I am retired and 100% in the G Fund. I will be reallocating some of my TSP money back into the TSP stock funds soon. I got out of the stock funds before the market tanked. Many fund managers are advising the latest stock market advances are speculative and they are urging caution because market fuundamentals are still very poor.
TSP and the current maqrket rise
worker Fed Thu Apr 23, 2009 9:51 AM
The article is very good. It subscribes to the theory that even the experts do not know where it is going.
I do not like the headline as it suggests an u market. Hopefully it will happen, but the article suggests caution and uncertainty.
Historical Revisionism
Landscape Architect USDA Thu Apr 23, 2009 9:58 AM
I don't think there should be historical revisionism allowed at this website. You are fostering misinformation about the past.
1) The depression stimulus money worked, it stopped working when the president bowed to political pressure and cut spending later.
2) World War II was government spending, duh.....
Re: Historical Revisionism
HR Spec DoD Agency Thu Apr 23, 2009 10:15 AM
It seems to me that the author was being objective and most people are probably not aware that after about 10 years of "stimulus" spending, the depression was still alive and well.
Perhaps "historical revisionism" is a good thing as our history books tell us that Roosevelt ended the depression. Perhaps he did, but only after Japan attacked Pearl Harbor and Hitler took over most of Europe--hardly part of the new deal.
Unfortunately, in today's society, simply stating two different points of view may qualify as "historical revisionism" if the person taking offense does not see full adoption or cheerleading for his particular point of view.
good article; I was not aware of our current stock market's similarity to the 1930's and that the new deal did not seem to have any impact until two years into the war--if it had any positive impact at all. It should give all of us concern for our current direction in spending and investing
Re: Historical Revisionism
Federal Employee Federal Fri Apr 24, 2009 7:31 AM
Since none of us (mostly) were there, we can only rely on the history books and maybe some who are still living and can remember what happened...
but to those who keep knocking the new President's current plan, I say, if you have something better to add or make the market and economy better then by all means share!!! If not, then wait and see, its easy to be a heckler, it takes intelligence and courage to come up with a solution....
TSP
Retired LR Manager Retired Thu Apr 23, 2009 10:05 AM
No. Unemployment is still on rise. Foreclosures are still on rise. This is a fool's market. Less equities (stocks); more balance and cash is king.
historical charts are neat to look at, but...
employee FED GOVT Thu Apr 23, 2009 10:22 AM
Sell high...buy low.
Don't buy into rallies...sell into rallies...
Charts cannot help you with above common sense approaches.
And, forget what the talking financial talking heads are saying on a daily basis...next week they will be saying something different. Nobody knows the future.
Those that believe follow chartists - just missed out on an unbelievable rally and are, probably, foolishly buying now...
Last...never forget the old stock market adage: Walk away in May...come in SEP/OCT. This summer we all will have another great buying opportunity. Be patient.
Good luck.
China's Investment in our Future
Biologist Department of Interior Thu Apr 23, 2009 10:37 AM
What happens when the Chinese cash in their T-Bills? Given the concerns in China concerning our spending and economic conditions, the possibility certainly exist and I'm not sure if the present administration is prepared to address the issue.
Question
DOD DOD Thu Apr 23, 2009 10:41 AM
I'm wondering if the "market timers" bought back into the c, s, and i funds yet...or did they miss large, short term gains, as it the danger?
Article above
HR Specialist OPM Thu Apr 23, 2009 11:10 AM
Of course, even the government can't entirely waste trillions of "stimulus" dollars being thrown at the recession. Undoubtedly, there will be some "bounce," as a result. The problem is that this is akin to going on a spending spree with a credit card. It's fun while it lasts, and a good time is had by all - until the day of reckoning comes and the next billing cycle statement arrives. The "stimulus" funds represent the expenditure of massive amounts of borrowed money, the impact of which will be short-term, if not ephemeral, following which will follow the hangover represented by a national debt that has tripled. To put that in prespective, within less than a decade, we'll be paying $1 trillion annually just in interest payments. This is exquisitely timed to coincide with the implosion of the Social Security system, which will become effectively bankrupt by 2017, when incoming FICA taxes are for the first time since 1935 exceeded by Social Security benefit outlays. Ah well.
Re: Article above
Civil Servant DOD Thu Apr 23, 2009 12:03 PM
And for this, after 8 years of a Democratic President and Congress, they won't have W to blame it on.
Re: Article above
Older American Fed Agency Wed May 13, 2009 10:29 AM
We won't survive 8 years. . .or atleast we will not recognize what's left.
