:28 AM
past is not prologue in this latest of financial fiascos. we are in new, uncharted territory. nonetheless, we still have criminals and crooks that have a big say in how the country goes--dare I say, forward. Barney Frank, Chis Dodd, Treasury Secretary Paulson. These are a few of the guys who I would like to see put behind bars for decades!
why are there no investigations going forward as to how this all happened? why are there not criminal charges? it should be apparent: our government is corrupt and mostly worthless. face it America: this country is going down unless these frauds are exposed and expelled and a real cleansing takes place. this new president elect gives me zero hope that this will ever happen.
yo yo effect
Department of Homeland Security, CBP
Sun Nov 30, 2008 5:31 PM
I am in it for the long haul....up down down up up up up gots to believe in the American economy.
Transferring to the safety ofthe G fund
U.S. DOT
Tue Dec 2, 2008 4:30 PM
An Office mate of mine predicted this bear market back in June/July. I Listened to him and moved my TSP to the G Fund, especially since I am retiring in January 2009.
I am one of those people who will be enjoying the sunset on the beach with a secure future.
time
government
Tue Dec 2, 2008 8:15 PM
is now the time to move into c funds
Update
DoD
Fri Jan 9, 2009 1:59 PM
How about updating your Nov 25 commentary? I'd like to see what you think about being in the market or the G Fund now. I moved all my money from the I fund to the G Fund on Nov 20 2008 because the value had gone down almost 50%. What should I do now? Get back in the market? What fund?
Thanks
Richard
People who still have 30+ years!
Department of Veteran Affairs
Tue Feb 24, 2009 9:31 AM
So I have been reading articles in TSP corner and all I see is talk about G Funds, I Funds, C Funds and etc... I am a person who has awhile befor retiring with the Government, (30 years) to be exact and well I would like to hear more talk on the Lifecycle Funds that TSP offers. Currently I am vesting a 5% with the match and am 100% in L2040. So what do you have to say or can provide to people who still have lots of time remaining in their federal careers?