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The government shutdown hits week three with no deal in sight as Democrats and Republicans clash over healthcare, spending, and who should make the first move. Federal employees are caught in the middle and are among those hurt most by the ongoing political disputes.
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Gridlock in Washington: The Shutdown Showdown Continues
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https://www.fedsmith.com/2025/10/22/federal-employee-guide-for-surviving-shutdown-layoffs/
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Chapters
0:00 Second-Longest Government Shutdown Ever
0:34 Article on Tips for Dealing with the Shutdown
1:05 Status of the Shutdown Political Battle
3:52 Demands of Both Political Parties
5:10 The Shutdown Hurts Federal Employees
6:53 Probabilities of Ending the Shutdown
Show More Show Less View Video Transcript
0:00
The shutdown of the federal government
0:01
is now entering its third week. It's the
0:05
second longest shutdown in our history.
0:08
So, we don't know if it's going to set a
0:10
record, but it's certainly heading in
0:12
that direction. But what's going on with
0:14
it? Obviously, this topic affects a lot
0:16
of our readers on fedsmith.com
0:19
and the people that are viewing this
0:21
video. And some things are happening.
0:24
There's some changes. So, here's a quick
0:26
analysis of what's going on, when it's
0:28
likely to end, what the changes are, and
0:32
a little bit about how it might affect
0:34
you. Several people issued comments or
0:37
wrote comments on the last video uh and
0:40
sent in some email and basically were
0:42
asking, "What can I do? What about my
0:44
financial situation?" In response to
0:47
that, we haven't done a video, but we
0:48
did put up an article today on how you
0:51
may find dealing with the financial
0:54
aspects of the shutdown as it affects
0:56
you uh difficult and how you might be
0:59
able to minimize some of these and just
1:01
avoid destroying your financial future.
1:04
We hope you find that useful. But what's
1:06
going on now with the shutdown?
1:08
Obviously, it hasn't ended. First of
1:11
all, why are the sides so deeply
1:13
entrenched?
1:15
Obviously, there's a deep political
1:17
dispute.
1:19
I know in the government there is a
1:21
tendency and having worked for around
1:23
the government for several decades, I'm
1:25
very well aware of this. We try to be
1:29
inoffensive, politically correct, if you
1:32
will. But when dealing with the tough
1:34
issues in this shutdown, I'm going to be
1:36
very straight with you. First of all,
1:39
Senator Schumer, Democrat from New York,
1:41
been around a long time. He's under a
1:43
lot of political pressure. His job is
1:45
imperial. He probably wants, certainly
1:47
wants, like most politicians, to stay in
1:50
power. How does he do that? But first,
1:52
he has to show the far-left progressives
1:55
in the Democratic party, he's not a
1:57
pathy. I'm not going to give in to these
1:59
Republicans. I'm going to stand tough.
2:02
And he's got several disadvantages.
2:05
Chuck Schumer is going to be 78 years
2:07
old when he runs for office next. and
2:10
he's under pressure from people like AOC
2:12
on the left, Hakee Jeff also on the
2:16
left, Bernie Sanders also on the left.
2:19
And the disadvantages perhaps that
2:21
Senator Schumer is facing is he's white,
2:25
he's male, he's 78, so he's not a young
2:28
man, and he's Jewish. So, none of these
2:31
probably help him in an election in
2:34
which Democrats, especially far-left
2:36
Democrats, hold an advantage or a lot of
2:40
power. So, he's going to cater to that
2:42
group, I think, to try and show I'm not
2:45
a pathy. I'm going to win this thing.
2:47
Stick with me. Keep me in office. On the
2:50
other side, the Republicans, the
2:52
leadership, and that by that I mean
2:54
President Trump, uh, Senator Thoon in
2:58
the Senate, a Republican leader has some
3:01
very hard feelings about how they think
3:04
beliefs about what they think the
3:05
government should look like. They want
3:07
it smaller. They want it more
3:09
responsive. And they want it to run more
3:12
like a business. You may agree or
3:14
disagree with any of these for the
3:16
Republicans or the Democrats. They don't
3:19
want to on the Republican side cave in,
3:23
offend their base, show the base that
3:25
they're not getting the job done. So
3:28
from the Republicans and the Democrats,
3:30
neither side wants to give in.
3:32
Ultimately, something's going to give.
3:34
The political pressure is mounting. But
3:37
that's what's going on. And that's why
3:39
this has become so entrenched. Both
3:42
sides are pursuing a political strategy.
3:44
They're doing various things to try to
3:46
get public sentiment on their side to
3:48
win the political battle. But what it's
3:51
not doing is ending the shutdown.
3:53
At their center of this of the dispute,
3:56
looks look first at the Democrats. They
3:59
want to reopen the government only.
4:03
And they want to make policy changes.