Numbers
Retired Fed None Fri Apr 24, 2009 7:58 AM
The beauty of numbers is that they’ll say anything. Thirty percent increases following 40 percent losses sound good, but the numbers say you’ve still lost – plenty ! Stock valued at 100 loses 40 percent and its value falls to 60. It then gains 30 percent. Many think the value is now 90, when it is only 78 as losses and gains compound.
Government spending does not return prosperity for a simple reason – those dependent on the largesse are not expanding their purchasing. At last estimate Americans recently had $5 trillion of their private wealth evaporate. If folks are having trouble with home mortgage and tax payments, they are not buying houses, cars and big screens.
Re: Numbers
Tech Writer TACOM Mon Apr 27, 2009 1:44 PM
Well.. actually.. outside of the TSP.. for those that "stock pick" real well... You can be up WAY MORE than you lost since Dow 14000 just off the March Lows rally.
How?
Just look at how Whirlpool traded today. Investors who use Wide Dips to buy on 10 or 20 point swings in the stock price have enjoyed a rally from $19 to nearly $50 in a few short weeks.
Unfortunately for TSP.. You can't invest in a specific stock. We stuck with index funds.... Self-Managed investment is a concept the Government would never allow but it creates wealth beyond your wildest dreams.
Re: Historical Revisionism (by Federal Employee)
specialist VA Fri Apr 24, 2009 9:14 AM
"but to those who keep knocking the new President's current plan, I say, if you have something better to add or make the market and economy better then by all means share!!! If not, then wait and see, its easy to be a heckler, it takes intelligence and courage to come up with a solution.... "
Well said, Federal Employee. I wonder if maybe those who are attacking President Obama's efforts are just hoping to divide the nation. Maybe they're hoping he WILL fail. Cutting one's nose off to spite his/her face?
Re: Re: Historical Revisionism (by Federal Employee)
It Spec dod Sat Apr 25, 2009 12:02 AM
specialist - What you call "attacking" is actually pointing out serious flaws that will have a negative effect on the future of the nation. These things need to be brought to our attention.
Do you expect everybody to keep their mouths shut when they see big problems in the direction we're headed? Obviously that makes no sense at all.
Re: Re: Historical Revisionism (by Federal Employee)
Older American Fed Agency Wed May 13, 2009 10:34 AM
I don't think those who still operate under the "freedom of speech" and "agreeing to disagree" are the ones who are "dividing" the Country. That started a few months ago. I've never seen so much name-calling and accusations of being "un-American" every time someone (usually someone talking "common sense") disagrees with the present administration and their followers.
Let's get back to being able to have an open discussion without one side always throwing out accusations and name-calling. That's nothing short of a diversion tactic, used by those who fully understand that the "opposition" is speaking the truth.
Re: Re: Historical Revisionism (by Federal Employee)
QAR DoD Tue Jun 2, 2009 10:24 AM
Instead of the government giving all these BIG corporations trillions in bail out money, he should have given all those trillions, equally, to every LEGAL citizen in the form of a stimulus check, this way each American would use those thousands of dollars received to put back into the economy, thereby securing goods and services right here in the good old U S of A! But now our future generations will be paying down this "bill" forever. Yup, good old American inginuity! Gotta luv it!
Re: Re: Historical Revisionism (by Federal Employee)
RE Guy USACE Tue Jun 2, 2009 11:22 AM
Specialist - Perhaps you ought to listen to Dave Ramsey's talk on Hope - a discussion that points out the many flaws of BOTH the Republican & Democratic approaches of bailing out companies that are poorly managed/run. Mortgaging our kids future is no way to ensure a good economy. Keynesian economics has NOT proven itself to be valid. For the Republicans - tax-based trickle down economics created immoral use of economic (business) power. For the Democrats - the current administrations approach is simply a related version with a "Public investment" form of trickle down economics. Neither can nor will build up the middle class - small business entrepreneurial backbone of this country (been there). "Stimulus" needs to do just that & to the right group - rather than trying to save failed business models. I am VERY critical of the current socialist approach & was critical of the previous administration as well. I AM glad I live in a "Free Speech Country" & I THANK GOD FOR IT !!!
Caution
Tech Writer TACOM Mon Apr 27, 2009 5:21 AM
History is meaningless. Dow 8000 is also meaningless.
It just means we went Nowhere after falling from 14000, because the DOW was 8000 on Pres. Obama's Inauguration. If anything, one can argue the Dow is down 1,000 points since January 6th. That is a very fantastic recovery to me.
