Presidential Survey Shows Trump With Majority of Votes
Polling of voters is omnipresent during a presidential election year. Polls show that the upcoming election between Harris and Trump is very close.
Federal employee unions are the elected representatives of many employees in the federal government.
These organizations are free from restrictions of the Hatch Act even though their officers and representatives are usually federal employees. But, as those who work with the federal government know, the workforce is largely independent and free to vote as they see fit regardless of the rhetoric emanating from the federal unions’ press offices— usually overwhelmingly supporting Democrats with their time and money.
FedSmith asked readers about their presidential preference in the upcoming election. With more than 2,500 responses, 52.8% of those responding preferred Donald Trump. 43.7% voted for Kamala Harris. 3.6% preferred “other” candidates.
Current Position of Presidential Survey Respondents and Interest in Election
63.8% of the survey respondents indicated they were current federal employees. 33.2% indicated they are retired federal employees. 1.3% identified as retired military. 0.3% identified as a federal contractor, and 0.2% said they worked for a federal employee union.
A smaller percentage of respondents (51.1%) indicated they thought Trump would win the election.
With the usual massive publicity surrounding the election, it is not surprising that 74.5% of those responding noted they were “extremely” interested in the election and 16.2% said they were “very” interested.
Displaying the negative overtones of this year’s election cycle, the biggest motivator for those voting was “Fear of the other candidate” with 66.9% of the vote. 33.1% opted for “Enthusiasm for your candidate.” Presumably, those who favor Donald Trump fear what will happen if Kamala Harris is elected. On the other hand, those who favor Harris fear the possibility of a Trump administration.
35.8% of respondents listed their political party as “Independent.” 21.1% identified as “Democrat” and 36.7% as “Republican”.
How Previous Polling Averages Fared in Predicting Election Results
According to the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of national presidential election polls, Kamala Harris has an advantage of 1.7% at this time.
In 2020, the RCP average showed that Joe Biden had an advantage of 7.2% over Donald Trump; in 2016, it showed that Hillary Clinton had an advantage of 3.3% over Donald Trump.
In 2020, Biden won with 56.3% of the national vote. In 2016, Trump won the election with 304 electoral votes while winning 46.1% of the popular vote.
A survey of FedSmith readers in 2016 showed they preferred Trump over Clinton. An October 2020 FedSmith survey showed readers giving a slight advantage to Trump over Joe Biden.
A survey of readers is not a scientific poll. Readers tell us if they are independent voters or have a party affiliation. We do not know if they are a registered voter, a likely voter, or if they have ever voted.
With regard to polling, the Pew Research Center wrote in 2021, “[T]he consistency with which most poll results differed from those election outcomes is undeniable. Looking at final estimates of the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential race, 93% of national polls overstated the Democratic candidate’s support among voters, while nearly as many (88%) did so in 2016.”
The organization also noted: “[I]ndividual polling organizations are also working to understand why polls have underestimated GOP support and what adjustments may be in order.”
We thank all readers who chose to participate in this presidential survey. We encourage all readers to vote in this year’s election. As indicated, polling results are often inaccurate in predicting the final election results. Showing up to vote is important.