4:04
They want to extend the Affordable Care
4:06
Act, the subsidies for the Affordable
4:09
Care Act, also known as Obamacare,
4:12
uh, and preserve some of these issues
4:14
that were resolved passed in the
4:18
appropriations process. And they don't
4:20
like how that came out. So, they want to
4:22
change that. Their current strategy is
4:25
to refuse to pass a clean
4:28
continuing resolution without those
4:31
provisions that would change the or end
4:34
the subsidies. Republicans want to
4:37
reopen first and then negotiate the
4:39
policy issues. That's really at the
4:42
heart of the dispute. Uh they want to
4:44
avoid mandatory spending or expansions
4:47
in a temporary bill. They'd want to if
4:49
they're going to have spending increases
4:51
get it passed in Congress where they
4:53
think at the moment at least they have a
4:55
slight advantage. So they're insisting
4:58
on a clean continuum resolution and
5:00
accusing Democrats of holding the
5:02
government holding up to achie to
5:04
achieve these spending provisions that
5:07
did not pass when the appropriations
5:09
were discussed. So all of this is
5:12
happening. It's heartfelt. I don't doubt
5:16
the sincerity of either side is wanting
5:18
to achieve their objectives. The ones
5:20
that of course that are the most hurt
5:23
are the federal employees. When I was in
5:26
the government back in the 1980s and the
5:29
government shutdown was first invented
5:31
under the Carter administration, the one
5:34
of the first terms that came out was
5:36
essential employees and non-essential
5:39
employees. These two terms were used to
5:42
describe two categories or create two
5:45
categories of employees. At the time I
5:48
saw this, I've already worked in the
5:50
government for a number of years by
5:51
then. I thought this is going to be
5:52
trouble and it has been. If you're a
5:55
non-essential employee, which I was at
5:58
the time, I thought I don't like this
6:00
because I think I'm doing a good job. I
6:03
think I'm essential. And I would guess
6:05
that most federal employees who are now
6:07
labeled non-essential think of
6:08
themselves in the same way. Politically,
6:11
it's a problem. If you're going to the
6:14
public and various documents and saying
6:16
these employees are non-essential,
6:19
what comes across is you don't need
6:21
them. You can cut these employees out.
6:24
You can make a smaller government and we
6:26
spend less. the government debt goes
6:28
down and it's everybody's better off
6:31
except of course the non-essential
6:32
employees who get furled or rifted or
6:34
laid off in one way or the other. So
6:37
it's unfortunate that happened but
6:40
that's politics. Uh I think there have
6:44
been some efforts to change the name
6:46
when you say non-essential that doesn't
6:48
sound good and the public tends to
6:51
support yeah let's have a smaller
6:53
government.
6:54
But what's happening as a result of
6:57
these discussions that are going on is
6:59
the probability and outlook of ending
7:02
the shutdown
7:04
is changing and I guess that's good. I
7:06
think it's getting a little closer to a
7:08
resolution. In a video that was done
7:10
earlier this week, I came up with a pro
7:13
probability
7:15
uh percentages. What's going to happen?
7:17
When's it going to end? Possibly lasting
7:19
until Thanksgiving.
7:21
Right now, I would say the short-term
7:23
continuing resolution reopening the
7:25
government before November 1st has about
7:28
a 65% chance of passing late October,
7:32
early November in that time frame. And
7:35
what's happening in part is something
7:37
called SNAP benefit benefits are at
7:40
risk. That's SNAP is just as short for
7:42
food stamps. That's going to put
7:44
political pressure on both sides. So I
7:47
think that's increasing the potential of
7:50
getting the shutdown resolved a little
7:52
bit quicker than I had thought
7:53
originally.
7:55
The second scenario is shut down
7:57
dragging until mid November. About a 25%
8:00
chance uh if the Senate keeps failing on
8:06
both of on getting the continuing
8:08
resolutions passed then that scenario
8:12
becomes much more likely.
8:14
Third is the major negotiated package.
8:17
That is a continuing resolution and
8:19
agreement on the policy details. I put
8:22
that likelihood at about 10% after
8:24
November 10th. That would require a
8:27
shift in leadership's policy on
8:29
Democrats andor Republicans. And public
8:32
pressure tipping one way or the other,
8:35
either in favor of the Democrats or in
8:37
favor of the Republicans. I don't know
8:39
which way that's going to go. Uh recent
8:41
polls show a slight advantage for the
8:43
Democrats and perhaps that's why Senator
8:45
Schumer is pressing forward, but that
8:48
remains to be seen. Uh the other
8:51
possibilities or other tipping points
8:53
that I mentioned in the previous
8:54
shutdown include federal employees not
8:57
getting a paycheck that's starting
8:59
October 24th. And then military pay not
9:03
going to the troops wherever they may be
9:05
stationed. And that's going to be a big
9:07
pressure point. So all of these factors
9:10
together I think are creating more and
9:12
more pressure. The question is when does
9:14
it become sufficient pressure so that
9:17
one side or the other of both sides
9:20
finally come to their senses and say
9:22
we've got to end this government
9:24
shutdown. I'll give you something. You
9:25
give me something. It's usually what
9:28
happens. Uh perhaps that'll happen this
9:30
time. We're hoping, I would hope it
9:32
would end by late October or early
9:35
November because a couple of the
9:37
pressure points will have passed by
9:38
then. That'll probably be enough to get
9:40
this resolution that we're seeking uh in
9:44
place, but it remains to be seen. In the
9:47
meantime, thank you for watching. Uh we
9:49
hope you find this information useful.
9:52
There are changes every day and when
9:54
this video comes out, by the time you
9:56
will see it several days later, perhaps
9:58
after it was recorded, there's probably
10:00
going to be other changes. We'll try to
10:02
keep our readers and viewers informed
10:05
about what's going on. Thank you for
10:07
watching.
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