The Shrinking Federal Workforce

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By on July 23, 2018 in Human Resources with 0 Comments

Empty employee desk with a box of personal belongings sitting on top of it depicting RIF/layoff/workforce reductions among federal employees and/or the federal workforce

My most recent post discussed the idea that agencies may underobligate their funds in fiscal 2018, leading to reduced spending and loss of budget authority.

One way that can manifest itself is in reduced hiring. Although the Impoundment Act requires agencies to spend the money that Congress appropriates, there is not an effective enforcement mechanism. That is particularly true with respect to staffing levels.

Following my last post, I got questions regarding hiring numbers. Folks wanted to know if agencies are hiring at levels consistent with their budgets and past hiring practices.

I thought that was a great question, so I decided to look at total employment numbers from December 2016 and compare them with the most recent public data from OPM’s Fedscope tool.

What I found was that federal employment has dropped significantly. The table below shows the total number of employees for the Cabinet-level and large (1,000 or more employees) agencies.

Total employment in those agencies is down about one percent, but that number varies widely from one agency to another.

Among Cabinet-level agencies, the Department of State is down 9.28 percent, Education is down 12.94 percent, Labor is down 8.25 percent, and Housing and Urban Development is down 5.97 percent. Homeland Security is up 3.72 percent (mostly disaster recovery workers in the Federal Emergency Management Agency) and Veterans Affairs is up 1.73 percent. The Small Business Administration is up by 54 percent, also due to temporary employees required for disaster recovery work.

Table showing total numbers of federal employees at several major agencies as of March 2018

These numbers do not take into account the variations caused by seasonal hiring, but the agencies that have the biggest drops are not the larger users of seasonal hires. If we did not have the surge in hiring related to disaster recovery, the decrease in total employment would be even greater.

The bottom line is that federal employment numbers are dropping and in some agencies they are dropping significantly. For the first two quarters of the fiscal year, agencies chose to hire fewer new employees. Because the final appropriations deal was not completed until mid-year, and the Administration had proposed significant reduction in some agencies, one could plausibly argue that agencies were simply adhering to the President’s budget.

Now that we have real numbers, agencies should be hiring more people (and awarding more contracts). Whether that happens, or they choose to continue hiring at reduced levels, is not likely to be known until it is too late to do anything to change it.

Even if Congress wants to address the issue, there is little they can do to drive hiring and contract spending. The most likely mechanism would be floors on employment numbers (either in terms of employees or salary dollars) and similar requirements for contract dollars that must be spent. The likelihood of getting something like that passed is somewhere close to zero and it would be almost impossible to enforce.

As I have said before, the Executive Branch gets to execute. If it wants to reduce spending, as long as it does not step on too many toes of the right people in Congress, it can do it.

This column was originally published on Jeff Neal's blog, ChiefHRO.com, and has been reposted here with permission from the author. Visit ChiefHRO.com to read more of Jeff's articles regarding federal human resources and other current events along with his insights on reforming the HR system.

© 2018 Jeff Neal. All rights reserved. This article may not be reproduced without express written consent from Jeff Neal.

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About the Author

Jeff Neal is a senior vice president for ICF and founder of the blog, ChiefHRO.com. He has 33 years in federal service, including serving as Chief Human Capital Officer for the Department of Homeland Security and Chief Human Resources Officer for the Defense Logistics Agency. Jeff is also a Fellow and Director at the National Academy of Public Administration and a Partnership for Public Service SAGE.

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