For over two decades, FedSmith has been publishing articles about federal employee pay raises. Regardless of a president’s political party, some say that federal employees are better off under Democrats, while others believe they are better off under Republicans. This debate centers around whether the annual pay raise is large or small, depending on one’s perspective.
56 Years of Federal Pay Raises
How do pay raises under each political party actually fare?
The chart available at the end of this article displays the percentage of each yearly pay raise starting in 1970. This covers periods of high or low inflation, times of international tension, and times of relative peace and tranquility. Most of the raw data are from the Congressional Research Service.
This time period covers six Republican administrations and four for Democrats. In total, 33 years were under a Republican administration and 24 were under Democrats.
Highest Raises Under Democrats or Republicans?
For this 56-year period, the average pay raises are split almost completely evenly between the two parties.
- Average pay raise per year: 3.43%
- Under Republicans: 3.62%
- Under Democrats: 3.64%
Average Pay Raises by President and Party
| President | Party | Years in Office | Average Annual Raise | Total Raise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nixon | R | 5 | 6.64% | 33.20% |
| Ford | R | 3 | 5.60% | 16.80% |
| Carter | D | 4 | 6.60% | 26.40% |
| Reagan | R | 8 | 2.58% | 20.60% |
| Bush | R | 4 | 3.90% | 15.60% |
| Clinton | D | 8 | 3.38% | 27.00% |
| Bush (43) | R | 8 | 3.63% | 29.00% |
| Obama | D | 8 | 0.96% | 7.70% |
| Trump | R | 4 | 1.98% | 7.90% |
| Biden | D | 4 | 3.63% | 14.50% |
| Party | Years | Average Annual Raise | Total Raise |
| Republican | 33 | 3.62% | 124.10% |
| Democrat | 24 | 3.64% | 75.60% |
Despite it looking like there would be no raise this year, federal employees wound up getting a 1% pay raise in 2026, and a few fared even better with the additional higher raise for certain law enforcement employees.
As of the time of this writing, the average federal employee salary is $110,744 according to the Office of Personnel Management.
Presidents With Highest and Lowest Average Pay Increase
Analyzing the historical pay raise data reveals notable contrasts among presidential administrations. President Nixon’s administration stands out with the highest average annual pay raise of 6.64%, reflecting a period of significant wage growth for federal employees. Close behind is President Carter, whose average raise of 6.60% also indicates strong increases during his tenure.
Conversely, President Obama’s administration recorded the lowest average annual pay raise at just 0.96%, highlighting a period of restrained wage growth likely influenced by economic challenges and low inflation. President Reagan’s administration also saw relatively low average raises at 2.58%, which may reflect the fiscal policies and economic conditions of the 1980s.
These figures underscore how economic factors such as inflation rates and broader economic health influenced pay raise decisions. For example, during Nixon’s presidency, inflation ranged from 3.3% (1971) to 12.3% (1974), which may have influenced higher raises to maintain purchasing power. In contrast, Obama’s years saw lower inflation rates, ranging from 0.7% (2015) to 3% (2011), coinciding with more modest pay adjustments.
The highest inflation rate was under President Carter. During his administration, inflation ranged from a low of 8.9% (1981) to a high of 13.3% (1979).
It is important to consider that these averages represent nominal raises and do not account for inflation-adjusted purchasing power. Additionally, political priorities, budget constraints, and economic cycles all play roles in shaping federal pay raise policies.
Pay Raises by Year: 1970-2026
The pay raises are listed by year and the percentage increase for each year. The totals are displayed in the chart segments in color at the end of each administration and the overall totals for all years are at the bottom of the chart.
Conclusion
Over the past 56 years, federal pay raises have varied significantly depending on the administration and broader economic conditions. While Democrats and Republicans have both overseen periods of higher and lower raises, the overall average annual raises have been remarkably similar between the two parties.
The data show that the highest average raises occurred during the Nixon and Carter administrations, while the lowest were during the Obama years. Inflation and economic context played a critical role in shaping these outcomes.
Understanding these historical trends helps provide perspective on current and future federal pay raise debates. It highlights the complexity behind pay raise decisions, which are influenced by political, economic, and social factors beyond simple party affiliation.
