Now that a government shutdown is underway, how many federal employees could be furloughed?
According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), as many as 750,000 federal employees have the potential to be furloughed each day at a total daily cost of $400 million.
That dollar figure is the total daily cost of their compensation, which of course would have to eventually be paid out as back pay. To put that figure into perspective, if the shutdown were to go for a week, that is $2.8 billion.
CBO notes in its report that the number of furloughed federal employees could vary by the day because some agencies might furlough more employees the longer the shutdown drags on while others might recall some initially furloughed employees.
The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has warned that there could be RIFs (reduction in force) as a result of this government shutdown. OMB issued a memo last week directing agencies to consider issuing RIF notices in the event of a shutdown. It states:
With respect to those Federal programs whose funding would lapse and which are otherwise unfunded, such programs are no longer statutorily required to be carried out. Therefore, consistent with applicable law, including the requirements of 5 C.F.R. part 351, agencies are directed to use this opportunity to consider Reduction in Force (RIF) notices for all employees in programs, projects, or activities (PPAs) that satisfy all three of the following conditions: (1) discretionary funding lapses on October 1, 2025; (2) another source of funding, such as H.R. 1 (Public Law 119-21) is not currently available; and (3) the PPA is not consistent with the President’s priorities. RIF notices will be in addition to any furlough notices provided due to the lapse in appropriation.
RIF notices should be issued to all employees working on the relevant PPA, regardless of whether the employee is excepted or furloughed during the lapse in appropriations.
Two unions sued the Trump administration, claiming that the threat to fire federal employees via RIFs during a partial government shutdown was illegal. AFGE and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) were the two unions that filed the lawsuit in California.
However, the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) revised its government shutdown guidance on September 28, just a few days after the OMB memo was released, in which it said that agencies are allowed to run a RIF during a government shutdown. According to OPM:
Can an agency run a RIF during a shutdown furlough? If so, can an agency issue RIF notices during the period of orderly shutdown before a shutdown furlough?
A. Yes, an agency can run a RIF and may issue RIF notices (prepared in accordance with the requirements in 5 CFR part 351, subpart H) when preparing for a shutdown furlough. OMB has determined that agencies are authorized to direct employees to perform work necessary to administer the RIF process during the lapse in appropriations as excepted activities.
The CBO report also referenced the possible RIFs and noted that it would be one way to help cut costs. It stated, “A reduction in the number of federal employees would reduce the daily cost of compensation for furloughed workers. Some agencies could use mandatory funding to decrease the number of workers they furlough. Doing so also would reduce the daily cost of compensation for furloughed workers.”
The Trump administration appears to be pressing forward quickly with its plans to use the government shutdown to slash the size of the federal workforce. Fox News reported that OMB Director Russ Vought told lawmakers on Wednesday that RIFs were “imminent” and “likely a day or two out.”
Vought also said that decisions about any layoffs will be made by agency heads according to what roles are appropriate under current spending levels and the Trump administration’s budget priorities.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed what Vought said about possible layoffs, saying that they will likely come in the next “two days, imminent, very soon.” She also said that the number of expected layoffs is “likely going to be in the thousands.”
Vice President JD Vance also said that laying off federal employees was a possibility if the shutdown lasts much longer in order to keep essential services running for the American people, although his guess was that it would be a short one. Senators, however, said they expect it to continue for at least a week.
Vance told reporters on Wednesday, “We are going to have to lay some people off if the shutdown continues. We don’t like that. We don’t necessarily want to do it. But we’re going to do what we have to keep the American people’s essential services continuing to run.”
He also said, “We’re not targeting federal agencies based on politics, we’re targeting the peoples’ government so that as much as possible of the essential services continue to function. But let’s be honest; if this thing drags on for another few days or God forbid another few weeks, we are going to have to lay people off. We are going to have to save money in some places so that essential services don’t get turned off in other places.”