The market isn't recovering or in recovery mode until at least DOW 8500. Now thanks to Swine Flu and Stress Test Flu we will drop lower this week just like last.
Breaking Even by Losing Worth
PME Not Offered Wed May 6, 2009 6:53 PM
If you pump trillions of dollars into a dying economy, forcing organizations and government agencies to spend money, by borrowing money from China and international countries.. what do you get? An inflated dollar, which causes more $ to buy the same amount, for short term buyer assurance and a false sense of security but la ong term debt we cannot pay off that awaits for the United States and others like a Gorilla in the room. Yeah! Short term win, long term heart ache. Put your money in now and when it tapers, take it and run.
Stimulus money.
Engineer BOR Mon Sep 28, 2009 10:12 AM
Look at it this way, There are approximately 210 million people legally in the USA (men, women, and children). If you take the 785 billion dollars that they gave to big corporations and divided it among the 210 million legal residents, then ever one of these taxpayers would get approximately $3,738.00 each to spend as needed. Now THAT would have been a stimulus package. We get the money, we spend the money, and they collect the taxes. The way it is, everyone for generations goes deeper in debit.
TSP
DHHS
Thu Apr 23, 2009 9:41 AM
I am retired and 100% in the G Fund. I will be reallocating some of my TSP money back into the TSP stock funds soon. I got out of the stock funds before the market tanked. Many fund managers are advising the latest stock market advances are speculative and they are urging caution because market fuundamentals are still very poor.
TSP and the current maqrket rise
Fed
Thu Apr 23, 2009 9:51 AM
The article is very good. It subscribes to the theory that even the experts do not know where it is going.
I do not like the headline as it suggests an u market. Hopefully it will happen, but the article suggests caution and uncertainty.
Historical Revisionism
USDA
Thu Apr 23, 2009 9:58 AM
I don't think there should be historical revisionism allowed at this website. You are fostering misinformation about the past.
1) The depression stimulus money worked, it stopped working when the president bowed to political pressure and cut spending later.
2) World War II was government spending, duh.....
Re: Historical Revisionism
DoD Agency
Thu Apr 23, 2009 10:15 AM
Perhaps "historical revisionism" is a good thing as our history books tell us that Roosevelt ended the depression. Perhaps he did, but only after Japan attacked Pearl Harbor and Hitler took over most of Europe--hardly part of the new deal.
Unfortunately, in today's society, simply stating two different points of view may qualify as "historical revisionism" if the person taking offense does not see full adoption or cheerleading for his particular point of view.
good article; I was not aware of our current stock market's similarity to the 1930's and that the new deal did not seem to have any impact until two years into the war--if it had any positive impact at all. It should give all of us concern for our current direction in spending and investing
Re: Historical Revisionism
Federal
Fri Apr 24, 2009 7:31 AM
but to those who keep knocking the new President's current plan, I say, if you have something better to add or make the market and economy better then by all means share!!! If not, then wait and see, its easy to be a heckler, it takes intelligence and courage to come up with a solution....
TSP
Retired
Thu Apr 23, 2009 10:05 AM
No. Unemployment is still on rise. Foreclosures are still on rise. This is a fool's market. Less equities (stocks); more balance and cash is king.
historical charts are neat to look at, but...
FED GOVT
Thu Apr 23, 2009 10:22 AM
Sell high...buy low.
Don't buy into rallies...sell into rallies...
Charts cannot help you with above common sense approaches.
And, forget what the talking financial talking heads are saying on a daily basis...next week they will be saying something different. Nobody knows the future.
Those that believe follow chartists - just missed out on an unbelievable rally and are, probably, foolishly buying now...
Last...never forget the old stock market adage: Walk away in May...come in SEP/OCT. This summer we all will have another great buying opportunity. Be patient.
Good luck.
China's Investment in our Future
Department of Interior
Thu Apr 23, 2009 10:37 AM
What happens when the Chinese cash in their T-Bills? Given the concerns in China concerning our spending and economic conditions, the possibility certainly exist and I'm not sure if the present administration is prepared to address the issue.
Question
DOD
Thu Apr 23, 2009 10:41 AM
I'm wondering if the "market timers" bought back into the c, s, and i funds yet...or did they miss large, short term gains, as it the danger?
