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Key deadlines looming as federal employees miss paychecks and political leaders stay firm. Will the shutdown end soon—or stretch to Thanksgiving as political pressure mounts?
Related Articles
Paychecks Frozen, Politics on Fire: Washington’s Shutdown Enters the Holiday Zone
https://www.fedsmith.com/2025/10/20/paychecks-frozen-shutdown-enters-holiday-zone/
New Legislation Would Provide Immediate Pay to Some Federal Employees During the Shutdown
https://www.fedsmith.com/2025/10/20/new-legislation-would-provide-immediate-pay-to-some-federal-employees-during-the-shutdown/
Chapters
0:00 Introduction
01:00 Important Dates
03:24 What are the chances for resolving the shutdown?
5:25 Conclusion
Show More Show Less View Video Transcript
0:00
Couple of weeks ago, I wrote an article
0:02
about why the shutdown that is currently
0:05
going on is different than the ones
0:06
we've experienced in the past. I was
0:10
tried to be fairly optimistic. The
0:12
reality is that this shutdown is
0:16
different. It's quite a bit different.
0:17
The issues are different. The political
0:20
alignments, the political realities are
0:23
different. Both Democrats and
0:25
Republicans are digging in more than
0:27
they probably have in the past. I've had
0:30
the unfortunate experience of having
0:32
gone through several shutdowns since it
0:35
was invented in 198081
0:38
under the Carter administration by
0:40
Benjamin Civil, the attorney general at
0:43
that time.
0:44
And it's become a political tool. It may
0:47
benefit Democrats. It may benefit
0:49
Republicans, but both parties are not
0:52
adverse to using it as a tool to gain
0:55
political objectives. And that's what's
0:58
happening now. Several items are several
1:02
days are coming up that are particularly
1:04
important in deciding how long this
1:07
furlow is going to last. Is it going to
1:09
last until Thanksgiving? I think there's
1:12
a good chance it will, and I'll briefly
1:14
explain why in this video. The first
1:17
date is October 24th. Federal workers
1:20
miss their first full paycheck. Not all
1:23
federal workers, but still a few hundred
1:24
thousand. It's going to make headlines
1:27
around the country. When that happens,
1:29
people are going to be calling their
1:30
congressmen, their senators. They're
1:32
going to be complaining about it. And
1:34
obviously, there's going to be a lot of
1:36
news stories about how federal employees
1:38
are impacted. Families are hurt,
1:40
individuals are hurt. you're going to be
1:42
taking out loans in some cases, paying
1:44
interest on those loans. So, it's a
1:47
tough time. The second one is October
1:49
31st, military pay uncertainty.
1:53
At that point, it pay may come through
1:56
for the military. It may not. It did
1:59
short time ago. That's not certain it's
2:02
going to happen again. If that happens,
2:05
again, the political reality is military
2:08
personnel who are not getting paid are
2:11
probably going to get even more
2:12
publicity than federal workers who
2:14
aren't getting paid. People who were
2:16
stationed overseas uh in dangerous
2:19
situations not getting paid. That's a
2:22
tough political
2:24
argument and it's going to create
2:26
pressure for Democrats and Republicans.
2:29
Who it's going to put the most pressure
2:31
on and which part is going to feel the
2:32
most pressure, I don't know, but it's
2:35
going to create a lot of pressure to
2:37
reach a settlement. Finally, November
2:40
1st, Affordable Care Act open enrollment
2:44
begins. That's going to affect millions
2:46
of Americans and it's going to make a
2:49
lot of politicians uncomfortable. Now,
2:52
perhaps in that case, it affects the
2:54
Democrats less than Republicans because
2:56
the Democrats are arguing that the
2:59
Republicans are trying to hurt Americans
3:01
by not passing uh subsidies or continued
3:04
subsidies for Obamacare.
3:08
Whether that takes hold, whether that
3:10
becomes the dominant public opinion
3:12
remains to be seen. But these are the
3:15
items that are coming up and the
3:16
pressure is going to continue and
3:18
ratchet upwards every date that of every
3:22
one of these dates when it comes around.
3:24
What are the chances for settlement?
3:26
I've listed three. The first I've called
3:29
an early breakthrough. That is we'll get
3:31
a
3:33
a resolution in the political arena by
3:36
October 24th or October 31st based on
3:39
those two dates that I mentioned
3:41
earlier. The winners in that case would
3:43
be federal employees and political
3:44
moderates in both parties. The losers
3:47
would be those who are taking a strong
3:49
hard position in both parties and who
3:52
are trying to use the shutdown as
3:53
leverage. The second possibility is
3:56
standing off until Thanksgiving.
3:59
That's the start of the American holiday
4:02
season. Uh airports are packed, roads
4:05
are packed, people are traveling all
4:07
over the country. They fly a lot of
4:10
places. There's a possibility air
4:12
traffic controllers may not shut show
4:14
show up for work. That's going to
4:16
create, if it does happen, a very huge
4:19
political problem for the political
4:23
parties who haven't reached an
4:24
agreement. So, we'll have to see.
4:27
There's a possibility that hardliners
4:30
that people are both parties are still
4:32
taking a hardline position. So, it
4:35
doesn't have to end during then if they
4:37
withstand the political pressure. We'll
4:40
see.
4:41
Uh the final possibility which I think
4:43
has less chance 20% chance versus 50% of
4:48
a standoff ending around Thanksgiving
4:51
before Thanksgiving holiday really
4:52
starts is an extended impass. The
4:56
shutdown stretches into December echoing
4:58
the 2018 and 2019 record shutdowns. This
5:03
would means mounding operational
5:05
problems, a bigger hit to the economy
5:08
and more political pressure, more
5:11
financial damage being done to the
5:12
economy
5:14
and some kind of a resolution probably
5:17
occurring then as one side of the other
5:20
becomes viewed more favorably by the
5:22
public, Republicans or Democrats,
5:24
remains to be seen. There's a lot at
5:26
stake. There's a lot of political
5:29
pressure and there's a lot of political
5:31
gains to be had or political losses.
5:34
We'll see what happens. Who's the
5:36
winner? Who's the lo? Who's the loser?
5:39
Certainly political pressure uh from
5:42
federal employees is making a
5:44
difference. But we'll have to see how
5:46
this finally plays out as it comes at to
5:49
a close. will uh at FedSmith try to keep
5:53
you informed as to who's winning, who's
5:55
losing, uh how this is going to possibly
5:58
affect your career, your finances, and
6:01
we certainly our thoughts will be with
6:02
you. We wish you the best of luck.
6:04
Thanks for watching.
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