Article above
OPM
Thu Apr 23, 2009 11:10 AM
Of course, even the government can't entirely waste trillions of "stimulus" dollars being thrown at the recession. Undoubtedly, there will be some "bounce," as a result. The problem is that this is akin to going on a spending spree with a credit card. It's fun while it lasts, and a good time is had by all - until the day of reckoning comes and the next billing cycle statement arrives. The "stimulus" funds represent the expenditure of massive amounts of borrowed money, the impact of which will be short-term, if not ephemeral, following which will follow the hangover represented by a national debt that has tripled. To put that in prespective, within less than a decade, we'll be paying $1 trillion annually just in interest payments. This is exquisitely timed to coincide with the implosion of the Social Security system, which will become effectively bankrupt by 2017, when incoming FICA taxes are for the first time since 1935 exceeded by Social Security benefit outlays. Ah well.
Re: Article above
DOD
Thu Apr 23, 2009 12:03 PM
Re: Article above
Fed Agency
Wed May 13, 2009 10:29 AM
Numbers
None
Fri Apr 24, 2009 7:58 AM
The beauty of numbers is that they’ll say anything. Thirty percent increases following 40 percent losses sound good, but the numbers say you’ve still lost – plenty ! Stock valued at 100 loses 40 percent and its value falls to 60. It then gains 30 percent. Many think the value is now 90, when it is only 78 as losses and gains compound.
Government spending does not return prosperity for a simple reason – those dependent on the largesse are not expanding their purchasing. At last estimate Americans recently had $5 trillion of their private wealth evaporate. If folks are having trouble with home mortgage and tax payments, they are not buying houses, cars and big screens.
Re: Numbers
TACOM
Mon Apr 27, 2009 1:44 PM
How?
Just look at how Whirlpool traded today. Investors who use Wide Dips to buy on 10 or 20 point swings in the stock price have enjoyed a rally from $19 to nearly $50 in a few short weeks.
Unfortunately for TSP.. You can't invest in a specific stock. We stuck with index funds.... Self-Managed investment is a concept the Government would never allow but it creates wealth beyond your wildest dreams.
Re: Historical Revisionism (by Federal Employee)
VA
Fri Apr 24, 2009 9:14 AM
"but to those who keep knocking the new President's current plan, I say, if you have something better to add or make the market and economy better then by all means share!!! If not, then wait and see, its easy to be a heckler, it takes intelligence and courage to come up with a solution.... "
Well said, Federal Employee. I wonder if maybe those who are attacking President Obama's efforts are just hoping to divide the nation. Maybe they're hoping he WILL fail. Cutting one's nose off to spite his/her face?
Re: Re: Historical Revisionism (by Federal Employee)
dod
Sat Apr 25, 2009 12:02 AM
Do you expect everybody to keep their mouths shut when they see big problems in the direction we're headed? Obviously that makes no sense at all.
Re: Re: Historical Revisionism (by Federal Employee)
Fed Agency
Wed May 13, 2009 10:34 AM
Let's get back to being able to have an open discussion without one side always throwing out accusations and name-calling. That's nothing short of a diversion tactic, used by those who fully understand that the "opposition" is speaking the truth.
Re: Re: Historical Revisionism (by Federal Employee)
DoD
Tue Jun 2, 2009 10:24 AM
Re: Re: Historical Revisionism (by Federal Employee)
USACE
Tue Jun 2, 2009 11:22 AM
Caution
TACOM
Mon Apr 27, 2009 5:21 AM
History is meaningless. Dow 8000 is also meaningless.
It just means we went Nowhere after falling from 14000, because the DOW was 8000 on Pres. Obama's Inauguration. If anything, one can argue the Dow is down 1,000 points since January 6th. That is a very fantastic recovery to me.
The market isn't recovering or in recovery mode until at least DOW 8500. Now thanks to Swine Flu and Stress Test Flu we will drop lower this week just like last.
Breaking Even by Losing Worth
Not Offered
Wed May 6, 2009 6:53 PM
If you pump trillions of dollars into a dying economy, forcing organizations and government agencies to spend money, by borrowing money from China and international countries.. what do you get? An inflated dollar, which causes more $ to buy the same amount, for short term buyer assurance and a false sense of security but la ong term debt we cannot pay off that awaits for the United States and others like a Gorilla in the room. Yeah! Short term win, long term heart ache. Put your money in now and when it tapers, take it and run.
Stimulus money.
BOR
Mon Sep 28, 2009 10:12 AM
Look at it this way, There are approximately 210 million people legally in the USA (men, women, and children). If you take the 785 billion dollars that they gave to big corporations and divided it among the 210 million legal residents, then ever one of these taxpayers would get approximately $3,738.00 each to spend as needed. Now THAT would have been a stimulus package. We get the money, we spend the money, and they collect the taxes. The way it is, everyone for generations goes deeper in debit.